In years to come, we may look back on this curious time as that which convinced those in charge of golf to add a fifth men's major to the calendar. The arguments for doing so vary depending on who you read, but first among them should be a desire to take the sport to all corners of the globe. After Hideki Matsuyama became the first Japanese man to win at the highest level, there is surely no better time to do it, and do it properly.
Arguments against might include something about saturation, but that was being tested even before the pandemic, because in moving the PGA Championship from August to May in 2019, men's major season was narrowed from four months to three. Now, we have reached the fifth such event in a run of seven which, when completed at Royal St George's this summer, will have spanned less than 11 months. And not one of us gives a solitary shank.
When major number five does come along, god forbid it be The PLAYERS Championship, which is just fine as it is. Where major number four is concerned, there can be absolutely no doubt: despite being younger than the Masters Tournament, last in line — and yes, this is a bit like picking between children — is the PGA Championship, whose 103rd edition begins on Thursday.
But while this one may not boast the iconography of a Masters, the traditionalism of an Open or the brutalism of a US Open, it is just as comfortable in its own skin. Thanks in recent years to the stewardship of Kerry Haigh, the PGA of America has done a largely solid job, concerning itself more with entertainment than par. Now, in returning to Kiawah Island, its stature as a tournament is matched by the golf course upon which the strongest field of the year will battle for the Wanamaker Trophy.
Spieth, again like McIlroy, is in pursuit of a career grand slam, having won the Masters and the US Open in 2015, and then a Claret Jug two years later. Were he to win here, the Texan would join Bobby Jones, Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player (not that he likes to talk about it), Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods in the sport's most exclusive club.
Some might see that as a negative, but I don't think it will stop him from contending and it's hopefully something we can worry about come Sunday's back-nine. Don't forget, we're talking about a player of extraordinary mental resolve, whose clear thinking was as important a part of that dramatic Open win as the magic in his hands, and I do not believe he will fail due to the weight of history.
With that established, the case for Spieth taking to Kiawah Island looks strong. Firstly he has always been an excellent wind player, which is tied into the fact his iron play is of the highest class when he's on. And he certainly is on: after a prolonged struggle which saw him drop to 92nd in the world, he's finished in the top 15 in eight of his subsequent nine starts, winning once, and it took an extraordinary and anomalous short-game display to keep him away from the top of the leaderboard at Sawgrass.
Those lines I've drawn to Whistling Straits and Chambers Bay evoke memories of DUSTIN JOHNSON's failure to win at both courses, and while he arrives here under something of a cloud I think his price is plain wrong, so he goes in with Spieth as part of a two-pronged attack from the front of the betting.
Johnson drifted to a whopping 30/1 last summer before winning the Travelers, but since then has established himself as the best player in the sport and I'm really surprised we can take 18 and 20/1 for an event in his home state, on a long course, where an ability to play well in the wind looks vital, and where he looks to hold as strong a chance as anyone.
Yes, his form has tapered off since winning in Saudi Arabia (on seashore paspalum, for whatever that is worth), but while in February and March it was his driver which caused him issues, lately it's been his short-game. In his two starts since missing the cut at Augusta he has in fact ranked first and third in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and there was marked improvement in his iron play from the first to the second.
If he takes another step forward in that department, Johnson could be back producing the ball-striking numbers which make him the player that he is. And if we do get that kind of performance from tee-to-green, the odds available will look extraordinarily generous, leaving just a workable short-game as the final piece of the jigsaw.
Some will say that his modest performance here in 2012 is a concern, but it isn't to me. Back then, Johnson was an out-of-form world number 18 looking for a major breakthrough having blown big chances in each of the preceding years. Now, he's world number one, a two-time major champion, and even a harsh view of his overall form would confirm that he's operating at a far higher level.
The main worry for me would have been his knee, which seemingly remains something of a concern and, on the face of it, justified his withdrawal from last week's Byron Nelson. Then again, Johnson was practicing at Kiawah Island on Saturday, which would be reckless if he is struggling for fitness. Could it be that having seen a troublesome weather forecast, he simply decided that he'd be better off staying in South Carolina?
As well as almost winning at Whistling Straits in 2010, when cruelly penalised on the 72nd hole (note: players can ground their clubs in bunkers here, which is good news for everyone isn't it?), Johnson is a winner at Dye's TPC River Highlands and Crooked Stick, and he's improved at Sawgrass. Indeed if you take a 50-round view he is the leader in strokes-gained total on Dye courses, falling to third if you widen the lens to a hundred.
With all of this in mind, I was tempted by him at a standout 11/1 back in December, some firms making him 7/1 favourite. Nine starts and one more victory later, it's those underlining signs of a return to form in his long-game which compel me to chance him at almost double that.
Beyond these two I'm not especially keen on the front of the market. Jon Rahm is plainly not playing well and unlike Johnson, I don't believe his price has shifted sufficiently enough to reflect recent form figures of MC-34, his two worst finishes since last August. Justin Thomas might be less suited to a windswept test although having won at Sawgrass, Dye's most famous creation, his chance is respected perhaps more than that of Bryson DeChambeau, who may be better served by Torrey Pines next month.
With Xander Schauffele short enough and Viktor Hovland having halved in price since he was selected antepost, only Patrick Reed makes serious appeal of those priced at 40/1 and shorter. Reed has won at Torrey Pines, Augusta, Bethpage and Doral, four long courses supposedly the domain of the bigger hitter, and has been on the fringes in every major since last summer's return to action, as well as at Portrush before it.
Second at Quail Hollow, where McIlroy is now a three-time winner but also where Lynn once lost a play-off, he also played nicely at Whistling Straits early on his career. If this does prove to be a test of scrambling creativity around the greens, which to some degree it might, the lawless Texan may well threaten to become a multiple major champion.
A regular contender on linksland who was born in Southport and raised on a golfing diet of Hillside and Birkdale, Fleetwood's sawn-off swing is part of a pedigree which looks ideal for this. The more it blows the better, especially as his underestimated short-game (seventh in strokes-gained around-the-green this season) is capable of making the difference.
It's true that he's been a little quiet this year, and that his driver hasn't quite been dialled in, but Fleetwood has still managed to have three looks at winning in 11 starts. One of those was in the Match Play, at the Dye-designed Austin Country Club, while he also lurked behind McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton in Abu Dhabi, and behind DeChambeau and company before a difficult final round at Bay Hill.
It's true that he's been a little underwhelming since that famous week at Portrush, but like so many Europeans he's entitled to some leeway having been forced to set up camp in Florida again just as he'd settled back in at home in Ireland. Now, his hand forced, Lowry seems intent on staying in the USA, where his daughter will soon start school, as he focuses on making the most of what he has.
"I'm very driven. I'm more driven now than I've ever been," he . "I really want to do a lot in this game and I really feel like I've got the ability to do a lot and hopefully I can give people at home something to cheer about over the next while."
One thing I believe Lowry has which connects him to Harrington, and to someone like Danny Willett, is an ability to step up when he has to. As Willett confessed during the British Masters, sometimes that can translate to quiet weeks when out of contention and not feeling the buzz, and where Lowry is concerned it perhaps explains why he's been an infrequent winner, yet has a major and a WGC to his name.
I have high hopes that he'll make the Ryder Cup side, and he could well take care of that massive goal by winning a second major championship at a course where experience, patience and some of those skills honed by the sea in Ireland all look set to count for something.
The nature of the grass used will ensure that this isn't 'firm and fast', which players tend to say they want, right up until the moment they get it. That's a shame in some respects and is another reason why Kiawah Island perhaps isn't all that it could be, as discussed by the excellent folks at The Fried Egg in the video you'll find further up this preview.
Anyway, we'd have to stretch the boundaries of acceptability to get Leishman in, as his victory came in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, where he had a teammate. Still, that performance alongside Cameron Smith confirmed the impression he made when fifth at Augusta, with a subsequent top-20 finish in Texas underlining the fact that the Australian is playing really well again.
The timing is ideal, because while he's said several times he's not fond of most USGA set-ups in the US Open, nor those of the PGA, Leishman should be suited by all three courses which remain. We know he likes Torrey Pines, where he won last year, but he's bound to enjoy Sandwich and a share of 27th here in 2012 confirms that Kiawah Island represents an opportunity as well.
"Really like it," was his verdict in a . "It was soft when we played it in 2012. As far as a PGA golf course goes, it sets up as good as one will for me. I might be half a chance if I can play well. I'm excited about next week. I hope it's firm and fast."
The fact that McIlroy won the same event before picking up his first PGA Championship might seem limited in significance, but the Honda has long been an event which either throws up major winners, or reminds us of their quality. In recent years it's been won by Harrington, Scott and Thomas, while further back you'll find Ernie Els and YE Yang. Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, Geoff Ogilvy and Lucas Glover have all gone close.
Jones's effort in the 2015 PGA Championship, at Whistling Straits, where he was the leader at halfway, is encouraging, and I don't mind his decent record in the Open Championship, either. Throw in two Australian Open titles and his CV is packed with potentially relevant form.
Very much in the 'sneaky long' category, this 41-year-old hasn't ever looked a major winner in waiting, but the same could be said of many surprise PGA champions. That he boasts a world-class short-game, ranks 22nd in bogey avoidance, and is gaining strokes through the bag, is enough to speculate that he could grab some place money and perhaps even spring a surprise.
Louis Oosthuizen and Paul Casey are unsurprising names for consideration, the latter a winner this year under difficult conditions. Casey was seriously out of sorts when missing the cut by a long way here in 2012 and returns a fitter, better, more confident player who wins in his turn, and who threatened a major breakthrough at Harding Park. Decent enough last time at the Valspar, he has to be respected.
As for Oosthuizen, his short-game has improved in recent years and, after costing himself and partner Charl Schwartzel potential victory at the Zurich Classic, he produced his best iron play since 2019 when bagging a top-10 finish at the Valspar. An Open champion with form at Chambers Bay and when second in this at Quail Hollow, he played well here in 2012 and has to be respected with such generous each-way terms.
Finally, I did think long and hard about siding with Thomas Pieters, who has placed in two majors and two World Golf Championship events, and who is striking the ball like a top-class player. He's played a lot of golf on paspalum this spring, and if this is a power-dominated event then odds of 200/1 will soon appear generous.
But if 2012 tells us anything, it's that there is more to Kiawah Island than the notoriety it will gain this week thanks to a yardage on a scorecard. Hopefully come Sunday it will have an altogether better way to distinguish itself: the place where Jordan Spieth made history.
Posted at 2000 BST on 17/05/21
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