*This selection is under Social Media Specials via Sky Bet's Ryder Cup page
One of the favourites should oblige in both US (Scottie Scheffler, surely) and European markets but I do wonder if JON RAHM, rather than Rory McIlroy, ought to head the betting for the away side and at 3/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, bet365) in what is likely a two-horse race, we can take a chance.
Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor, William Hill, StarSports and BoyleSports also offer this market and all are bigger than 2/1 on Rahm. That would be the point at which I draw stumps and let the bet go, so hopefully most readers who wish to follow this piece of advice are able to do so.
Perhaps Donald will surprise us all and rip up the Rome plan but Rahm led the way there and halved his match against Scheffler, the second Ryder Cup in succession where they've locked horns, and I expect the Spaniard will be banging the door down for a crack at the world number one, who will be expected to lead the way for the US if he's performing to his usual standards.
The state of play heading into Sunday could have a big effect on this market, more so than who goes out early. If it's tight, and everything points towards the final few matches being important, then you can expect to see experience and class. If one side leads by a decent margin, generally they will try to have a safety net whereas the chasers can do nothing else but stack the front.
At Medinah in 2012, Martin Kaymer had struggled so badly that he'd only played one pairs match despite being a major champion, and then went out in the 11th slot. Behind him came Francesco Molinari, who was 0-2-0 for the week. Four years later and in a similar predicament, it was Kaymer and a struggling Matt Fitzpatrick.
This where we could end up with Europe's favourite, sole rookie Rasmus Hojgaard, proving the right one, but most scenarios I believe would lead towards him teeing off between seventh and ninth, as his brother did. Only if Europe are trailing by a wide margin would it make sense to leave the only debutant in the anchor match and accept that if your team can take it that far, its youngest member will simply have to step up.
Of the two I would lean towards McIlroy (who is a shorter price) because, from a forward tee, asking the Masters champion and top-scorer from Rome to hit the very first shot would be a nice statement of intent from Europe. But it's important to acknowledge that Donald may not have given this idea any thought whatsoever, and McIlroy hasn't played in match one since 2012.
By contrast, one potential angle is that Rahm has in fact been in the opening match in all three Ryder Cup appearances so far, even as a rookie in Paris seven years ago. If that continues then odds of 3/1 will look generous, and the fact that he fades it off the tee seems to align nicely with the odd-numbered holes.
Putting Rahm in match one and asking him to drive off would be an immediate indication that Donald is set to stick closely to the plan which worked so well in Rome. But the risk that Hatton hits instead leaves us with about 6/4 that it's either of them, and I'd want to be getting 2/1 before thinking twice about it.
When bet365 produced their first show, I was very excited about the market concerning which player would secure the winning point or hole the winning putt, the precise wording likely to vary between bookmakers.
Shockingly, they made Scheffler 9/2 favourite, and I would say only McIlroy and Rahm are less likely to win it. There's nothing complicated about this, either: these are all players we should expect to head out in matches one to three on Sunday, and from there it's virtually impossible to get your side over the line.
Even in a convincing European win in Rome, the winning moment came from Fleetwood in match 11. The US produced their record victory in 2021 and it was Collin Morikawa, in match five, who sealed it, after they'd started the singles very strongly. There's some debate as to who officially won it for Europe in their record win back in 2004, but it was either Colin Montgomerie (sixth) or Ian Poulter (10th).
Matches seven and nine produced the winning moments in fairly one-sided wins for USA in 2016 and Europe in 2018 and in anything like a competitive renewal, the top four in the Sunday singles order have next to no chance. Given how I expect this to unfold, I would guess we're looking at perhaps the ninth or 10th US player, but if not then more likely 11th or 12th than seventh or eighth.
On Monday, bet365 had another look at a market which had been live for a week. Scheffler, their original favourite, is now one of three rank outsiders. As with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair, the show we're left with guarantees you a nice price if you land on the right player, but you'll need a lot of luck to beat a 150% book. My token vote goes to Harris English, but at 16/1 I won't pay to find out.
I'll end with a brief note on match bets, with Paddy Power offering 11/10 Viktor Hovland to outscore Cameron Young. Given that Hovland is the better golfer and is likely to play more matches, I find that very hard to comprehend. There seems to be a belief that Young will play four or more sessions according to this and some other markets, but I'm not so sure.
Similarly, Russell Henley to be the top US rookie is worth considering at 13/8. He's going to begin the week with the world's best player and it's quite possible that the other three begin it on the bench. That plus the fact that Henley is the strongest of the four makes him look more like an even-money shot, but success here will depend quite a bit on Scheffler, and I'd rather rely on him alone instead.
Posted at 1800 BST on 22/09/25
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