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It's six months since Hudson Swafford defied poor form and a massive starting price to win his second PGA Tour title at the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic and yet (don't say strange times, don't say strange times, don't say...) in these strange times, he's back already to defend his title.
While Shane Lowry enjoys his second full year in possession of the Claret Jug, Swafford's time as champion has been cruelly slashed and yet for those without the exemption he earned that week, this is a precious gift from the suits: a chance to earn some money, some FedEx Cup points, even some silverware, and to advertise their credentials as one of golf's 'strategic decision makers' in the Aon Risk-Reward Challenge.
Much to ponder and that's true of another fabulously varied field, much like the one we were treated to in Puerto Rico last month. Out go Branden Grace, Matt Wallace, Ian Poulter and Andrew Putnam; in come the likes of Charles Howell, Danny Willett, Nate Lashley, and tournament favourite CHARLEY HOFFMAN.
Siding with the market leaders in events such as these shouldn't be done flippantly, because there's a reason Hoffman is here, just as is the case for Thomas Pieters and Emiliano Grillo. Any recent winning form at this level and they simply would not be, and in Hoffman's case the winless run now stretches back almost exactly five years, to the Valero Texas Open.
With that event to come in a week, Hoffman is giving himself the maximum opportunity to qualify for the Masters, though he's going to have to win and possibly twice. Still, good play here will strengthen his chances of an 11th-hour bid in San Antonio, and he must have a huge chance.
Corales is a long par 72 with wide fairways, described often as a second-shot course. In truth, it's been more third and fourth in the three years this tournament has featured on the PGA Tour, with Brice Garnett, Graeme McDowell and Swafford all producing brilliant weeks on the greens.
That in itself makes me a little uneasy, but some of the names closest to them and the recent rain that has fallen here promises a subtle shift. With four par-fives to go at, upon which scoring has always been vital, it may well be that this becomes somewhat more of a ball-striking test — and that puts Hoffman as the standout candidate.
That plus seventh place at El Camaleon is ample evidence that he's a big player here and if the course does play softer and longer, with a little more rain in the forecast, then it will suit one of the best drivers in the field. List has a lot in his favour and should threaten the places at least.
Long off the tee and good with the putter, success may depend on whether he can find that quality approach work from the first two rounds of the Honda. After some more good golf in Monday's Seminole Pro-Member, in which Gordon and his partner took second, I'm more than hopeful he can do that and leave behind him a missed cut here on his first try.
Gordon has a much more solid bank of form now, having made six of his last seven cuts, and is similar in profile to several who've gone close here recently — McCumber in particular.
The latter looks a very obvious selection for this and I was a little surprised to see plenty of 50 and 55/1 around. He was runner-up to Swafford having arrived on eight missed cuts in nine starts, and on his only prior visit sat third through 54 holes before a chastening final round saw him slip to 19th.
Camilo Villegas could build on last week's top 10 and land a popular win having shown a liking for paspalum greens in the past, as well as boasting an excellent record in the wind. He's respected along with course specialist Joel Dahmen, who has been a stroke outside the top 10 on all three visits here, at varying points in his career, and hit the ball to a very high standard at Sawgrass last time.
He's just one of those I've failed to get right and after plenty of back and forth I've decided to take a slightly bigger price about PAT PEREZ.
Another El Camaleon winner, Perez was really popular here back in September, going off half the odds we're able to take today. That's despite the fact it was his debut at the course, and I'm hoping he learned plenty from four solid rounds, especially as he played the tougher back-nine so well and signed off with a 68.
I suspect he saw enough to be excited by this return to the Dominican Republic and part of the reason he was fancied last time is that two of his PGA Tour wins have come on these paspalum greens. Granted, he appeared to be in better form back then, but he's been playing in stronger company lately and has made six of his 10 cuts dating back to Mexico last December.
Three of those he missed came by a single shot, the other at Sawgrass where he shot an opening 77 on that brutal Thursday but responded with a three-under 69 in round two. Four decent rounds at the Honda confirm he isn't far away and the fact he's only had one week off since the Sony suggests he's healthier and more motivated than he has been for a while now.
In many ways, Perez boasts qualities similar to the last three winners here and having also been 18th in the Barracuda, he's yet another who can turn mid-pack finishes into something far better now he's one of the classier players in the field.
Others of note include Satoshi Kodaira, a seaside PGA Tour winner who hit his irons really well at the Honda, and RSM Classic champion Tyler Duncan. Both are priced pretty generously while I looked at the Aussies following Matt Jones' win, but the money for Lucas Herbert now looks to have him at the right sort of price.
That was going to be that, but having sided with LUKE DONALD last week I want to give him one more try.
The case for Donald was of course based largely on a strong record in the Honda, and he ultimately missed the cut by two. But I can't stress enough, for those who didn't spend two days tracking his every move, how well he played for the most part. Indeed Donald was five-under for 34 of the 36 holes, but dropped eight shots on the other two.
Six of those came at the par-three 17th, a fearsome and brutal hole which can make anyone look silly. Given he's been missing cuts for a while, it isn't hugely surprising that one mistake led to another, and that his nine there bled into the next couple of holes and a double-bogey to add to his woes.
What impressed me most was the way he fought back. Donald played his final 26 holes in five-under, hitting quality approach shot upon quality approach shot and, in the second round, finding one or two putts. There were of course some errant drives but these fairways in the Dominican Republic are wide and he should feel far more comfortable off the tee, having always been a player who gets to work thereafter.
If he continues to hit his irons as well, Donald can definitely make the cut here. He's been close to doing so in every single start since he last managed it, in Bermuda, another opposite event and one in which he was sixth at halfway. This is a similar challenge and, with all of his best recent form accompanied by a breeze, it's one this long-time Florida specialist should take to.
Of course, if the course does play longer than usual that's against him, but there are underlying positives which mark him out as a far bigger threat here than his odds imply. They are based on those letters next to his name, but at the risk of being wrong again, not all missed cuts are equal. He's much closer than he looks.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 23/03/21
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