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8.05pm - Sky Sports Main Event
Can the Titans do it again!? That’s the big question in this AFC title showdown with surprise package Tennessee looking to add an upset win at Arrowhead to a CV that already includes victories at New England and Baltimore. On that form they have every chance.
Can lightning really strike three times though? Well it all seems to rest on the bulky shoulders of Derrick Henry, the running back colossus who has left defenders bruised, battered and beat-up in his wake when piling up 377 yards in those two shock wins.
Knowing he’s coming is one thing, stopping him is another. He even produced a touchdown pass against the Ravens just for good measure and after he bullied his way to 188 yards against the Chiefs in Week 10 they know exactly what he can do.
Stopping Henry will be priority number one, two and three for the Chiefs – not only is his production damaging but the Titans can control possession and the clock if Kansas City can’t stop him gaining yard after yard.
Not that possession is everything – the Chiefs had the ball for just over nine minutes less than Houston last week but ended up with 51 points in their incredible comeback victory, when they just about summed up their team in one game.
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11.40pm Sky Sports Main Event
Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback left with a Super Bowl win, the future Hall of Famer is the stand-out name in the final four, regardless of the potential shown by some of the rest, and yet his Green Bay side are bigger outsiders at San Francisco than Tennessee are at Kansas City!
The oddsmakers have made San Fran such big favourites for three reasons – the 49ers are at home, they looked scarily good defensively last week, and they inflicted a 37-8 beatdown on the Packers earlier in the season. The Niners are healthier than they were in that November game, but Green Bay are better having won six straight games since.
This is play-off football though, and scar tissue from the regular season doesn’t usually have an impact under the increased pressure of the post-season. Teams that won a game by 25 points or more are 22-14 in play-off rematches so although they do usually win it’s by no means a sure thing.
If you’re looking for a more conclusive omen for the situation - the Packers are just the fourth team to have a 13-win season and yet by seven-point underdogs in the Conference title game. The previous three all won.
So that’s history out of the way, what about the on-field keys to victory? Well, a major one will be how Green Bay’s offensive line can keep San Francisco’s monstrous defence at arm’s length and give Rodgers time to try and dissect the 49ers’ top-notch secondary.
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