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Those who are tired already of world number one talk need to get used to it, because it's here to stay. Not so long ago, we knew who was number one and on the odd occasion injury cost Tiger Woods his place atop the rankings, it tended to be brief. Take your turn but the king will be back.

Now, the coveted position is changing hands frequently and the strength at the top of the sport is such that anyone slipping below their peak - see Rory McIlroy, more so Jordan Spieth - runs the risk of dropping outside the top five, or even top 10 as the latter did on Monday.

Brooks Koepka is the latest to pick up the baton and boy does he deserve it. Koepka's clinical major victories arguably ought to have seen him take over some time ago but his patience was rewarded with a dominant display in last week's CJ Cup and, at 28, there's little he has not already completed in the game.

One item to check off the list is a World Golf Championship and if he doesn't win this week's WGC-HSBC Champions at Sheshan, there's a strong chance that he'll cede top spot immediately to either Justin Rose or Dustin Johnson.

A year ago, this trio played out the finish of a gob-smacking event, one in which Johnson surrendered a six-shot lead through 54 holes with a closing 77. Koepka should've been in position to capitalise but he too suffered late in the day as a charging Rose went from eight back at the start of the final round to what in the end was a two-stroke victory.

As if we needed reminding, the outcome and the circumstances which helped create it had no lasting effect on Koepka, nor did they on Johnson. Indeed the former went ahead and won the Dunlop Phoenix a few weeks later while Johnson was next seen winning in Hawaii by a whopping eight shots. The idea of scar tissue building up in the minds of golf's more straightforward thinkers has long been exposed as ridiculous and if 2017 does have an impact on either player this week, it will likely be positive.

Dustin Johnson should've won this event for a second time last year but can make amends

Indeed, it's Johnson who looks the man to beat in preference to his number one rivals and McIlroy, whose record here shows six finishes between fourth and 11th to advertise the fact that the course quite clearly suits his game.

That record is hard to ignore, but it also bears resemblance to his form in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year and McIlroy tends to arrive at both events having been out of action for at least a few weeks. I wonder whether he'd be wise to tune-up in Malaysia or Korea, even in Europe, if he wants to convert here at last.

Johnson, like McIlroy, has been off since the Ryder Cup, but he's long been capable of winning off any kind of absence. That's demonstrated by the aforementioned Tournament of Champions success, his second in that year-opening event, as well as performances such as his second place in the Wells Fargo after an injury absence in 2017, and victory on just his second start back from the supposed jet ski mishap of 2012.

In fact when he won here in 2013, he'd played just once since the TOUR Championship before another short break and he's just not a player I worry about when it comes to supposed rust, whereas increasingly I do think McIlroy loses a shot or two if he's not got competitive rounds under his belt.

Johnson also arrives highly motivated. Yes, Koepka is his friend and he'll presumably be pleased for him, but we've seen Justin Thomas use Jordan Spieth's Open victory as a springboard to success in the very next major and the falling out between the so-called 'Bash Brothers' at the Ryder Cup might just add a little more intensity to Johnson's focus.


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In terms of the course, finishing positions of first, fifth, 35th and second, plus a scoring average of 68.69, show that it's absolutely ideal and so it should be, as a long, modern par 72 which offers risk-reward par-fives as well as a short par-four he can reach off the tee; one which demands driver after driver and favours those who keep finding greens.

Johnson ranked 13th in greens hit on the PGA Tour last season, placing him inside the top-10 among this field, and having led after five of his 16 rounds here this looks the perfect course for him to remind us all that while Koepka is the man of the moment, he's still as reliable as anyone in the sport when it comes to chalking up wins.

Beyond the front quartet there are various players who can be expected to play well but who, for one reason or another, make very limited appeal at the odds. Star Ryder Cup pair Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari would be examples along with the likeable Tony Finau and probable top-20 candidate Paul Casey.

By far the most tempting from the second wave of the market is Jon Rahm, who was creeping back into form before the Ryder Cup, ended it with a rare singles victory over Tiger Woods and has all the required attributes as he looks to take the next step forward in his career.

Rahm was down the field on his debut here in 2017, but it was his first full year as a touring professional and he was playing wherever he could, including Italy and Spain in the fortnight before. Having admitted then that he didn't know how much he had left in the tank, it's significant that he took a break following China before returning to win the DP World Tour Championship.

A lack of experience in the Far East is the key issue, although it didn't stop him winning on his debut in the Middle East, but on balance he can be passed over in a tournament where the market leaders do look exceptionally strong.

Instead I'm keen to give Cameron Smith another chance after he tied for seventh last week, found out by a slow start to the tournament.

Unlike Rahm, Smith has plenty of experience in this part of the world as it was in Asia that he secured his first card, immediately catching the eye with quality performances across the continent.

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