As is so often the case, the best three-ball opportunities come away from the spotlight and the pick of them is THRISTON LAWRENCE, who tees off at 1209 BST alongside Fabrizio Zanotti and Alex Wrigley.
Lawrence is a player who has impressed all year, including when just ahead of Zanotti in third place at the Irish Open. After that he went on to finish 24th in the Scottish Open and having been 36th in Germany before all this, he's simply playing really well.
Key to his success is a quality long-game, his driver in particular firing on all cylinders, but he's a better putter than Zanotti for good measure. The Paraguayan is also in good form, his recent efforts very similar, but he's never been a factor in the Dunhill Links while two starts in the Open Championship read MC-MC.
In general, early is best in an Open, where everyone tees off from the first over a period of around 10 hours. Slower, links greens are always vulnerable to bumpiness as the day progresses and more specifically relating to St Andrews, it must be hard to wait all day to finally begin such a fantastic tournament, not least the 150th anniversary edition which we've been anticipating for so long.
Over the last decade, just two clear leaders have emerged from late tee-times and one of those was Phil Mickelson at Troon, where there was a significant advantage in teeing off in the afternoon. Otherwise, JB Holmes at Portrush is the only one to pass the best of the morning scores while it's also worth noting that (very) early morning and late morning are absent from the picture, although to some degree that reflects the strength of the groups who are given these less desirable slots.
Ultimately I think we're best looking for a morning starter with a touch of class, and as an added layer I'll throw in power off the tee. Though I'm far from convinced that the winner this week will have blasted their way to glory, the nature of the course, with holes like the 18th reachable with an iron for some, means the best scores may well be from individuals who make attacking golf pay if only in bursts.
McIlroy of course ticks all of these boxes and tees off just before 10am so perhaps there is some mileage in the odds after all, but by then I'm hopeful BROOKS KOEPKA might be on his way to the sort of low number with which he's very familiar at St Andrews.
Eleven of Koepka's 12 rounds here have been par or better and he's twice shot 64 at the Old Course, so having been 10th in the 2015 Open Championship when still very much getting to grips with links golf, he stands out as a real course specialist.
He's also something of an event specialist, with four top-10 finishes in his last five Opens, and this run includes the first-round lead at Birkdale plus coming up just short but bagging the full place return at both Portrush in 2019 and Hoylake back in 2014.
His latest Open round saw him shoot a best-of-the-day 65 to charge home at Royal St George's and as one of the finest major golfers of his generation, it probably won't surprise you to learn that he's also led both the Masters and the US PGA, as well as hitting the crossbar at the US Open. All told, he has three leads and seven more places in 33 tries, proving to be almost as profitable in this market as the outright.
All of this is somewhat undermined by the state of his game, but what we've seen from Koepka this year is that he remains capable in those short bursts I mentioned. At the PGA Championship he opened 75-67, the latter round bettered by just four players, and it was 73-67 at the US Open where his second-round score was the second best in the field.
In just a handful of regular PGA Tour events he's been second, eighth, 10th and 12th after 18 holes and returning to those major performances earlier this summer, we can draw some encouragement from the way he drove the ball at Brookline, and the way he putted at Southern Hills.
Given his record here, a potentially favourable tee-time on Thursday, and the fact he has got those low scores in him, anything 50/1 and upwards is worth chancing. His name would certainly slot in well alongside those at the top of the preview and he'd be high up my list of volatile players who are capable of finding a low round among a couple of higher ones.
Lucas Herbert is interesting to some degree, especially following some encouraging noises from his camp, but would've made more appeal had the wind been forecast to blow. Instead, I'll side with a player I've high hopes for but felt was a little short in the outright market, TOMMY FLEETWOOD.
Another who adores the Old Course, averaging just a shade over 68 here, Fleetwood's real appeal lies in his propensity for a low one in majors, particularly the Open. In 2017 he defied an opening 76 to shoot 69 and then 66, climbing over 100 places in two rounds, while a best-of-the-day 65 in round two of the 2018 Open saw him fly into contention.
He sat third after round one at Portrush thanks to a 68, a score he bettered on Friday and then again on Saturday, and then last year's opening 67 had him a shot outside the places in ninth. Even when his game was of a poorer standard here in 2015 he shot 69 to lie 18th, not far away from rewarding backers in this market.
Just as was the case when he made that Carnoustie move four years ago, he knows he has a deep bank of Old Course experience to call upon, under all kinds of conditions. He also has a high-profile first-round lead this year courtesy of The PLAYERS and after a brilliant weekend in the Scottish Open, where his driver purred once more, it shouldn't surprise anyone if he's right in the thick of things from the off.
Posted at 1100 BST on 13/07/22
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