Wherever you stand on golf in the Olympics, it's clear that the men's competition is lacking. The best players from Britain, South Africa and the United States, three strongholds of the sport, have elected not to play. Jon Rahm's positive Covid-19 test and the voluntary absence of Sergio Garcia leaves Spain to be represented by two golfers unrecognisable to casual fans, and headline-making Bryson DeChambeau has also been forced out.
The women's event is different: all of the world's best players are taking part, some in preference to last week's Evian Championship, which is a major. By contrast just 18 of the world's top 50 male players are in Tokyo and while that is partly because participation is limited to four per nation, it's also because some would rather focus on a lucrative FedEx Cup, or September's Ryder Cup, than the prospect of Olympic gold.
Perhaps when the Games takes place absent of concerns over a virus, be that zika or corona, things will be different. I doubt it, though, and it would surely make sense to either expand that cap on players, or better still to convert this to a mixed pairs event. Golf is one of few sports where men and women can compete against each other, and so much could be gained from showcasing that to the uniquely broad audience the Olympics generates.
Instead we're left with a weak men's event in which Collin Morikawa deservedly moves ahead of Xander Schauffele and even Justin Thomas in the betting, following his magnificent Open win. This mature 24-year-old has some Japanese heritage and seems genuinely thrilled at the opportunity to represent the United States as well as his sport in Tokyo, where securing a gold medal to go with his Claret Jug is within his capabilities.
The nagging doubt is that he's struggled immediately after all of his previous four victories, if only for a week or two, and it can be difficult for anyone to go again after (another) career-best performance. With Schauffele short of wins, Thomas a little out of sorts and late addition Patrick Reed having to overcome an exhausting trip from Minnesota, it may be that USA are confined to a bronze at best, as was the case in 2016.
None of this is to say there aren't others who will be equally proud or patriotic, but I would argue Smith is among a small group who would put this on a par with or perhaps even ahead of the run of majors we've just come out of, which will doubtless have left a mark on some of those who measure their own success via those four events alone.
Then we've the fact Smith's career really took off in the Far East, where he finished second in Indonesia and has been ninth at Fanling, which is a short, turning, old-school track doubtless somewhat similar to Kasumigaseki. The host course, approaching its centenary year, is typically Japanese in that it twists and turns both ways and it won't be for everyone.
Home hopes rest primarily with Hideki Matsuyama, who skipped the Open Championship and should be raring to go having recovered from Covid-19. Now a major champion, he looks more capable of carrying expectations than might have been the case but it's still a big ask and while he's twice a course winner, including in the 2010 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, odds of 14/1 look short enough on balance.
"For many other guys here, it's probably not a big deal, but for me it is," he said. "We're a small country, and we don't have as much an opportunity as other big countries have. To be covered by all those international outlets, to be part of history, to be in the Olympics and win a medal for my country would be awesome."
Niemann was a play-off loser two starts ago before a decent Open Championship performance, and his form book suggests he'll relish another classic, turning test. Already he's been second at Waialae, fifth at Habour Town, first and fifth at the Old White TPC, second and fifth on a Donald Ross design in Detroit, fifth on a Pete Dye one in Connecticut, and eighth at Colonial.
He too should find Kasumigaseki to his liking having been second at Harbour Town and excelled on home soil at El Camaleon, and the fact he was second in the World Cup when last representing Mexico is encouraging, especially as his partner at the time was ranked outside the world's top 700.
Also impressing in the Presidents Cup before being taught a thing or two by Tiger Woods in the singles, Ancer has the right game for this and has been one of the most consistent players around this year. He earns the nod over Shane Lowry, who is playing beautifully, raises his game for the big occasion and has form here in the Dunlop Phoenix, and who also looks an each-way runner in a field lacking in depth.
Of those at bigger prices, perhaps SEBASTIAN MUNOZ and JAZZ JANEWATTANANOND can compete for bronze or so even if the big prize does prove out of reach.
Munoz made it all the way to East Lake last year and has flirted with the world's top 50, with top-10 finishes there, at the CJ Cup (when it was held in the USA) and the BMW Championship showing how far he's come. Also 14th on a tight, tree-lined course in the WGC-Mexico and 19th on his Masters debut, he has enough about him.
As with my stronger fancies it's his form on potentially similar courses which really stands out, including seventh at the aforementioned East Lake, a win at Jackson Country Club, third at both Colonial and Old White TPC, 10th at Waialae and, just three weeks ago, fourth at TPC Deere Run.
As for Janewattananond, who was 14 when he played here in the 2010 Asia-Pacific Amateur, he's contended for a major (2019 PGA Championship) and while far from consistent, since becoming the dominant force on the Asian Tour he's gone agonisingly close to securing a European Tour breakthrough. Earlier this year he finished second on an old, tree-lined course in Kenya, and in 2019 he contended in Northern Ireland.
Once a regular in Japan (15 starts there in 2019), he held off quality operators like Paul Casey and Thomas Detry to win the Singapore Open and Thai Masters and had a bit about him even before joining forces with Pete Cowen, who has helped this teen prodigy to fulfil his potential.
"I don’t like to daydream and I don’t say things like I want to win the Masters one day or the Open. I won’t daydream except for the Olympics. The Olympics is different and I would often think what if I can win an Olympic medal. It’s so weird. I think it is the ultimate for sports."
Those comments came earlier this summer, and more recently he's got further wrapped up in the Games by watching compatriot Panipak Wongpattanakit take gold in the women's taekwondo over the weekend.
"Gunn (Charoenkul) and I watched Thailand, and it was pretty amazing even watching it on TV," . "We were like, 'Oh my God, this is happening and we’re getting a medal.' It kind of kickstarted our emotions a little bit and we’re now thinking it’s possible even in our sport to win a medal and let’s go do it."
Thailand has a strong hand in the women's event, but Kiradech Aphibarnrat was fifth in 2016 and Jazz looks a potential candidate to pick up a place in the top six or seven, whether or not he can fulfil that childhood ambition and earn himself a medal.
Posted at 1900 BST on 26/07/21
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