You may have read something similar before: winners of Rolex Series events, like this week's Scottish Open, have to a man been proven at this level by virtue of their respective trophy cabinets. Most if not all of the nine will play Ryder Cup golf in September. Above all else, this has been and will likely remain the most effective filter when attempting to predict the next, and the next, and the next to land one of these illustrious prizes.
The strength of this week's ensemble in East Lothian appears to further the likelihood that you're asked to read a paragraph like the above come the next in the series, but if there are circumstances which can both literally and figuratively blow the game wide open, they are to be found under the links conditions which make up this fabulous summer swing around the UK and Ireland.
Last week, Ryan Fox was the victim of a remarkable sequence of events, but for which he'd have become the first player to make a Rolex Series title his first on the European Tour. The 54-hole leader in Ireland, Erik van Rooyen, would also have been breaking new ground had he not succumbed to a bout of the Sunday blues so while Russell Knox's victory was one for the form book, there was so nearly an upset.
And last year, in this very event, Callum Shinkwin was also unfortunate - even if, like Fox only to a greater degree, he had himself to blame for turning first into second. Shinkwin, another talented maiden sent off at a big price, needed five at the last but took six, opening himself up to Rafa Cabrera Bello's eagle-shaped killer blow. As with Ballyliffin, Dundonald almost unearthed our first real shock since the Rolex Series was launched last May.
One counter argument is the roll of honour in this event. Since switching from the parkland Loch Lomond to the links of Castle Stuart in 2011, six of the seven champions have been out of the top drawer and the other, Jeev Milkha Singh, had won three previous European Tour titles including in elite company. Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose are all on the honours' board and all are towards the top of a market littered with world-class players.
Still, I am keen to exploit the idea that a shock winner is more plausible here than it might be at, say, Wentworth or in Turkey later in the season. The Open Championship is just a week away now and while its proximity won't stop all of the elite players here, it will see some lose focus on this title over the weekend and with seven or eight places on offer, each-way speculation looks the way to go.
First on my list is Mikko Ilonen, available at 150/1 generally.
The Finn is a distinguished, experienced links player, so it was no great surprise to see him rank third for greens hit on his way to 19th place in last week's Irish Open, an effort he can build on here.
Ilonen's love for links golf can be traced right back to his junior days and by the time he was competing in the top amateur events, he was among the best equipped for the challenge of golf at its most pure. The skills he'd honed in the cool, windy conditions of home saw him win the West of Ireland Amateur in 1999, before he added his named to an illustrious roll of honour by landing the Amateur Championship at Royal Liverpool the following summer.
Given the approach this week, the shortlist was especially long and includes three young South Africans, none of whom quite make enough appeal.
Christiaan Bezhuidenhout first crept onto the radar at the Dunhill Links and has bags of talent. He's had six top-30 finishes in 11 starts outside of South Africa this year, including in Ireland, and having sneaked into the field is one who could surprise a few at some stage.
We saw Zander Lombard do exactly that last week with an out-of-the-blue top-10 finish, and this former Amateur Championship runner-up could well build on it. The closest he's come to winning on the European Tour was by the coast in Sicily and, clearly, he's spent plenty of his youth honing those bullet two-irons.
And then there's Dean Burmester, whose links credentials are less obvious. He's simply playing out of skin and looks the type to go very close in Europe soon, having built up huge confidence with a run of cuts made which started at Wentworth and includes a more than respectable US Open debut.
All three are considered along with compatriot Richard Sterne, who appeals as a more solid option.
In 13 starts this year, he's made 12 cuts and 31st in France and 37th in Ireland provide a nice platform for a return to Scotland, where he's long been effective.
Sterne was 19th in this event last year and 13th in 2016, in between which he added second place at the Dunhill Links to a record which already included a pair of previous sixths.
He's also been 34th at Turnberry, 21st at Muirfield and 46th at Troon in the Open and with health issues hopefully now behind him, it's possible that he could step up a level at Gullane, the concern being that he struggles to turn solid weeks into spectacular ones.
Those looking to expand upon the potential Kennemer link should consider Eddie Pepperell, who won in Qatar earlier this year but appears out of form now, Fabrizio Zanotti and a returning-to-form Thomas Pieters, who won there in 2015.
England's Matthew Southgate is tempting considering his links credentials, especially having been fifth two weeks ago, but completing my staking plan are compatriots Oliver Fisher and Ashley Chesters.
Fisher has been 11th, ninth and 36th in his last three Kennemer starts, where he also shot 65 on his debut way back in 2007.
His form in Scotland includes fourth in the Paul Lawrie Match Play and seventh in the Dunhill Links, and right back to the start of his career there are positive signs as he kicked off with 19th and ninth at Loch Lomond and Gleneagles respectively.
A former winner of the St Andrews Trophy, he was also second in Qatar earlier this year which strikes me as particularly relevant form.
More recently, he's been 21st in Italy and 28th in Ireland and not much more is needed on those efforts for this hugely talented 29-year-old to force his way inside the top 10.
Chesters meanwhile is an arrow-straight hitter who is scrambling really well - the latter was key to Fowler's success here and might be the most relevant stat to study, hence the inclusion of McDowell and Harrington.
A run of form which reads seventh in Austria, 63rd in Germany, 21st in France and 14th Ireland suggests that Chesters is getting comfortable on the European Tour and his 12th place in the 2015 Open Championship at St Andrews is form which points towards his prospects here.
Chesters turned pro after impressing at Royal Lytham for the GB & Ireland Walker Cup side and can showcase his links skills once more.
Posted at 1310 BST on 10/07/18.