For the third time in seven months, the European Tour will host successive tournaments at the same golf course. Back in August, the Celtic Classic preceded the Wales Open, then came a fortnight in Cyprus, and now we have the Kenya Open followed by the Savannah Classic, only this time, the gap between the end of the first and the beginning of the second is less than 48 hours.
Although there were several players who played in only one of the two tournaments at Celtic Manor, and Rasmus Hojgaard jetted in exclusively for the Showdown, expect almost identical fields this time — for those with the option, it would seem strange to travel down to Nairobi and not stick around for another week even in the event of a premature exit. And while the variable weather of Wales and some playing with formats in Cyprus meant for quite different tests, it looks like we can rely on the Kenyan capital for sunshine and a gentle breeze and two tournaments distinguishable only by name.
We can worry about how to react to the Kenya Open next week, but for now the challenge is to work out who might follow in the footsteps of Guido Migliozzi, who won here in impressive style two years ago — that's if the Italian, a luckless runner-up in Qatar on Sunday, doesn't double-up himself. That of course is entirely possible, and he's going to relish the opportunity to hit his low bullet off the tee here, but at 25/1 he looks short enough in the betting.
The same is also true of the form player, Kurt Kitayama, and the player I really like at the top of the market is the one who won the second of those Welsh tournaments, ROMAIN LANGASQUE.
It's through players like Migliozzi, Adri Arnaus and Langasque that we're best able to gauge what might be needed here, and they hint that strong driving could be more important than you might expect.
Karen is a typical Kenyan course, born out of colonialism and designed by an English banker. It's narrow in places, tree-lined and with out-of-bounds and water hazards lurking, though it's not quite as claustrophobic as Muthaiga, which has also hosted this event in the past.
Veerman was 17th here in 2019, but that doesn't tell anything like the full story. Not only did he open with a round of 76, but he ended bogey-bogey, still managing to play the final 54 holes better than anyone bar Harding. It was an outstanding debut at Karen and one he can build on having got better and better in the interim.
Like Langasque, Veerman's performance here makes sense. He's since been 10th at Valderrama, has form at altitude in the SA Open, and threatened to win at Leopard Creek, just as Arnaus did late last year. Form such as fourth on a tight, old-fashioned course in Malaysia and 10th in the Australian PGA further highlights that he has the right game for this challenge.
Garrick Higgo, Jayden Schaper, De Jager, Harding and Dean Burmester all deserve respect as a result and I would likely have chanced the latter had he not withdrawn last week.
Part of the logic for liking Burmester is his outstanding record at Pretoria, and J.C. Ritchie also comes into calculations on both that basis and two top-six finishes at high altitude in the SA Open. Ritchie, who appears to be in decent form and certainly drives it well, saw his close friend win on the Sunshine Tour last week and could be inspired by that.
At shorter odds, however, I've come to the conclusion that DANIEL VAN TONDER is in fact capable of converting his Sunshine Tour dominance into a European Tour win.
Van Tonder has been a revelation since rededicating himself during last year's lockdown, shedding weight and getting his head straight for the resumption. When it came, he won four times in seven starts.
The worry would be that these low-level events don't actually mean a great deal when the European Tour comes to town, and having finished 76th in Joburg, 39th at Leopard Creek and then missed the cut in the SA Open, it's easy to reach that conclusion.
However, he was right there throughout the week in the middle event, prior to which he'd opened 69-69 at Randpark, and the latter is a course he just doesn't appear to like, his form there reading MC-59-MC-76.
The fact he was 25/1 for that tournament, in which Arnaus and Christiaan Bezuidenhout featured along with Brandon Stone, Rozner, Shaun Norris and several other relatively big names, suggests to me that there's been an overreaction to what appears to be confirmation that he's not quite up to this level.
Nienaber led this field in birdie average last year, as well as par-five scoring average, ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green and off-the-tee, and behind only Veerman in strokes-gained total.
It was a hugely promising run from summer through to the DP World Tour Championship, where he again demonstrated both the inherent volatility of such an aggressive swinger and the ability which could see him become a world-class player in the years to come.
Getting him right along the way won't be easy, because his extraordinary swing speed can make for some wild results, but nor should we assume he needs a wide-open field to be dangerous.
Ramsay's form is a bit of a concern but he sounds pretty bullish at the moment, and unlike Rai managed to make the weekend in Doha having very much been drawn on the wrong side.
Although his promise of a low round never materialised, he was three-under through 11 on Sunday only to double the 12th, the only blemish on his scorecard. Hopefully, he left there believing he's on the cusp of something because as a winner in South Africa and Morocco, with form at all the right places, he might just love it here at Karen.
This Australian could've won the Irish Open last year and his quality long-game marks him down as one to follow in 2021, especially having started off with finishes of 14-WD-16-7 back home before an excellent 19th in Qatar last week.
Antcliff was among those hurt by the draw, playing his second round in the worst of the wind, but 18 birdies at Education City is good going and represented sharp improvement from his debut at the course.
That ties in with his overall rate of progress and having been excellent off the tee for a while now, and better yet with his approach work, Antcliff could be ready to contend at a course he should like. Firm, fast conditions hold no fears for most Aussie players and his sole start in South Africa saw him finish 13th at altitude.
A three-time winner in China, he's got what it takes to get the job done and at 66/1 looks decent value.
Posted at 1030 GMT on 16/03/21
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