Everything about the Masters build-up says this is among the most eagerly anticipated renewal in memory. It's 11/1 the field, there are 11 players shorter in the betting than the defending champion, and there are possibilities such as Tiger Woods winning a major championship again or Rory McIlroy completing his career grand slam.

Neither would've appeared likely six or eight months ago, as Tiger struggled to get out of bed following spinal fusion surgery and McIlroy called time on his season owing to a troublesome rib. Yet here we are in the first week of April, Rory 11/1 and Tiger 14s, both names jostling for position at the front of a crowded and competitive market.

World number one Dustin Johnson has been quiet by some measures, but won his first start of 2018 in a canter from Jon Rahm, the Spaniard who has lifted four trophies in little more than 18 months as a professional. Justin Thomas is close to usurping DJ as number one as he wins with greater frequency than any player on the planet. Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson, left-handers who combine for five green jackets, are both back with a bang. So are Jason Day and Paul Casey.

So strong are these players that I've not yet mentioned last year's runner-up, Justin Rose, nor major-winner-in-waiting Rickie Fowler. Henrik Stenson's modest Augusta record means he can be backed at 40/1, the same sort of price quoted about Alex Noren and Tommy Fleetwood as they complete their arrivals at global level. Matt Kuchar, placed again here last year before that famous second in the Open, is a relatively unconsidered 50/1 chance.

While we look at the scorecard and the leaderboard for evidence of previous form at the course, which helps explain even some of the surprise champions, the greens in regulation charts have been an equally accurate predictor of future success. Sergio Garcia ranked six a year before winning, Spieth had led when runner-up on debut, Bubba Watson is another who was sixth a year before his first green jacket, Adam Scott likewise, Angel Cabrera had been second, Mike Weir had been third, even Zach Johnson had been 13th.

Trevor Immelman had ranked third for greens on an Augusta visit prior to his winning one, Vijay Singh had ranked second, and Phil Mickelson had been seventh. In fact, every Masters champion since the turn of the century bar Danny Willett and Charl Schwartzel, the two who perhaps most benefited from the actions of others, had at some stage figured very highly for greens hit, the stat which ties together leaderboards here and always has.

What this suggests is that the player in question could return to the course knowing that they had played it better than they'd scored, better than we might assume, and that's a huge positive for Thomas, who ranked 11th for GIR on debut and sixth last year.

This method doesn't rule out many, but it should worry backers of Johnson, who has struggled to hit greens here since his first visit. Fowler and Day, the latter particularly poor with his irons over the last 12 months, also have questions to answer in this regard which Thomas does not.

For all the imponderables this event presents, what previous renewals tell us is that those ranking inside the top five in greens will have outstanding chances to win if they can manage their mistakes. On the strength of his first two visits, his improvement since the second of them, and his form all year, Thomas is firmly expected to be one of those five.

Another point which could be significant is how diligent Thomas has been in his homework. He was at Augusta after the Match Play to get some more experience under the belt, while it was interesting to hear Tiger Woods tell reporters that JT is always at the front of the queue for practice rounds both here and elsewhere. Thomas meanwhile says he tries to play with Augusta pro Jeff Knox (klaxon!) when in town as he seeks to learn where not to miss.

Finally, his preparation has been near perfect. Speaking prior to the Honda Classic that he'd go on to win via the first of two successive play-offs, Thomas said he felt he just needed to get in contention again to establish some momentum. Beating Luke List there before forcing extra holes against Phil Mickelson in Mexico means he's done what he felt he needed to do and more.

As for concerns around the world rankings, which he said were a distraction in the Match Play as he missed the opportunity to go top, I simply don't have any. As he showed in the PGA Championship, Thomas is an extremely quick learner who can draw on mistakes and ensure they are not repeated. Besides which, if he makes the turn on Sunday in contention for a green jacket, I can't imagine that the prospect of reaching world number one will be anywhere near the front of his mind.

Ultimately, I believe Thomas's play over the last year makes him the man to beat, and I expect him to improve on his Masters form and demonstrate that his is an ideal game for Augusta National. Should he do that, he won't be far away and nobody is as good at winning right now.

While JT gets the headline vote, I don't see any great need to make the case against the rest of those at the front of the betting. Each has their chance, and each is well worth considering, but truth be told only Spieth came close to selection alongside Thomas.

Spieth's record here is outstanding - he's led at the conclusion of eight rounds from just 16 played - and he did what he needed to do at Houston last week. As I've said before, he's the best in the sport at priming himself for majors (see: three wins in three seasons) and I wouldn't want to talk anyone out of a bet on the 2015 Masters champion.

If there's anyone who does deserve to be ahead of JT in the market, it's his close friend and I had expected to side with Spieth, only for his performance in the Houston Open to have had more of an impact on his price than hoped. Reluctantly, he's left out of the staking plan as a result but if you want to take a very straightforward approach, backing the pair is a viable option.

Instead, the combination of generous each-way terms and the tendency for this tournament to be won by someone who is both world-class and somehow slightly off the radar leads me towards Hideki Matsuyama at what could be a gift of a price.

Matsuyama went off 12/1 for last year's PGA Championship, an event Thomas won at a remarkable 50/1, and I wonder whether we could see the Japanese do as Thomas did and remind us of the dangers of short-termism in betting with his first major success.

His record at Augusta reads 5-7-11 over the last three years and he's placed in a US Open plus the last two PGA Championships - indeed, for much of the last one it appeared likely that those short prices were going to be justified at Quail Hollow.

All things being equal, he'd have arrived at Augusta among the sub-20/1 collection, but a wrist injury incurred at the Phoenix Open both put an abrupt end to his encouraging start to the season and undermined his preparations for the Masters. Matsuyama was sidelined for over a month and has managed just one stroke play start since, which leaves the risk that he's undercooked.