A year ago, the PGA Tour stumbled into suspension on an infamous Friday at the PLAYERS Championship, less than 72 hours after a Chainsmokers concert (nope, me neither) in front of massive crowds. C.T. Pan had already withdrawn from one of the most important events on the calendar, but others were to be guided by a Tour whose leadership they trusted. Come Thursday night, it had become clear that that leadership would have its hand forced. On Friday morning, it was made official: the tournament was cancelled.
From those ponderous missteps amid chaos worldwide, the Tour has done a good job of first creating a clear path towards resumption, and then getting on with things with so with few hitches — the Nick Watney testing fiasco is a fading memory, and no longer do we hang on tweets from its communications department to find out which players have fallen foul of a positive Covid-19 test this time.
Whatever your views on the situation as it stands, whether Joel Dahmen should be able to miss the cut and go and find some strangers to play golf with as he did last week; the apparent bursting of bubbles and a still stark contrast to the protocols of the European Tour, life on golf's biggest and most lucrative circuit is close to normal again.
And so here we are, back at Sawgrass, the Tour already working hard to accentuate those undoubted positives. Its job has been made easier by a dizzying start to the year, including but not limited to a Tony Finau play-off loss, Patrick Reed's latest go at interpreting rules, Jordan Spieth's return to form, and Bryson DeChambeau's power — so significant that he managed to convince some very serious people that in aiming 70 yards to the right of a green, he was in fact attempting to drive it.
I wonder then: might it be possible that the PGA Tour wants to do what it can to ensure its best players can contend more often in its flagship event? Images from an over-seeded Sawgrass suggest it is set to play long and lush once more, despite a dry spell, and perhaps the days of accuracy trumping power as when KJ Choi defeated David Toms, sandwiched between wins for Tim Clark and Matt Kuchar, are no more.
Johnson has to be considered at 12/1 given his strike-rate, which is one-in-four since last June's resumption, one-in-seven over the last two years, and one-in-eight if you widen the lens to half a decade. Viewed that way, there's a straightforward case to make for the clear standout player in the sport, especially if that form from 2019 really is more significant than everything before it. The issue I have is that not only is he putting badly, but his driver has been a problem this year, which is why his PGA Tour form reads a modest (for him) T11-T8-T54.
With McIlroy exasperated on Sunday and DeChambeau unlikely to my eye to repeat his Bay Hill heroics here, the two standout candidates from the very top of the betting are Jon Rahm and JUSTIN THOMAS, and I can't get away from the latter at a massive 20/1.
Rahm was lacklustre after a good start in the World Golf Championship won by Collin Morikawa two weeks ago, but there have been strong indications that he's getting used to his new golf ball and the driver in particular. The trouble is his putting has suffered badly since signing for Callaway, and his approach work at The Concession was decidedly poor.
For those reasons, Thomas is much preferred and rates a strong fancy to put behind him a turbulent start to the year, that unsavoury episode in Hawaii and the subsequent death of his grandfather surely affecting his play, before Tiger Woods' car accident on the eve of the WGC Workday Championship. Thomas, who has played more golf with Woods than anyone and considers him a good friend, was visibly shaken in the run-up to the event and was virtually out of things by Thursday evening.
Nobody has won this title on the back of a missed cut in almost a quarter of a century, and virtually every winner arrived in very good form — take Choi's sequence of 6-8-3-1 as a clear example, but even 80/1 chance Martin Kaymer was progressing nicely, and shock champion Si Woo Kim had turned a corner in Texas on his previous start.
Other than perhaps Tony Finau, nobody in this field has been as consistently excellent as Cantlay of late, and while he did struggle with the putter over the weekend at Riviera, in general every aspect of his game has appeared in good shape since he produced a dazzling final round for second in the American Express, and then contended again at Pebble Beach.
Along with Sawgrass, Augusta and Kapalua are two of the most experience-favouring courses on the PGA Tour, and over the last few months Im has finished second and fifth on his respective debuts at each. Before all this, he played Royal Melbourne exquisitely in the Presidents Cup, and these through-the-bag tests appear ideally suited to his quality, all-round game.
It's true that his iron play has gone off the rails a little of late, which is the main concern, but despite that he's been right on the fringes throughout every start so far in 2021 and form of 28-21 since the Tour landed in Florida underlines just how comfortable he is playing golf down here in the south east of the USA.
After a quiet start to 2021, he looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time, having been 15th in the Workday and 18th last week. His ball-striking improved across this fortnight, as did his putting, and it was only some shoddy work around the greens at Bay Hill which kept him just outside the places.
Notably, Matsuyama has generally struggled to compete at Arnie's place and his record at Sawgrass is superior. In fact of those to have played each of the last five completed renewals, his is the best adjusted scoring average — and that's ignoring the course record-tying 63 of 2020.
As well as winning this impressively when at the top of the sport, he's been fifth, sixth and eighth, and we can forgive last year's opening 76 as he'd missed the cut and withdrawn from his previous two starts as he battled back and neck injuries.
Twelve months down the line and having changed plenty, including coach and clubs, he says he's as fit as he's been in a long time and is suddenly eyeing another 15 or more years on the PGA Tour. Should be remain healthy, there's little doubt he ought to be capable of climbing the rankings and, perhaps as soon as this week, winning again.
Certainly, this is an ideal course for him to showcase his off-the-tee strength and short-game class, both of which were on display at Bay Hill. The problem has always been his approach play but he's never really had to lean on it here, ranking a best of ninth when winning; he'll need to do better than he has been, but perhaps not by much.
It was admittedly disconcerting to hear him say last week that he has a little more work to do before winning, and that may be enough for some to look elsewhere, but 45/1 feels like ample compensation for a genuine Sawgrass specialist whose current form reads 7-18-31, with 14 of his last 15 rounds par or better.
The sole over-par round came on a brutal Sunday at Bay Hill, but the calmer forecast will suit Day's extraordinarily high ball-flight and he can take another step forward at the scene of one of his finest performances.
For those who would rather speculate more than I have, Sergio Garcia has to be considered while he continues to hit the ball as he's done for the last few months. His approach play at the WGC was as good as it's been since he won the Sanderson Farms and, as I wrote there, he's a far better player on the east coast than he is out west.
The Spaniard is respected along with the young flusher Will Zalatoris, but the final two off my list were Russell Henley and Harris English. Henley's approach play has been of an exceptional standard for some time, and he has some eye-catching Sawgrass form to go with wins in Hawaii and Houston and here in Florida at the Honda Classic. He has in fact won at Sawgrass, albeit on the Valley course which is also designed by Dye, and is entitled to step up on what he's been doing on the west coast.
As for English, a top-30 finish at Bay Hill represented a big step back in the right direction after a post-win hangover, and he's an unashamed Dye fan who says he grew up playing courses which resemble Sawgrass. Those comments came after a very bright start to his career here, and a run of missed cuts subsequently can for the most part be explained by the state of his game at the time.
Still, I find it hard to escape the conclusion that things are getting more and more predictable at Sawgrass, which might be just what the PGA Tour wants. With such generous place terms on offer, that means attacking the front end of the market, where Thomas stands out a mile at the odds.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 08/03/21
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