It seems to me that the PLAYERS Championship is the most competitive tournament of the year, and therefore among the hardest to win. Granted, the majors provide better quality from overseas - there are a number of European Tour players ranked outside the world's top 50 who could in theory make this field even stronger - but the PGA Tour is stacked, and aside from Tiger Woods, everyone else is here.
Then there's the course. When the PGA Championship went to a sodden Bellerive and then over to a brutal Bethpage, it seemed fair to assert that hitting the ball miles was a prerequisite. In the end, it was even more straightforward than that: to win, it turns out your name had to be Brooks Koepka. Here, at TPC Sawgrass, there's no such power divide. Pete Dye's most famous and dramatic course forces defensiveness for the most part and if you want to win here through the driver, you'd better make it count when you are allowed to flex.
Combine the field and the course - specifically, the course - and you get a remarkably open tournament. Even the spectre of the world number one and defending champion, priced at 7/1 because of how likely he is to play well, can't change that. Any shortlist here probably stretches beyond 20 players and whoever does come out best on Sunday, their path to success is very difficult to plot in advance.
Take last year as an excellent example. Yes, McIlroy led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee, as we might have predicted, but runner-up Jim Furyk outscored him across the 16 par-fives. In the end, the difference between the two was minute, these two diametrically opposed players doing much to underline what makes golf great and, by extension, what makes Sawgrass so intoxicating. Golf is sport's ultimate meritocracy and few tournaments demonstrate that better than the PLAYERS.
As such, winners vary greatly but having someone on-side who does everything to an excellent standard seems sensible, and that man is PATRICK CANTLAY.
The current world number six arrives slightly beneath the radar, and the same could be said of his form in this event. So far, Cantlay has finished 22nd, 23rd and then missed the cut last year, but that by no means tells the full story.
On debut in 2017, his fifth start back after a three year absence, Cantlay sat seventh after round one, fifth at halfway and seventh through 54 holes, before a disappointing Sunday saw him tumble down the leaderboard. A year later, he led after the opening round, and it's little wonder he speaks highly of Sawgrass and his suitability to it.
"I really like this golf course," he said two years ago. "It reminds me a lot of Hilton Head, and I like that golf course as well. So I feel really comfortable around here."
Cantlay touches on an interesting point there - Hilton Head, and Dye's other PGA Tour venues. His record at the aforementioned course reads 3-7-3, and he's been 15th in each of the last two years at TPC River Highlands. Go further back, and he was fifth in the Jacksonville Open at the Valley Course here, another of Dye's designs.
I've absolutely no doubt he has the patience and skill-set required for Sawgrass, and he's playing well enough. Last time out, he was 17th despite a quiet week with the putter, and before that he was 11th at Pebble Beach. He's played every weekend since last year's PLAYERS, a run of 18 events (five of which had no cut) and a third PGA Tour victory should be on the agenda in the coming months.
14/1 - any of these six to win the tournament
14/1 - all six selections to make the 36-hole cut
25/1 - any two selections to finish in the top five
40/1 - any three selections to finish in the top 10
50/1 - any four selections to finish in the top 20
300/1 - any three selections to finish in the top five
Posted at 1830 GMT on 09/03/20
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