When one tournament begins less than 48 hours after another, and both of these tournaments take place at the same course, and the most notable additions to the field are Nicolai von Dellinghausen and Thriston Lawrence, there's only one thing for it: you have to mark your own homework. We've all had one go at this, and establishing which elements of that first attempt we can carry over for the second is the only place to begin.
Anyone who has ever been told that their working out was good will know what that really means: your answer was wrong. That's probably the fairest way to summarise my selections for the Kenya Open, where Richie Ramsay dropped from a share of the lead to a share of 52nd on Saturday, where Johannes Veerman started the final round two back and had doubled that margin after one hole, where I paid the price for not making 'any South African winner at 9/2' part of the staking plan, and where Romain Langasque's place payout didn't cover the week.
Some nice ideas, yes, but you have basically failed the exam. It really is like being back at school.
That working out, though. Sometimes, it bears fruit, and for once we don't have to wait an entire year to be able to say so. And while fully prepared to learn lessons and come back with an entirely new set of ideas, the truth is that the core arguments last week now look more robust for Justin Harding's win, rather than less, and while going in to bat with the same squad isn't perhaps the answer — sorry, Richie and Johannes, but I just can't — pulling at those same threads is.
Yes, Horsfield's price has been revised, just like all those who played well, but I don't think it's enough. Coming into the Kenya Open, we had to guess whether his back problem had been cured, with the fact he skipped some mega-money events in January and February only adding to that concern. Even if known to be fit, we would've had to accept guaranteed rust, as he hadn't been seen competitively since before Christmas.
Horsfield, who opened up with a round of 65 and finished with another, answered all those questions. In tying for eighth, he demonstrated that he has the tools to take down this quirky course, where his natural aggression is just a perfect fit, and his ball-striking stats — 14th off the tee, 24th on approach — were impressive. But for that rust which cost him during the middle rounds and largely revealed itself in some issues on and around the greens, he might have been a serious threat to Harding.
Burmester had withdraw from his previous start in Qatar, but for which I would've been including him in last week's staking plan. Now we know there is nothing amiss following four good rounds, Saturday's quiet day at the office keeping him out of the top five, I'm more than happy to take a shorter price at a course he fell in love with.
"I was ecstatic when I pitched up here on Tuesday and saw the golf course," said Burmester. "It definitely reminds me of (Harare Country Club). My mom has played well there, and won numerous tournaments around there. I was lucky enough to win there in 2015, the Zim Open. Being born there, that was awesome.
"The only difference is this is probably slightly flatter around the greens. Lots of irons and three woods off the tee there, and pure greens like we have here. It’s exciting and I can’t wait for the weekend."
Langasque is of course hard to leave out, having been inside the top 10 on all three starts at the course now. His driving powered last week's share of fifth, with his approach play leaving plenty of room for improvement, and the Frenchman is as comfortable as any of the South Africans at this wonderful little course.
I don't think he's a bad price, either, and he would be preferred to all others not yet mentioned who are priced up at 33/1 and shorter, while Pep Angles has to be considered at 66/1. Shortlisted in last week's preview, he was making his first start since December and finished strongly to share eighth at a course he'd enjoyed on his debut two years earlier.
This Spanish powerhouse, with top-20 finishes at Valderrama and in Joburg, looks like he came of age with his first Challenge Tour win in November and having hit the ball really well isn't easy to overlook despite having halved in price.
Instead though I have to give another chance to DANIEL VAN TONDER at 45/1 (eight places; 55/1 available with bet365, who pay five).
This Sunshine Tour star missed the cut on the number after a brilliant finish to his second round and is worth one more chance to prove that he can make the leap to the European Tour. If he needed a boost on that front, he need only look to Harding, who for a long time looked like his level was lower.
Crucially in terms of overlooking his disappointing effort last week, when he was on the back foot early, Van Tonder drove the ball brilliantly. That platform is one from which scores can be built here, demonstrated by Hend, Migliozzi and many more, and perhaps on reflection he suffered a bit of a hangover for losing a play-off the previous weekend.
The world number 140 knows this is a big chance to secure his European Tour card, as good perhaps as he will get given his strong form at Karen prior to last week, and anything 40/1 and bigger seems fair in the circumstances.
Of those much further down the list, Julien Guerrier is an excellent driver, with lots of form to tie in with Karen which might even include Mauritius, given that Harding and Kitayama did battle there once. He made 20 birdies and two eagles last week and could threaten if tidying things up, as might Valderrama eighth Masahiro Kawamura, whose long-game looked sharp despite a missed cut. He was six-under through 12 in round two before a few late mistakes proved costly.
Sebastian Soderberg is a former course winner who was popular enough at 125-150/1 and, having missed the cut on the number, will do for many at an inflated price. A winner in Crans who has also been 23rd at Valderrama, he has all the relevant form we need and did make 10 birdies despite missing the cut on the number. Again, it's really not too big a concern and we may see some of those who've had nothing else to do but hit the range take big steps forward.
At an even bigger price however, TOBY TREE again caught the eye with some quality approach work as he finished down the field and this Englishman, who has played a lot of golf in Africa, could go well at 350/1 with bet365, or 250/1 with a few extra places.
That quote from Burmester about a likeness with Royal Harare is backed up by plenty of similarities between leaderboards, with Harding placed there, Burmester himself a champion, and the likes of De Jager and Haydn Porteous either winning or going close at both.
It's perhaps worth something, then, that Tree was an in-the-mix eighth on his one and only start there, while he's also contended at Pretoria, sitting fifth through 54 holes and fading to 14th during the very early stages of his professional career in a tournament won by Charl Schwartzel.
Digging around for something else to suggest he might go well at here, and I noticed that while way down the field at Valderrama last year, he actually led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green. In other words, while he had an absolute shocker with the putter, the make-up of that idiosyncratic course proved just to his liking.
Tree opened with a bogey-free 67 last week and was among the better ball-strikers, so it seems Karen is another of these fiddly, tree-lined courses he likes, and having made both cuts to start the year he is worth a small bet to take a big leap forward and contend.
Posted at 0745 GMT on 22/03/21
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