For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
When Rory McIlroy won his fourth major championship, the idea that he'd go four years without another would've been hard to accept. Yet here we are, approaching if not quite yet at the anniversary of his 2014 PGA Championship win, the grand slam still incomplete after a disappointing Sunday at Augusta and no further majors of any description added to his collection.
For some analysts, that represents underachievement and I suspect McIlroy would say as much himself. Yet there can be little doubt that among the many factors explaining his (relatively speaking) barren run, a significant one is the strength of the opposition, and that fact is underlined by the market for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.
Three years ago, McIlroy went off a well-backed 100/30 favourite for this event, the one he'd won to the sound of Jim Nantz's "welcome to the big-time" back in 2010, and he romped home by seven. He's won here from the front and from behind, both times in mesmeric fashion, and George Cobb's classical model is clearly one of the top-level golf courses most suited to Rory's game. Were it not for an inspired Rickie Fowler in 2012, he might've won this title three times.
Now, though, McIlroy is an 8/1 shot, and that's because Fowler, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and many more should ensure that he'll be made to work much harder if he is to succeed. Two of them, Thomas and Matsuyama, were part of a thrilling finish to the PGA Championship here in August before the brilliant Reed held off a takingly composed charge from Fowler on the final day of the Masters.
Nonetheless, McIlroy is by some distance the most tempting of the market leaders. His failure to ask a more serious question of Reed in the Masters will have hurt, but ultimately he arrives at one of his favourite stops with stroke play form figures of 1-5, and having shown that Tom Fazio's reworking of Quail Hollow hasn't undermined his affection for it, given that he was fourth post-redesign in 2016 and a solid enough 22nd when playing injured in the PGA.
McIlroy is the recommendation for those looking for a rock-solid option from the top of the market, but it should be noted that his victory here in 2015 came after the PLAYERS Championship owing to a schedule tweak. I would've much preferred him to have shaken off the post-Augusta rust somewhere and when the Wells Fargo has sat one week before the so-called fifth major, results have been a little harder to predict. For that reason, each-way options are preferred.
Truth be told, he's not shown that here just yet but did figure prominently in the ball-striking charts when last the Wells Fargo was played here in 2016, and perhaps significantly the leader in greens that week was Chris Stroud, who was down the field too only to step up and contend on his next visit in the PGA.
Furthermore, among the courses which best correlate with Quail Hollow may well be Bethpage Black, where former Wells Fargo champ Lucas Glover won the US Open in 2009 and where Grillo finished second to Reed in the 2016 edition of The Barclays.
His form at Muirfield Village in the Memorial Tournament is similarly noteworthy and six top-20 finishes this season, including third in Houston just prior to the Masters, suggest that he is playing well enough to take advantage of the right set of circumstances.
Others for the shortlist include Ollie Schniederjans, who was second on his last start in North Carolina but isn't driving the ball well enough to inspire confidence, whereas Lucas Glover and Kyle Stanley seem likely to play well without quite threatening to win, a comment which may also apply to the back-to-form Nick Watney.
Instead, I'll finish with the rock-solid Tony Finau and the wildly speculative Robert Streb.
Finau has finished 16th and 28th here in the Wells Fargo and fared reasonably well in last year's PGA Championship, so with last week's effort in New Orleans appearing to confirm that his ankle has recovered there's every hope he'll work his way into contention.
Another big-hitter who figures prominently in the driving and par-five scoring statistics as you'd expect, Finau looks close to his second PGA Tour title having twice finished second this season, and his last solo start was an excellent 10th at Augusta to secure a Masters return in 2018.
The strength of this field is holding up his price enough for concerns around his conversion rate to be overlooked and, like Hadley, he looks set to relish a return to worrying about just his ball on what appears to be an ideal golf course.
Streb is among the rank outsiders because he's been in abysmal form, but he wasn't playing well prior to finishing second in the Greenbrier last summer and, just like that event, he boasts a deep bank of positive course form at Quail Hollow, including fourth in 2015 and 22nd in the PGA Championship.
Chances are he's simply not in the sort of shape required to take advantage of his comfort levels here, but the arrival of his son last week could just inspire a big upturn in form and, given the venue and his price, that's enough to justify a small bet. Should the price dip beneath 300/1, I'd suggest ignoring all of this and focusing instead on the solid each-way credentials of the previous quartet.
Posted at 2100 BST on 30/04/18.