Garrick Higgo was a brilliant winner last week but his fellow young South African, Nienaber, could be better suited to Torrey Pines. Certainly, Nienaber's abundant power should be a big weapon at the brutally long and difficult South Course, and while he'll probably run up a big number along the way, he could also be towards the top of the birdie charts. Totally unproven at this level, this freakish talent may well prove up to contending in majors soon enough and odds of 250/1 will tempt those who expect this to be all about big-hitting.
Third on debut at Torrey Pines and second last week, Vegas brings course and current form to the table. Also a proven winner on the PGA Tour who has three top-10 finishes in 2021, he's another who is outstanding from the tee and could therefore be at an advantage. Although yet to get competitive in majors he's a three-time PGA Tour winner who has played in the Presidents Cup, and is of interest in various side markets — but don't rule out a place in the top 10 and an each-way payout.
One of the most interesting outsiders is Smith, who is among the best drivers in Europe, and whose sole European Tour win came on its longest course. Back in that kind of form, he can also call upon a top-10 finish from the 2017 PGA Championship and providing his short-game holds up, odds of 400/1 could look really generous. That said all the trends are against a low-ranked player without a title in four years so perhaps siding with him to be something like the top English player makes more sense.
As with a couple of these, Walker is a proven major winner, and he played in the Ryder Cup five years ago. His career has been derailed by illness since then, but a top-six finish last time out was the product of quality play through the bag and suddenly there is hope. Whether he can build on it is unclear but he does boast four top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, always used to putt really well on poa annua, and hits it high enough and long enough to be a good fit.
Finally, look out for Kim at 500/1. He's the biggest hitter on the Japan Golf Tour, where four of his five wins have been under tough conditions. Desperate to get himself onto the PGA Tour, he dominated a recent US Open qualifier here in California, and before that was a staying-on 27th in the US PGA. Having once been 11th in an Open Championship, he's got a couple of eye-catching major results from just a handful of starts, and he's never been better.
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