Six majors have taken place since Shane Lowry won the Claret Jug in 2019, and not one of them an Open Championship. The wait is almost over. Raise those yellow flags and let the wind howl as Royal St George's, now a decade removed from its last turn, welcomes almost all of the world's best golfers for the 149th edition of the sport's oldest major.
Seldom does an Open Championship pass by lightly, leaving no discernible footprint. The courses and the conditions and the uniquely archaic way of things all but forbid that. This is the tournament which gave us our second Duel in the Sun in 2016, then something even better a year later. Carnoustie saw the little man from Turin overcome Tiger Woods and everyone else, before Lowry and the whole of Ireland thundered to victory at Portrush.
It's been too long, and it doesn't matter that Sandwich, as Royal St George's is so often referred to, isn't exactly to everyone's taste. This course cannot match the grandeur of St Andrews or boast the fundamental quality of Muirfield. It's probably not been as fair, whatever fair means, as Lytham, Birkdale or Portrush. Some will protest when fairways kick balls sideways, even having been softened. It should be easier for those of us watching to rejoice in ball meeting ground and its journey not ending there.
Luck is a part of all sport, but none more so than golf, an outdoor pursuit where the object is to get a small ball into a hole which is usually hundreds of yards away. Within golf, it is always there, but rarely is luck more apparent than in an Open Championship. And within Open Championships, perhaps Royal St George's, where the 396th-ranked player in the world won in 2003, and where outsider Darren Clarke followed suit in 2011, has been most exposed to luck's influence. Three-quarters of the top 24 when last we were here teed off on Clarke's late-early side of the draw.
This is why some love links golf and others, well, don't. Just last weekend, Matt Fitzpatrick was asked for his view, and summarised it with the word 'unsure'. "I like it when it's fair," he added. "I don't like it when it's unfair; when you can hit a decent shot (and) it doesn't get a bounce." Perhaps one of the reasons why this tournament has so often gone the way of a veteran, like Clarke, like Henrik Stenson, like Phil Mickelson, is that with age comes an acceptance that golf isn't really a sport of fair.
Maybe Royal St George's will be more accommodating towards good shots with so much rain having fallen in July, but it may be that a softer course is needed to compensate for the strong, northerly winds which are forecast along with sunshine and even a welcome bit of heat. Truly, the stage is set for a fantastic, restorative week and one which should reveal a champion who has shown that they can play a very different form of the sport.
By his own admission, Lowry hasn't been a prolific champion throughout his career, one which began in earnest when he won the Irish Open as an amateur back in 2009. Since then he's won four times, and here he is just behind Collin Morikawa in the betting, a player who has as many professional wins having joined the paid ranks a decade later.
Any other week, I could not justify their prices being anything but wide apart, but the Open is unique, and Lowry has shown that he has all the tools required to win it. His performance at Portrush was as dominant as we've seen in a major since Rory McIlroy in 2012, and it was not out of the blue: he'd prepared well, had won a big event at a course where coping with breeze is important, and his record on links courses could be traced right back to that rainy dream at Baltray.
With hands to die for around the greens, Lowry has an ideal game for this and it's that improved approach play which could again make the difference. The greens here at Royal St George's have been especially hard to hit, and while scrambling well could be important, my suspicion is that, like Clarke (2nd), the champion will have ranked highly in greens hit.
Lowry led that category last time and as was the case at Portrush, everything appears to be in place at just the right time. He's had the Claret Jug for two years now, and he may be keeping hold of it for another.
He did exactly that with a staying-on 18th in the Scottish Open and while it would've been even more encouraging to see his approach play really fire, ultimately it looked like an ideal way to prepare for the major which should suit him best.
English won that marathon play-off for the Travelers last time and had been third in the US Open before that, prior to which he might've won the Palmetto (albeit about six players, Hatton included, could say the same). His form is as straightforwardly progressive as you're ever likely to see, he's made 13 major cuts in a row, and he's done reasonably well in this including when 15th at Muirfield.
Significantly, that was in 2013, when English won twice. Eight years on and having been close to the edge of golfing extinction and back again, he's an even better player and one who has the tools to cope with Royal St George's, where like Muirfield the routing means players can rarely get comfortable with the wind direction.
That said I just prefer the claims of Berger, whose advantage in approach play (14th versus 86th for the season) could be significant given the strength of the wind and the contoured greens at Royal St George's which brought out the best in Clarke, long one of the best ball-strikers around.
Right now the problem is with the driver, which is troubling to some degree given that it's long been his strength. However, this is a course where as little as six-iron may be needed off some tees and it could well be that for a player struggling just a little from a technical perspective, a back-to-basics battle with the wind works wonders.
Back in September, when brutal weather at the Scottish Open led Ian Poulter to suggest conditions were the worst he'd seen in his career, Fleetwood meant it when he said 'I loved every minute of it', adding: "It's golf isn't it? Let's face it, with the money we play for these days it does not do any harm does it? It's fine. I'll play in it every day."
Form which is a decade old and nearly twice that can only be worth so much, but there's no doubt Garcia has demonstrated an ability to compete both here and at most Open venues, and his game has hardly changed.
As with all my selections, the Spaniard ranks particularly highly under windy conditions and it's worth noting that while just outside the world's top 50, he's in a similar spot to when last he played here. In fact back then he was 51st in the world after the BMW International Open, which is exactly where he is now, before ninth place saw him climb a few spots.
Fowler has been second, fifth, sixth, 14th, 22nd, 28th and 30th in an excellent Open career, missing the cut just once in 10 tries. It's a really strong return and speaks to his fondness for this kind of golf, where his natural flair and artistry can really sing.
Among that bank of form, sixth place came at Portrush and fifth here at Sandwich, where he played in the penultimate group on Sunday, while on his Open debut a year earlier he was 149th after round one and finished 14th behind Louis Oosthuizen. Again, he's so effective under these conditions, having also won a Scottish Open and battled a strong breeze in the Honda Classic.
"(I'm) very excited for what's to come. The golf is trending in the right direction, and I'm excited," was his verdict after the US Open, where his approach play was as good as it has been since 2019, and this tough customer is absolutely built for battling a strong breeze and sticking around when others cry enough.
The only player in history to shoot 62 in a men's major, which he did en route to sixth place at Birkdale four years ago, he looks a big player and more likely to give his running than Marc Leishman, whose claims are similar, and who could make it three Australian winners in succession in Europe.
Grace's recent form is stronger and ever since threatening to win the US Open at Chambers Bay back in 2015, he's looked capable of becoming the latest South African to win a major. It's not beyond him to contend in this welcome, overdue renewal, which will surely deliver regardless of the outcome.
Posted at 2000 BST on 12/07/21
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