Who is the best bet for the Honda Classic?
With holes 15 and 17 both capable of ruining a player's tournament, let alone their round, and a weaker-than-usual field, in general the message is to be speculative rather than confident. That said, I can't resist putting up SHANE LOWRY for the second year running in an event which is set up perfectly for him.
Lowry hasn't pressed on since winning the Open, at least not as he'd have liked, but the coronavirus-enforced pausing of the Ryder Cup points race could prove key. He now has a second bite of the cherry and after signs of promise in the Middle East to begin 2021, he put everything together to finish eighth at the PLAYERS Championship.
Most impressive about that performance was the fact that he gained strokes in every department, maintaining his strong level of play off the tee, marrying it this time with quality approach work, and again dazzling around the greens. Having changed putting grip to right-hand low it was also pleasing to see him putt well on three of the four days and I'm optimistic that he can build on his best performance in more than six months.
The fact that Lowry now goes to PGA National, just five minutes from his Florida home, means he has every chance to do so. In three visits to the course so far he's made all three cuts, improving his finishing position each time, and last year he entered the weekend right there in the mix having sat ninth at the halfway mark.
Twelve months and two weeks down the line, this time he arrives on a confidence-boosting top-10 finish in elite company, in which he saved his best ball-striking until Sunday and signed off with a birdie, before joining Lee Westwood for a Monday practice round with members at Augusta National.
Hopefully, some of Westwood's magic might rub off on his potential Ryder Cup teammate and Lowry will know he really does need to kick on if he's to achieve his number one goal and play for Padraig Harrington this September.
"I like the course at the Honda," he said on Sunday, but it's a line from Thursday which really underlines the case: "I watched a bit of the golf this morning and I could see how difficult it was playing, but that excites me. That kind of gets my juices flowing, and I like that type of golf."
Lowry will get the breezy, difficult test he so relishes and can capitalise on the weakest renewal of the Honda he's played in so far.
Russell Henley is a former champion here with an excellent record on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses in general (he redesigned this one 30 years ago), but his strength became a weakness at Sawgrass as he laboured to a disappointing missed cut. Excuses are wearing a little thin after a year of consistent promise and while I remain upbeat about his prospects going forward, taking fairly short prices has been a costly mistake in the recent past and he looks one to swerve.
That's been the case throughout his fabled Ryder Cup career and, having fallen to 65th in the world following a lacklustre start to this Ryder Cup season, and with a place in the WGC Match Play both tantalisingly close and dangling by a thread, I don't think anyone should be surprised if he conjures something from deep within yet again.
It's not as if we've nothing tangible to go on, either. Poulter hit the ball really well for a top-20 finish in Saudi Arabia, played some solid enough golf in Puerto Rico and then drove it nicely for 26th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an event with similarities to this one except boasting a stronger field.
Last week's missed cut at Sawgrass was disappointing, but I can forgive him a messy opening 77 under what were very difficult conditions. Poulter at least bounced back from that with a second-round 71, improving in all areas, and if anything it should only serve to increase his determination.
Right now, his prospects of making the Ryder Cup appear to be dwindling, and he simply needs to get into the Match Play and win some matches to remind everyone what he can bring to the table for Europe. As of today, he occupies the very last qualification spot given we know Tiger Woods will be absent, and while other top-64 players will skip the event, a missed cut this week could cost him his place.
Close to home, at a course where he ought to have won in 2015 and where he finished 27th last year, with tough conditions in his favour and his sharp scrambling a massive asset, I'm prepared to give him one more chance.
Scrambling has been vital here, to the extent that nine of the last 10 winners ranked sixth or better for the week. Some of those we might have expected, others less so, but if there is a player you like who is among the best around at getting up and down, that's certainly in their favour.
Despite generally having been an excellent putter down the years, PATTON KIZZIRE's scrambling would actually be my biggest worry but he otherwise makes stacks of appeal and in fact goes down as the best value in the event as far as I'm concerned.
Right now, the languid southerner is in the midst of the most consistent run of form of his entire PGA Tour career, having made 12 cuts in succession since failing to at the Safeway Open, and this drop in grade could be enough to see him convert solid golf into something a good deal more spectacular.
This improving Korean has seemingly gone off the boil since, his finishing positions reading 66-MC-41, but he hit it superbly throughout the PLAYERS and that suggests he might be ready to contend again at a course where his form figures read 7-38.
Last week he simply had a shocker around the greens, which is out of character — it's a department in which he's led the field twice already this year, and also been third and 11th. Indeed his final figure at Sawgrass was one of the worst of his career, and when he suffered as badly in another big event, the 2019 US Open, he improved by 12 shots the very next week.
Only last week, I was happy to take on Mickelson in the PLAYERS, where he's been abysmal in recent years. That tells you I've performed an about turn, but it's the fact he really did play quite well at Sawgrass which offers significant encouragement.
I don't want to get carried away with the idea that he could take inspiration from Westwood, a fellow 40-something who used to be world number one, because Westwood won the Race to Dubai last year and has been operating at a high level for many months. Contending at Bay Hill and Sawgrass was impressive, but not surprising.
That said I do imagine some of his long-time Ryder Cup teammates will be perked up by seeing what he can do in a game dominated by youngsters, and while that alone isn't enough to support Donald, the more I looked the closer he appeared to some decent golf.
Although yet to make a cut this year, Donald has been two or three shots away in all three starts, shooting rounds of 69 in each of his last two appearances having began with 72-70 in the AmEx. Rewind to late-2020, and he shot 70-68 at the RSM to miss on the number, either side of which he was also fighting to make the weekend.
Before this he was sixth at halfway in the Bermuda Championship and opened up 69-66 in the Shriners, and through this run he's gained strokes with his approach shots in five of the six starts for which we have stats. As is often the case when a player is grinding so hard on their swing, Donald's putter has in fact been holding him back.
In an event where putting hasn't been at all important — just one of the last eight winners ranked better than 20th — and where experience and approach play might by contrast be vital, he becomes more interesting than your average 500/1 shot — especially so with the Westwood angle.
And then we arrive at the course, his record in Florida, and his form in the event. Donald in fact won the Honda before it moved to PGA National, but he's also thrived here, with four top-10 finishes in as many appearances from 2008 to 2015. Fine, calling upon form from when he was the peak of his powers might be a stretch, but last year he finished 11th, ranking fourth in approaches, and contending having sat second at halfway.
Always at his best in Florida, that was his only start in the Sunshine State in 2020. In 2019, his only start was at the Valspar, where again he contended, and this time he finished ninth. On neither occasion was he the player he once was, but a return to courses he loves, championships he's won, and his ideal conditions helped spark him into life.
Not all missed cuts are equal, and hand on heart I fancy Donald to make this one. If he does, granted a little luck, perhaps we'll get a run for our money at just about the maximum price you'll get for a serious golfer.
Finally, given the strength of the field I'd advise anyone to keep an eye on prices relating to Monday qualifiers. As I write, the hugely promising Justin Suh is in a good position to make the field, and Erik Compton seems certain to, returning to an event in which he was fourth in 2013.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 15/03/21
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