The draw for the defending champion could hardly have been kinder. Of the players in Pool B, few have been struggling as badly as Kevin Kisner of late - the fact that these struggles have taken place on courses so well suited to his game is particularly disconcerting. The same goes for Pool D, from which out-of-form Bernd Wiesberger looks a much more straightforward opponent than, say, Luke List or Shubhankar Sharma. Even Pool C, within which were Ryder Cup players Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson, threw Johnson a handy enough opponent. Adam Hadwin is enjoying a fine year and fared reasonably well on his Presidents Cup debut, but lacks match play pedigree and makes his debut in this event. Johnson should arguably head the outright market.
So far, Justin Thomas has really struggled in this format. In fact, seven singles matches show six defeats and the sole victory came against Chris Wood. He's lost to the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth, but also to Kevin Na and Jamie Donaldson. The question for punters is does this reflect some kind of long-standing issue, or will a combination of better luck and a seriously improved model see an improvement in results? I lean strongly towards the latter, and it's notable that Thomas hasn't been thumped in any one of these games, but I'm not sure he's much value at 12/1. Largely, that's because his group includes the in-form Luke List, who will want revenge after losing a play-off to Thomas at the Honda; Francesco Molinari, who has Ryder Cup experience and makes few mistakes; and Patton Kizzire, who is one of the best putters in this tournament. Should Thomas navigate this group he'll be a huge threat, but there's a suspicion he might be vulnerable to an upset.
While the case for DJ is positive and the case for Thomas negative, the case for Jon Rahm sits somewhere in-between. On the one hand, we've a player born for match play, who made the final on his debut in the event last year, who has since taken his tally of top-grade titles from one to four and who has contended just about everywhere he's teed up this year. On the other, we have a sneakily tricky group. Kiradech Aphibarnrat has won three of his last 10 starts and while at a considerably lower level, let's not forget he also finished fifth in the WGC-Mexico. He's won the Paul Lawrie Match Play and the World Super 6 and is a fearless competitor who will pose a real threat to Rahm on Friday - particularly if he's built confidence with two earlier wins. Chez Reavie has played some of his best golf in 2018 while Keegan Bradley's abysmal singles record shouldn't detract from the fact he's classy, motivated and with Ryder Cup experience. Prior to the draw I thought Rahm might be the man to beat and his performances here last year were outstanding, but enthusiasm has been tempered.