On Saturday night at the Scottish Open, the usually amiable Robert Rock declined to speak with the media. Presumably, he felt as many did - that play ought to have been suspended, fairways such as the 18th now two parts water to one part grass. As he made his way for a hot bath - you can be sure, Robert Rock likes a hot bath - Tommy Fleetwood, drenched from head to toe, beamed in front of the Sky Sports superscreen, or whatever it is they call it.
"I loved every minute of it," he said, with meaning. "The money we play for these days... a day like that doesn't do any harm, it's fine. I'll play in it every day." It was but the latest example of one of the sport's best attitudes from one of its best and most likeable players. And it bodes well for his redemption bid. One day later, Fleetwood missed a short putt to extend the play-off, having also missed one at the 16th in regulation, and the title was Aaron Rai's.
That's back-to-back European Tour events which Fleetwood would have won with a little collaboration from his putter. Instead, his form figures read 3-2, and if he's to stick a 1 on them, he'll have to practice what he preaches and show a little perspective. Personally I've no doubt he can do it, and he need not look far for inspiration. Had Rai not blown a golden opportunity to win in Northern Ireland, would he have won a better title a week later? I doubt it.
And so Fleetwood will start the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth as the man to beat. There isn't a course on earth which isn't vulnerable to his ball-striking, not the way he hit it in Scotland or Portugal, but the Burma Road is best attacked that way. If anyone is to do what Francesco Molinari did here and metronome them into a dazed acceptance, it is surely his close friend. With Molinari making his return in Las Vegas, it would be timed to perfection.
It's important to battle such romantic vulnerabilities when taking a clear-eyed view of the market, and Fleetwood is the fair favourite, but not one who screams value at the same price as in Scotland. Not now Patrick Reed, Justin Rose and Tyrrell Hatton have been brought in to add further layers of depth to the best event played in Europe since... well, the same one last year.
Instead, it's SHANE LOWRY who stands out a mile and, with a gulp, I think he's about the best bet since golf returned in June.
Lowry is a course specialist, first and foremost, and that's a fine starting point. Wentworth takes a little knowing, for all the remodelling which has been done over the last decade. Lowry says he liked it before, just as he liked it after the first set, and the second set of changes. Those bunkers which were removed prior to 2018 have changed nothing, and whatever they do to this famous piece of land, he'll relish returning here.
Look at recent champions, and they share much in common. Since Ben An produced a remarkable display to win this as a rookie in 2015, every winner has been experienced, used to winning on the European Tour, and with previous contending experience here to call upon. Chris Wood had been the 54-hole leader on debut and fourth the year before; Alex Noren had been in the thick of it at various points; Danny Willett's profile was almost identical to Wood's. Molinari's credentials were all the more obvious: in three of the five years prior to winning, he'd led at halfway.
That tells us how useful it can be to be aware of your surroundings here in Surrey, to be able to judge the wind which swirls among the trees. Before An, Rory McIlroy won on his seventh visit, and before him, Matteo Manasseo was another to have held the lead through 54 holes here but failed to convert. It's a startlingly strong trend which even takes in shock 2010 winner Simon Khan, who had also played here six times previously, and also gone close.
That effort at The Renaissance was his best driving and approach play since the restart, not far off the levels he produced when second in the European Open last year before coming here, and we've seen in Turkey, Italy, the Nedbank, Dubai and The Open that he's a big-game player.
Those latter two efforts came in foul weather and he's also been runner-up in Denmark and at Hillside when the wind has played its part. Ultimately, persistent rain is not welcomed by anyone, but he'll cope better than most and at the same price as last week, with a better performance now tucked away and a valuable first four rounds with his new caddie, he can go close.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout was an excellent third on his debut at Wentworth, and it was only a poor week with the putter which saw him miss the cut in Scotland. He's respected along with compatriots Branden Grace (exceptional course form) and Justin Harding (correlating form and might like it here), but next on my list is ALEX BJORK.
It's perhaps asking too much for a one-time European Tour winner to step up and win a Rolex Series event, but it did happen last week and Bjork has been hinting all summer that he's right back to his best.
We saw him sign off with sixth in the spring and he was third at the Forest of Arden not long after the restart, with his sole missed cut in seven events coming at the Wales Open. Otherwise he's been very solid, and what I really like is the consistency and quality of his iron play: he's ranked seventh, 10th and eighth in strokes-gained approach over the last three events.
That was the staple of Bjork's early success, which included a debut 14th here, and with the putter generally behaving and the catastrophic driving of 2019 now firmly in the past, he has put the pieces in place to go well at a course suited to his game.
Even throughout a difficult spell, he did enough to rank 23rd in bogey avoidance last season - MacIntyre was 12th, Pieters 34th and Lowry 28th. That's a handy pointer given that four of the last five winners ranked first, second or third for the week, with the other ninth - Wentworth is the sort of place where everyone will find a spot of bother at some stage, and how you escape it may prove essential.
Cool conditions ought to bring out the best in the Swede, who can follow not just Noren but the lesser known Rikard Karlberg in contending here.
I had hoped to put up Shubhankar Sharma only for his price to tumble following another step forward in Scotland, so the final vote goes to a player who likely has a lot more success in front of him - ADRI ARNAUS.
This quality Spaniard is best known for his long driving and it's that which will power his career. Indeed, it almost saw him get off the mark in Prague last summer, only for Pieters to respond to each and every punch.
Still, like Pieters, Arnaus actually has a wealth of form at tighter, shorter venues, having been fourth at Club de Campo, sixth at Crans, second at Valderrama and in Kenya throughout what was an excellent rookie season which saw him make the DP World Tour Championship.
His progress has been halted by circumstances beyond his control but I really like where he's going, and the fact that he defied nasty conditions to finish third in Dubai earlier this year is a further piece of encouragement when it comes to potentially battling the elements here.
He did so nicely last week, recovering from a first-round 75 to shoot 66 on Friday and 67 on Saturday, and before that he signed off with a fabulous 65 at Galgorm Castle to suggest he's about to start threatening the top of leaderboards.
His approach play in both Northern Ireland and Scotland was among the best in the field, and with rain set to soften up Wentworth I think the power advantage he possesses off the tee could be hugely beneficial. Indeed, strong driving plays a part in the case for all selections bar Bjork, who does his best work thereafter.
To be truthful, I would rather be backing him at a shorter price in a lesser event, but Arnaus won the season-ending Challenge Tour Grand Final, and I don't think he's one to shirk the issue should he do as An did and take to this course at the first time of asking.
At the price, given the signs he's shown lately, that's a chance worth taking.
Posted at 1945 BST on 05/10/20
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