With a return to Augusta just six weeks away, the PLAYERS to come in a fortnight, and an engrossing weekend at Riviera behind us, the PGA Tour season really is in full swing. So far, so good from an entertainment perspective: it's hard to remember such a run of consistently dramatic finishes, from a week one play-off in Hawaii, inland to the west coast and another at Riviera. Six of the seven tournaments so far have gone down the 18th or beyond, and Patrick Reed made sure the exception was no less eventful.
If there is something that has been missing on the PGA Tour, it is victory for one of the very best players in the world, albeit some artistic licence is required here to overlook Brooks Koepka and Daniel Berger. Certainly, it's been a promising but frustrating start to life as a Callaway staff member for Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas has endured a torrid few weeks, Rory McIlroy has got progressively worse, Bryson DeChambeau hasn't really been a factor, and thanks to a poor back nine on Sunday, even Dustin Johnson might now feel a little underwhelmed.
Artistic licence again called for – Johnson jetted over to Saudi Arabia to pick up his dollars and silverware – but over on this side of the world, pre-Masters statements of intent have been a little lacking. But there is still time, and a restricted, World Golf Championship event, in the comforting surrounds of Florida and at a course which is expected to provide a proper test, could well be the place to start.
I didn't think he could do worse than Phoenix, where a double-bogey, bogey start essentially rendered my win-only selection a loser after 30 minutes of 'entertainment' before he rallied to finish 17th. And yet at Riviera, where his short-game was hopeless, his driving better than most but bad by his standards, and where his approach play is best described by a gif of someone shrugging miserably, he was appalling. Fortunately, it's more likely to have left a scar on me than it is him.
For all the noise, it was McIlroy's first missed cut since that infamous episode at the 2019 Open Championship, when he left Portrush in tears. One week later, he stormed into the lead in the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational and while confined to a place in the end, it was another demonstration that a lone bad performance can quickly be shaken off. Earlier that year, his final-round 61 to win the Canadian Open came on the heels of a missed cut, and another year earlier he won at Bay Hill after a missed cut at the Valspar.
Hovland also underlines the need to take amateur form with a pinch of salt as he finished fifth on his professional debut at Riviera last week, a course which had embarrassed him as recently as 2017. That excellent effort extended his run to a win and four top-six finishes from his last six starts, the sole exception a rust-shedding return in Hawaii, at a course whose sidehill lies make experience all the more important and one he hadn't seen before.
Among this sequence, Hovland was third on his DP World Tour Championship debut having stepped off the plane from Mexico, where he won impressively, and he also defied a lack of course knowledge to chase home Reed at Torrey Pines. From there he again overcame any travel concerns to be sixth in Saudi Arabia, all the more impressive from the wrong side of the draw, before an almost flawless, one-bogey weekend in the Genesis Invitational.
Now, the world number 14 gets to start on a level footing and the strength of his ball-striking is such that a difficult test like the one expected should be ideal. Any sign of those Florida winds (not much is forecast) is fine given his victories by the sea in Mexico and Puerto Rico, as well as at Pebble Beach in the US Amateur, and as he continues to produce world class tee-to-green displays there's no reason he can't win again in the weeks ahead.
Indeed it looks like being a huge year for the 23-year-old, who will be key to Europe's prospects of victory in the Ryder Cup, and he's one of the biggest threats to Johnson. I put him up for the US PGA at 50/1 over Christmas on the grounds that he will emerge as a player in the big events this year, and he's done nothing to deter me from a view which is surely shared by many.
Another danger to the very top of the betting might be BROOKS KOEPKA, whose win in Phoenix hasn't yet convinced everyone of his resurgence, despite the way he struck the ball that week and the things he told reporters.
Although struggling with a stiff neck which got sorted during the second round last week, Koepka has made clear for several weeks now that his troublesome knee injury is considered a thing of the past. Victory at Scottsdale, where he ranked second in strokes-gained approach, also answered questions as to his split from Claude Harmon and a shake-up to his equipment.
His only start since came at Riviera, and the main indeed only reason for opposing him there was the fact he's struggled at the course in the past. Despite his impeccable major credentials and the fact he hits a fade off the tee, Riviera just doesn't appear to suit him and in finishing 38th, driving the ball almost as well as he had in Phoenix, he produced his best performance in three visits to the course so far.
While his approach play numbers dropped off, I'm happy to accept that volatility which is in his make-up and note that only during a really hard, wind-affected Saturday did he struggle, posting a round of 77 which took him out of the equation. All things considered, I felt it strengthened his form book, rather than representing the backwards step which it might appear on paper, and believe he's far more likely to win this title.
With three wins including a major on his CV, two of them coming at Nicklaus-designed courses, Morikawa isn't easy to ignore. He's a bigger price than last week, when a six-six start ruined his chance but was followed by some impressive grinding to make the weekend. Second in strokes-gained ball-striking and approach, he did plenty right, but Sunday was an absolute horror show on the greens and it's enough of a worry.
In fairness to the PGA champion he's been up and down with the putter throughout the early stages of his career, but the final round of the Genesis brought nine misses from inside 10 feet and that's a lot to recover from, particularly while experimenting with a new grip. Although he holed a nice one from off the green which is not accounted for in eye-watering stats, from close to the hole he was abysmal.
Instead, Im's encouraging start to the year suggests he could take flight back in Florida, where he's contended on five of his six starts so far and bagged a first win in the Honda – again, at a course designed by Nicklaus. He's clearly at his most comfortable on Bermuda greens and everything he's done in Hawaii, Arizona and California can be viewed positively now that he's tackling a run of events made for him.
The Spaniard won on US soil for the first time since the Masters at the Sanderson Farms, and while this is of another level he's been driving the ball as well as just about anyone, and was close to the places in Hawaii, Dubai and Saudi Arabia as a result.
Last week's missed cut at Riviera is easily ignored, as he arrived late having suffered travel issues after the heavy snowfall in Texas. In the end, he'd still have been around for the weekend had a 10-foot birdie putt at his final hole gone in, and throughout two rounds his quality long-game continued to fire as it has for much of the season.
If he can build on that, Garcia is capable of demonstrating that he too is more effective on Bermuda greens out east than he is on the poa annua of Riviera, and contending as a result. Just look at his recent wins in the US, in Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia and Mississippi; in fact ever since his first, in Texas, he's never managed to pick up a title on the opposite side of the mainland and four places from 34 starts in California tells its own story.
More recently, his last 50 starts worldwide show two south eastern wins plus places in South Carolina, North Carolina and Florida, so this is surely where he's at his most dangerous and his play through the early stages of 2021 has been more than encouraging.
I argued ahead of the Tournament of Champions that his rare trip to Hawaii was evidence that he's desperately keen to make one more Ryder Cup side, and I remain of that view. It remains to be seen how one-time adversary Padraig Harrington assesses his merit should it come to that, but Garcia will be acutely aware that for him this is a final chance to do battle in the US and can raise his game accordingly.
Right now there really aren't many better drivers in the world and if his iron play fires as it did in Jackson, odds of 80/1 may begin to look generous. Seven places each-way in this small, lopsided field offer plenty of hope he can reward faith one way or another.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 22/02/21
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