Since winning the PLAYERS Championship in 2018, Simpson has cemented his position at the top level of the game and two more victories in 2020, in Phoenix and at the RBC Heritage, showed again he is a man you can generally trust on Sundays.
This week he has managed to keep mistakes to a minimum, making only four bogeys to date and avoiding any of the card-wrecking doubles or triples which have befallen others. It's only been a slightly cool putter which has kept him on the fringes rather than right in the thick of things but he's as capable as anyone of lighting it up this evening, and looks unlikely to go backwards given his scrambling skills.
The seven-time PGA Tour winner is a man I am always happy to have on side on a course that suits his precision game and Simpson looks the best value going in to Sunday at 9/1, with three places on offer.
Behind Simpson on 11-under we have the pair of Rory McIlroy and Patrick Reed, who will keep each other company and give us a taster of things to come in the Ryder Cup this autumn.
McIlroy it should be said could easily be out of sight already this week however the frequent birdies have been offset by a steady stream of mistakes that have seen the Northern Irishman post seven bogeys and two double-bogeys across the first 54 holes.
Despite a double at the second hole, Saturday saw McIlroy produce a big improvement in his approach play from Friday and if he can build on his finish, which saw him play the last seven holes in five-under to get in to contention, we could well see one of those trademark Sunday charges of his to bag the title.
The problem is though we do not know exactly which Rory will show up these days and with him readily admitting in post-round interviews that his game is still not really where he would want it to be, I cannot trust him to avoid the mistakes today as he will need to if he is to get the job done.
Reed is of course a big threat however it may just be that the challenge of winning in consecutive starts on tour and defending this trophy, which he won on a different course last year, is starting to weigh on him and he began to look a little ragged down the stretch.
Those on 10-under will feel they have a chance if they can avoid mistakes but doing so at The Concession has proven to be very difficult. Simpson, however, is close enough to capitalise if Morikawa does struggle a little, and if the putter begins to sing then he could be the one serving it up to the leader come what promises to be an enthralling back-nine.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 28/02/21
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