"Anything you learn today, this week, forget it."

That was the advice Jon Rahm offered to Sebastian Munoz during the final round of the 2020 Masters. Munoz, who would go on to finish 19th, was one of a collection of first-timers who found Augusta National more welcoming than perhaps they expected. At the top of the leaderboard, Sungjae Im might have become the first player since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 to triumph on debut had it not been for Dustin Johnson, and that would have been fitting in a unique renewal.

In the end, the world's best player was a dominant winner of a tournament which saw records tumble. Cameron Smith became the first man in history to break 70 in all four rounds, and he was five behind the champion, who twice shot 65. Scoring-wise, November 2020 might not have been all that much lower than April 2019, but that too was a historically easy renewal, soft greens key to both. When you give the best players in the sport big, receptive targets, they can make even the most devious of courses look simple.

Perhaps Rahm is wrong to write off November entirely. Players like Munoz, Im, Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler might benefit from having walked golf's most iconic walk, from having stood on that 12th tee and faced up to an awkward club selection and still shallow target. But what they didn't experience was the real Augusta National, and following a dry spring, all indications are that this week's test will be fundamentally different.

The Augusta National Women's Amateur, won by Tsubasa Kajitani, gave us an early look at conditions and it was noticeable that the greens appeared to be far less amenable than five months ago. Described as 'crispy' by one participant and with a steady wind drying them out further as the tournament progressed, they look primed to ask serious questions. It is not only Jordan Spieth who is 'back'.

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Spieth hasn't quite made his way to the head of the market, but at 11/1 he's shorter than he was even to win a weak Texas Open. That he did so, ending a victory drought which had been approaching four years, may prove invaluable and he looks to hold an outstanding chance at a course he adores. Twice runner-up either side of a dominant victory in 2015, he would be preferred to Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau of what's currently the top three in the market.

But it's JUSTIN THOMAS whose preparation appears best of all and he's long looked a Masters winner in waiting, so the recently-crowned PLAYERS champion once again heads my staking plan.

Thomas was fourth here in November, but the changing conditions weren't necessarily a factor in his continued improvement. He simply made a few putts this time, something he'd failed to do on four previous visits which showed progressive form figures of 39-22-17-12 but always left a sour taste, particularly in 2019 when he hit the ball so well he declared that he ought to have won.

That's quite a statement when you've just finished a non-threatening 12th, and the actual winner is Tiger Woods, but it speaks to how comfortable Thomas is from tee-to-green at Augusta. Right from his first visit, he ranked 11th in greens hit, progressing to sixth, second and third across his next three, and sixth again in 2020. There's nobody in the field who can match him on that score.

Perhaps he did find November's greens less fearsome but more likely is that he has figured things out just a little and, as we saw on his latest stroke play start at Sawgrass, his long-game is good enough to beat the best players in the world without lighting up the greens. In fact, that's been true of all three of his victories since the beginning of 2020, including when he lost strokes to the field with the putter but still won a World Golf Championship at Southwind.

Here at Augusta, it's iron play which so often separates the field. Three of the last six winners led in strokes-gained approach, which would be four had Justin Rose kept Sergio Garcia at bay, and all six ranked inside the top five. Nobody hit more greens in regulation than Johnson, in fact nobody ever has. Woods also topped that old-school statistic in 2019 and it has long been key to passing this relentless exam, whether conditions have been soft or firm or somewhere between the two.

Coming into last year's renewal, Johnson had led the field in strokes-gained approach in two of his previous five starts. Woods had also led in one of his, and even Reed — not typically an outstanding iron player — had managed it three starts before winning here. Go further back and while we've no such data for Sergio Garcia, he led the field in greens hit en route to victory in the Dubai Desert Classic and was likely one of the top couple from a strokes-gained perspective, too.

Thomas is one of the best iron players I've ever seen, certainly among the best around at the moment, and that aspect of his game could be all the more important under the expected conditions as greens repel all but the most precise shots. With his short-game outstanding — I'm not sure there's anyone bar 2018 winner Reed who pitches better from a tight lie — it's off the tee that he'll need to be on his game, and he was better at the PLAYERS than he's been for some time.

I would think he's the most likely player in the field to top that approaches chart, something he did in the Tournament of Champions, or at least be best from tee-to-green as was the case at Sawgrass. Thomas led the PGA Tour in SG: Approach last season, ranked second in 2019, and sits third for the current campaign. This reliable iron play of his should open up plenty of scoring opportunities and on his sixth visit, he can avoid the quiet Saturday back-nine which cost him a chance here last time.