The Olympic Games are upon us so it’s time to set those alarm clocks and strap in for 16 days of non-stop sporting action. Although while officially under way on Friday, it’s actually 18 days in total as women’s softball and football prelims begin on Wednesday.
It will be a Games like no other with an almost total absence of spectators in Tokyo due to Covid restrictions. Hopefully those virus concerns will take a back seat once the sport begins in earnest.
With well over 300 medal events across 33 sports, there is no shortage of betting opportunities. And with several of those sports attracting somewhat niche interest, there will be plenty of value out there with a number of short-priced favourites ready to be taken on. Our task is to find them.
I’m also looking to the home team in karate which is making its Olympic debut in Tokyo. There are two types being contested here: kumite - the more familiar combat-type affair where athletes score for kicks and punches as well as throws at close-quarters; and kata which is a solo demonstration of techniques akin to choreographed shadow boxing.
The reigning women’s kata world champion is Spain’s Sandra Sanchez, but that victory came on home soil in Madrid three years ago. The runner-up was hat-trick seeking KIYOU SHIMIZU, who also beat Sanchez in the 2017 World Games.
The pair have often met in the finals of the Karate 1 Premier League but this has obviously been affected by the global pandemic. Sanchez has won both events so far this year in Europe with Shimizu remaining in Japan.
There is very little to choose between them but, even without a crowd, there will be an element of home advantage for Shimizu. Sky Bet have her at 11/4 (against 2/7 Sanchez) and that looks too big to pass up.
Moore has been in the top three in each round this season but you don’t need me to tell you that odds of 6/4 represent poor value for an athlete with just one win from six events. On the other hand, the in-form Defay is a 16/1 shot with Ladbrokes. With all of the top six potential winners, the Frenchwoman is worth a speculative punt.
The specials markets, namely number of golds and medals, are difficult to get involved with simply due to the nature of the pandemic. Contenders could be quarantined after testing positive or coming into close contact with someone who has.
That said, I think there’s a fair chance Great Britain will struggle to win golds in Tokyo. The track cycling team’s dominance in Rio appears unlikely to be repeated, and the likes of Mo Farah, Nicola Adams and Alistair Brownlee are simply irreplaceable. Andy Murray and Charlotte Dujardin surely won’t reprise their Rio successes and the rowing squad looks weaker as well.
The bookies expect Britain to tally around half of their total of 27 golds in Rio and I think that’s optimistic. Having looked around, the best odds I can see is BoyleSports’ even money for UNDER 14.5 GOLDS. That looks generous with Ladbrokes the same price about Britain winning under 13.5 golds.
Posted at 1210 BST on 19/07/21
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