On 11 of his 13 Open appearances, Johnson has been in the mix for places at the very least. This includes when making a Friday charge at Hoylake in 2014, when looking the winner in 2011, and when inside the top 10 in each of the last two renewals. He was 10th at the US Open, his LIV Golf form looks solid, and conditions will suit.
There are few more comfortable playing links golf, as Lowry showed when dominating at Portrush in 2019. Though he's considerably shorter in the betting here, he's since established himself as a consistent force in majors and arrives with his game in shape. There's a strong sense he's peaking just when he would like to peak.
Outside of favourite Rory McIlroy and veterans like Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els, there's nobody in this field with a stronger Open record than Spieth. Winner in 2017, he could've doubled up in 2021, just as he might've won it sooner in 2015. That he contended when out of sorts in 2018 says it all and he's worth forgiving a quiet preparation.
There are risks attached to Matsuyama, whose putting and fitness are never to be taken on trust. That said, he fits the bill in terms of experience, links credentials and even recent form if we forgive him a rare missed cut last time. In the majors this year, only Scottie Scheffler has been better from tee-to-green and 66/1 and bigger rates value.
In the mix at Royal St George's in 2021, Conners has since doubled his PGA Tour tally and contended for the PGA Championship back in May. With three top-20s in his last four starts he's certainly in form, and there are some signs he putts these slow, links greens better than we might expect. He can flush his way to a place.
The Honda Classic roll-of-honour is littered with strong major performers including Open champions like Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els. Lowry should've won it in 2022, too, so Kirk's victory there in February could be a massive pointer. He's in-form, played well here in 2014, and is an outsider with genuine place chances.