Fleetwood has only twice broken 70 here – but on both occasions he shot 66. Bear in mind that it took course specialist Rose no fewer than 59 rounds to beat 67 here, and Padraig Harrington's best is 68 from 48 attempts. Harrington's got four top-10s to his name so the course suits, it's just that it's both difficult and very rare to shoot something better than four- or five-under here.
Yes, one of Fleetwood's rounds came in that lower-scoring-than-usual November edition but he shot the same score on a difficult Saturday in 2018 and his pre-Sunday scoring average here is well under-par. As for his current form, he led The PLAYERS after round one courtesy of another 66 and sat 12th following a 67 on his sole subsequent stroke play start at the Valspar Championship.
Rewind to the start of the year and he shot 68, 67 and 66 in his openers in the Middle East, confirming that he's definitely an improved golfer following a disappointing 2021. Despite struggling to put four rounds together, though, he has been inside the top 10 after round one no fewer than 10 times since last year's Masters, and he's well capable of breaking 70 here to get right in the mix.
Henley sits third in first-round scoring average this season and was 11th last. He led the US Open, the Houston Open and the Wyndham Championship in 2021, hitting the frame in the RSM Classic, World Wide Technology Championship, Sony Open and Honda Classic since the beginning of the year and marking himself down as a habitual fast starter.
He's also a Georgia boy who has played here five times, and twice been inside the top six following the first round. And his last look at Augusta saw him card his best round yet, a Sunday 67 to finish 15th. With some of the best ball-striking on the PGA Tour and a putter that can still run very hot for all it isn't consistent, he looks an ideal candidate from a group of Masters specialists teeing off at lunchtime.
I can't resist adding RYAN PALMER, the halfway leader last week in Texas. He's out early and, like Henley, has twice gone well in this market from just a handful of Masters starts. Last April he ended a six-year wait to play here again and fired a Friday 68 to climb just outside the top 10, and while not in the best of form lately he's been inside the top 10 after four of his seven opening rounds in 2022.
That's often been the way with Palmer, who has a dozen first-round leads in his career including in a major championship, and if he can warm the putter up for just one day then we could be in business.
I'll also take him to win a weak three-ball (1344 BST) featuring Masters debutant KH Lee and veteran Vijay Singh. The latter hasn't been a factor here for some time now and Lee missed his first cut in a while last week, struggling with all aspects of his game.
Padraig Harrington is a tempting option if you want a morning banker but I'll double Palmer with LUKE LIST, who is in with Mackenzie Hughes and Matthew Wolff (1439 BST).
Hughes has struggled here and his form is unimpressive right now, with his long-game particularly poor at the Valspar. He's failed to break par in any of his six Augusta rounds and has opened with 79 in 2017, and 72 last April. It'll be a surprise if he's a factor this week.
Wolff has the talent to outperform big odds and is more of a worry, but his form on the PGA Tour this year reads 64-MC-61-MC-60, and he was very frustrated with himself when exiting the Match Play tamely. He was disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard on his second Masters attempt having missed the cut on his first.
Posted at 1220 BST on 06/04/22
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