At least one too many multi-course events and the time difference from Pacific to Greenwich are very good reasons to be a little dismissive of the west coast swing, but there can be no denying it has kept golf fans drinking between compressed renewals of the Masters. From Si Woo Kim's ballsy dismissal of a challenging clubhouse total, to Patrick Reed being all Patrick Reed, that barnstorming Brooks Koepka finish, and then Daniel Berger slamming the door shut at Pebble Beach, it has been an engrossing four weeks. And that is to say nothing of Jordan Spieth.
Now, it's time for the big party that ends it all for another year as a world-class field descends on Riviera Country Club on the outskirts of LA. If you know golf, chances are you know this course from start to finish, and while Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines help conjure those major championship memories, and Phoenix might provide a more instant and obvious type of gratification, there's nothing quite like the Riv. It's fitting that while many of the key players have crossed swords at some level, it's here that they come together for the first time since Augusta, for what is the best Augusta marker so far this year.
Whoever wins the Genesis Invitational will have seen off some of the biggest names in the sport, and that would earn them a place on the radar for the Masters regardless. But something deeper lies within: the crossover from this course in California to Augusta National in Georgia was a particularly strong one even before Dustin Johnson became the latest man to do the double, with Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir the other more recent additions to a list which begins with the name Sam Snead.
My overall impression is that the PGA Tour is stronger now than it has ever been, and to some extent that's reflected in results – particularly since it returned last June. Stacked fields in the rush to get competitive again produced a run of elite champions, and it was only when the level dipped appreciably that somebody else was allowed in, such as Michael Thompson in the 3M Open, Jim Herman at the Wyndham, or even Carlos Ortiz on the eve of the Masters.
Looking back over the last two years, there has been only one big surprise in a world-class PGA Tour event, and it came post-Augusta when CT Pan opportunistically won the RBC Heritage. Otherwise, even slightly peculiar winners like Jason Kokrak and Chez Reavie were hovering around the world's top 50, and the message is clear: when the company is as hot as it is this week, bets away from the front portion of the market are almost certainly vying for places only.
In an event where greens in regulation remains a decent starting point, I'm encouraged by the fact that both have led the field here in the past, and in Cantlay's case we have one of the form players on the circuit returning to one of his favourite courses.
Ignore a pair of missed cuts which came early in his career; Cantlay has been fourth, 15th and 17th here since returning from serious injury and his approach play has powered that run of success. One of the beauties of Riviera is that there is no one way to go about it, but the most consistent indicator is certainly iron play and he's shown that he can produce his best at a course he knows really well.
Right now, Cantlay's approach work is just about as good as it has ever been and he will feel as though he should've won at Pebble Beach, where instead he had to watch Berger produce the putts needed down the stretch. Cantlay's weekend woe on the greens shouldn't overly concern backers as he's been putting well for quite a while now and we should instead focus on the strength of his long-game, which could so easily have carried him to back-to-back victories given that scintillating run in the AmEx.
Leishman landed the each-way money with an excellent weekend in the Sony Open, at a course he loves, and he could do something similar here having placed at Riviera on two of his last five visits.
Again, he helps to underline the need for a few looks as, by his own admission, a course he calls 'one of my favourites all year' nevertheless took him a while to figure out.
"When I first came here, this is actually one of the courses I thought I would be able to do really well around," he said when first getting amongst it. "But for some reason, the last few years, I've just struggled to make the cut. Feel like I've been fighting on Friday just to be around for the weekend.
"Yeah, it's a course that I feel like I can do well around, if I'm playing well. And I feel like I'm striking the ball pretty well at the moment."
That was in 2016, when his form coming in read 28-MC-MC, and this time he's wiped the slate clean following a poor end to 2020 by finishing 24th in the Tournament of Champions, fourth in the Sony Open, and then 18th when defending his title at Torrey Pines a fortnight ago.
This sustained run of consistent, quality golf marks a real upturn for the world number 33 and I love the fact it's been powered by his iron play, having ranked eighth, fourth and 20th in strokes-gained approach so far. That department has fired on his last two visits to Riviera, and with the putter warming up it puts him in a really strong position.
"I'm feeling good," was his assessment ahead of the Farmers. "The Sony Open was great, I played well at Maui as well, just putted a little better at Sony. It's been well documented I didn't have my best stuff towards the middle and end of last year after we had the break. I've got that under control now and that's in the past."
Those words and the robustness of his form so far this year make Leishman an obvious contender, and unlike many on offer at 50/1 and bigger he's shown that he's more than capable of winning in this sort of company. He too brings form from Augusta to the table, the kikuyu grass you'll hear about all week is probably a positive, and I like his chances.
There will of course be some bigger priced players in the mix, but those who made their way onto my shortlist weren't quite strong enough candidates to make the staking plan. Cameron Davis is hitting the ball well and building confidence with the putter so is respected but it's odd to see him so close in the betting to someone like Matt Fitzpatrick, 30th on his debut here, inside the world's top 20, and set to enjoy pretty firm conditions.
Fitz is definitely one to consider along with Chez Reavie, who contended for this in 2016, bagged a second top-10 finish last year, and found his long-game at Pebble Beach. When Reavie flushed his way through the 2019 US Open, also at Pebble Beach, he carried that with him to victory next time out, and it's not impossible that he repeats the trick given his field-leading approach play in the Pro-Am, and small uptick for putting on poa annua greens.
Reavie and Redman could reward top-20 plays – the latter is hitting it really well again and just needs to find something with the putter – while Charley Hoffman, placed last week after a low Sunday, is a Californian with course form and some kind of chance. Perhaps some of these will feature in a specials preview later in the week, which in itself reflects the fact that as far as the pre-PLAYERS schedule goes, it doesn't get much better than this.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 15/02/21
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