Few things are certain heading into any major championship, let alone this one, but it seems clear that the 118th United States Open Championship will be among the better-received editions in memory. Even for this writer, unable to watch the US Open as a child and instead raised on a diet of Green Jackets and Claret Jugs, it's hard not to consider the 2018 US Open as the most exciting of this year's four, and that's all because of one thing: a long-awaited return to Shinnecock Hills.
Last year's experiment at Erin Hills produced a brilliant and worthy champion, a prototypical modern golfer, but not the test we've come to expect. Fairways made wide enough so as to protect players from the weather in the end protected them from thought and fear, as Brooks Koepka bludgeoned his way to 16-under and his top-level breakthrough.
In 2016, the problem was not the course set-up but those charged with making sure things run smoothly and fairly. Thankfully, Dustin Johnson saved everyone in summoning the quality to rise above the stupidity, not least the rules officials who failed to match the immediacy of their decision-making with the enormity of the situation.
And so it goes on. Chambers Bay, Olympic Club, Merion... all of these venues and others besides have been let down either by luck or, more often, misjudgement. The artificial protection of par has produced some infuriating set-ups which have done their best to undermine winners deserving of better.
Shinnecock should restore order. This is a course considered by many to be if not the finest in the United States, then a fixture inside the top five. It is more than a century old and has been lovingly restored, twice, always with the principles of its founder in mind. Experts in golf architecture consider this page one of the manual, the part of the so-called Golden Era we can learn most from today.
Floyd was concerned. He'd seen what these young bucks could do when presented with wide fairways and calm conditions, and baulked at the idea that Shinnecock could be left behind by the sport it has helped to build. Coore and Crenshaw's widening of fairways had been necessary but needed to be trimmed back, he said, and Davis was wise enough to listen.
What we're left with is a monster of a par 70, which weighs in at 7,440 yards, and fairway widths are still up on 2004, when Retief Goosen won in four-under. It's hard therefore to predict a winning score some 14 years on: on the one hand it's reasonable to suggest that the near 500 yards added onto the length of the course outweighs the increase in driving distances; on the other, the depth of the highest level has increased and these players will not have to putt on glass.
Fortunately, we don't have to work out what number will be required to know what it's going to take to win. At 7,440 yards, there can be little doubt that power will be an enormous advantage, especially as it increases the options available from the tee. Players have largely been coy on that notion so far, but the next circle of insiders reveal plenty. Ted Scott, caddie for Bubba Watson, said with confidence that a "long hitter will hoist the trophy" and he's not alone. He may also be right.
Thomas was favourite heading into the final round of last year's renewal and won his first major under the demanding conditions of Quail Hollow soon after, but it was extremely soft there and I've not seen quite enough from him under these conditions to get involved. Rory McIlroy is another who would be better served by a downpour which doesn't appear likely to come and while both are strong candidates, I have doubts enough to look elsewhere.
That leaves Jason Day and Justin Rose from the remaining market principals, and with Rose's record in the Open Championship a nagging concern when it comes to adapting to firm, fast conditions, it's Day who I found hardest to oppose. The best putter on the planet right now, he'll go really well if tidying up the iron play and five top-10 finishes in seven US Open appearances demonstrate his level of adaptability.
As for Tiger Woods, I am positive on his prospects but not on his price. Weighing up where he should be in the market has been one of the biggest challenges of the season, but if there's genuine value in 20/1 I can't see it, although I appreciate the counter argument when it comes to the second of my selections. For Woods, perhaps the next step on the road to major number 15 is to win somewhere else, perhaps even at Firestone.
Instead of taking another from the top, where Hideki Matsuyama's price did make me think twice, I'll round off a power-packed staking plan with Louis Oosthuizen and Gary Woodland.
The case for Oosthuizen is straightforward: few in his bracket have so consistently threatened to win majors this century, and his victory at St Andrews at the start of it suggests that Shinnecock could well be an ideal place for his second.
Oosthuizen has the grand slam of runner-up finishes in his locker, so we're a shot here or there from talking about a five-time major champion. That's at odds with his record outside of the four events which matter most and it's hard to fathom that he's not won in the United States, nor has he won a high-profile European Tour event since that Open triumph some eight years ago.
We are, however, talking about a major championship here and Oosthuizen has proven time and again that they bring out his best. He was runner-up at Chambers Bay despite an awful start and runner-up again in the PGA Championship late last year, with a top-15 finish at the Masters in the spring further underlining that he's entitled to give us a serious run at the places.
Crucially, Oosthuizen's form has improved this spring with fifth at Fort Worth and 13th in the Memorial and there's real encouragement to be taken from his work around the greens, which currently ranks among the best on the circuit. The chief issue has been his approach play and it will need to improve, but this sweet swinger is far better in that department than his numbers suggest and can turn it on out of nowhere, particularly under firm conditions.
As for Woodland, he is the most powerful of the four selections and there have been noises from within his camp that things are turning in time for this test.
Yet to really make his mark at the business end of a major championship, Woodland undoubtedly has the ability and this is the first year since 2011 that he's been able to attack them buoyed by a win earlier in the campaign.
Back then, he finished between 12th and 30th in all four and while a missed cut at this year's Masters means he can't match that streak, he could certainly bag his first top-10 and contend on a course which will play into the hands of athletes like him who hit the ball high and far.
Woodland's victory this year came in Phoenix and after a spring slump he showed signs of life at the Memorial, where his driving and approach play were both outstanding. He ended last year ranked 15th in the latter category and will soon be heading back towards that mark if building on a bogey-free closing round at Muirfield Village before heading out to Vegas to put the finishing touches on his preparations under the watchful eye of Butch Harmon.
Poa annua greens are fine for a player once runner-up to Rory in the WGC-Match Play in San Francisco and so often flirting with the leaders at Torrey Pines, and providing his short-game is in good enough shape I'm expecting Woodland's best major performance yet. Whether it's enough to win perhaps we'll see, but when looking for someone at a price who hits the ball a long way, he stood out a mile.
Posted at 2030 BST on 11/06/18.