It's difficult to know where to start with the Puerto Rico Open, a staple of the PGA Tour's 'opposite' schedule – a term used to cover all tournaments which take place alongside a WGC or major. Always, fields are eclectic, but the 2021 edition feels especially so, a mixture of Ryder Cup hopefuls, Korn Ferry standouts, and veterans that at first appears really hard to unpick.
Generally speaking, it has paid to think creatively and there have been winners at enormous prices here, like Martin Trainer, DA Points and Alex Cejka, just as there have in Bermuda (Brian Gay, Brendon Todd) and in the Dominican Republic, where Hudson Swafford found something from nothing last year. So often, these surprise winners have a degree of back-class which should always entitle a player to respect, but they've nevertheless been hard to find.
Last year reminded us that when a world-class player does show up, they have to be taken seriously. Despite plainly struggling with his short-game under pressure, Viktor Hovland holed an excellent birdie putt on the final hole to beat journeyman Josh Teater in the sort of finish which adds to the charm. Wind back further and Jordan Spieth and Jason Day both finished runner-up early in their careers, while Puerto Rico is, infamously, the scene of Tony Finau's sole PGA Tour victory to date.
Although Grace was the first name onto my shortlist, it's Poulter who I've particularly warmed to and he really should get into the mix here, with the consistent breeze which is forecast set to strengthen his claims while perhaps working against some of the younger, raw talents in the field who I will come to later.
Poulter was third here in 2016, missing the play-off won by Finau by a single shot, and when returning a year later said: "It's a good course. It sets up well for me in the wind. If we get decent wind over the four days, I'll be pretty happy with that."
Although he'd go on to miss the cut that week, he was in really poor form at the time following some fitness issues, but it wasn't long after that he found something out of nothing to finish second in the PLAYERS Championship. At the time, Poulter needed that to keep hold of his card, and it's when his back is against the wall that he's at his most dangerous.
Right now, he's 58th in the world and, in a Ryder Cup year, a long way down the qualification standings. He is far from certain to be part of Padraig Harrington's team, and while in three of the four majors plus the PLAYERS, he'll know that returning to the top 50 remains vitally important so that he can be in the WGCs like the one he's missing in Florida, where several potential rivals for a spot will pick up cheap world ranking points.
After these two, it gets complicated. Assessing the promise of these Korn Ferry Tour players, among whom Schniederjans does appear a viable option for all he's a short enough price, is difficult. But while these circumstances are unique (Wu and others would have PGA Tour cards in a normal year), it's a rare thing to win an event at this level without being a full member, and that's a barrier Wu, Suh and the rest will have to cross.
Instead, I prefer those who are on the other side of the coin and remain with cards in their pockets, with BRONSON BURGOON next.
This sweet-swinging Texan hasn't quite fulfilled his potential, having been a top-20 amateur little more than a decade ago – although it shouldn't be underestimated how difficult it is to go from there to the PGA Tour and stay put. Burgoon has just about managed to do so and since turning the corner in the RSM Classic last year, where he contended throughout the weekend, there's been a lot to like about his game.
Speaking after a second-round 63 at Sea Island, he explained that things were looking up, telling reporters: "So for the last six, seven months it's been pretty frustrating, but I'm working towards something and I felt it in Vegas coming along. Even though I missed my last couple cuts, but I've had some nice moments and yeah, it's good. I'm looking forward to the rest of the year, next year."
Since then, he's made three cuts in five starts but note that the two exceptions saw him miss by a single stroke. That makes for a strong body of work and, for the third time in as many visits, he played well at Pebble Beach to sit 25th at halfway and eventually finish 47th.
His sole missed cut this year saw him shoot 71-66, the latter bogey-free, at the low-scoring Sony Open so he seems in a really good place, very similar in fact to when he last played here and sat third at halfway.
Burgoon has placed form in the Barracuda to demonstrate what a slight dip in grade can do, and with his approach play much better before a blip last time out, he might be ready to break through at last.
KRAMER HICKOK and Roger Sloan both appeal from the same portion of the market, the latter having been second here in breezy conditions two years ago and played well since. Glance through the strokes-gained stats for the season and the case for Sloan becomes stronger still, but Hickok might just have a bit more about him and is preferred.
We have to accept back-to-back missed cuts, but this Texan is probably going to prove far more comfortable on the east coast and in places like Puerto Rico throughout his career. That's looked to be the case so far, and he was in front during the latter stages of the Bermuda Championship back in November.
Starting out this year he played really well in the Sony which, while in Hawaii, has those coastal, Florida-like characteristics which are in play in Puerto Rico, and he'll certainly enjoy the breeze having said as much more than once. In fact, he struck the ball really well when it blew here in 2019, but was less effective during a calmer 2020 renewal.
I put up Martin Laird last year and Aaron Baddeley in 2019, both of them leading into the final round without going on to win. In both cases, the logic involved that drop in grade, their ability to win far better tournaments, and relevant bits and pieces of form by the coast. They're all at play with Baddeley once again and, three-times the price he was two years ago, with form figures here of 2-8, he's quite hard to leave out.
The Australian has been working with Butch Harmon since last August, and there have been some hints in his iron play that things are improving slowly. With his 40th birthday a couple of weeks from now there are enough reasons to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I didn't think there was quite enough in the price.
Instead, take ANIRBAN LAHIRI to remind us all of his quality and contend for a PGA Tour breakthrough, something he's done in the Dominican Republic (sixth) and Bermuda (11th) on his last two 'opposite' starts.
As you might have expected, the shortlist here was absurdly long and included Satoshi Kodaira, who is a better golfer right now than probably all those who are alongside him at 150/1. Also a fairly recent PGA Tour winner, and by the sea, too, the small signs of promise he's shown since returning to the USA in time for the start of the season caught my eye.
Rob Oppenheim has a strong Pebble Beach record and a top-10 finish here to his name, Lucas Glover is a rare class-dropper whose fifth in Mexico, record at Bay Hill and 63 in Phoenix stand out, and I wouldn't seek to talk you out of chancing David Lingmerth, who plays well in the wind, has a sneaky-good record here, and was 14th last week on his first start since the arrival of his second child.
Then there are those could-be-anything players like Carson Young and Bryson Nimmer, and the latter is interesting enough. Back in September, Nimmer had to withdraw from the Safeway Open because of Covid-19, and he'd been trimmed from an opening 200/1 to 125/1 having been in red-hot form in the LOCALiQ series. Formerly a top-20 amateur at Clemson, he now finds himself a bigger price in a considerably weaker event, owing to the fact his handful of subsequent starts haven't been quite so strong.
Notably he said that his game was 'rounding into form', quite a bullish statement for one who has been staring into the abyss, and while it's been a case of baby steps so far I do love the fact his turnaround in fortunes correlates directly with big improvements in his ball-striking.
Three events running now he's gained strokes with his approaches, and having spent two years driving it off the planet he's gained strokes in three of his last six starts and even ranked 13th in a strong Phoenix Open. I tend to believe him when he says things are looking up, and that has to put him on the radar in an event like this.
A one-time top-class amateur, Kim won the 2018 John Deere Classic by eight strokes before playing well in the following week's Open Championship at Carnoustie. Things went spectacularly wrong thereafter, but despite a missed cut here in 2016 there's been more than enough lately to take a chance at an enormous price. To my mind he deserves a little more respect, and the fact he has a top-20 at Bay Hill is a further boost.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 23/02/21
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