I will admit that events like the Hero World Challenge don't exactly set my pulse racing from a tipping perspective, and the anticipated return of Tiger Woods is now cancelled after he revealed a foot injury would delay his return.
In terms of finding the winner, there's a very sound case for Jon Rahm. Not only has he finished first and second in two starts here, but arriving on the back of a win has been a great pointer. Viktor Hovland completed a double last year, just as Hideki Matsuyama did in 2016, and Jordan Spieth also managed it at Isleworth.
Others turning up with a recent win behind them have generally fared well, Rahm included in fact, and he's certainly the man to beat. Unfortunately, weekend prices of 13/2 have disappeared as bookmakers revisit the market, and having not driven the ball as well as he can in Dubai I think 5/1 is short enough. He was a bigger price there and this looks a little tougher.
Motivation is a big unknown in this points and cash grab, but Morikawa has one chance left to keep alive his annual winning streak and that's hopefully going to guarantee his focus, even if he did get married on Saturday.
Of course, this underlines that he's had a generally poor year and the most troubling aspect is that he's never really had a chance to win. However, while a number of recent events don't give us strokes-gained data, he's been in the top 10 for greens hit in four of his last five starts and led the field last time out.
This suggests his long-game is back up and running, which is supported by what strokes-gained data we do have. It's fair to say it rarely deserts him for long but there were certainly times this summer when he struggled badly off the tee and with his approaches, making do with a right-to-left ball flight as he fought hard to remain competitive.
All six of his wins have relied on a strong greens-hit return and four of them came after a top-10 ranking last time out, so there's enough in his profile to believe that he is ready to win if solving the riddle of his putter.
Morikawa has been abysmal on the greens more than once recently and won't win this if that run continues, but at a time of year when many begin experimenting, I'm happy to chance him finding something functional that would make him a runner at what's an obviously generous price relative to ability.
He won both the Open and the WGC Workday after losing seven strokes on the greens the week prior and he improved by two shots per round when landing the US PGA, so we've seen him engineer rapid turnarounds before.
Remember, Morikawa led by five shots through 54 holes on his debut here, before succumbing to the pressure of the situation – a win would've taken him to the top of the world rankings – and that's another reason to believe he'll be determined to produce his best golf of the year. It's not beyond him to do so even if practise has taken a back seat over the last few days.
I'll also take a chance on CAMERON YOUNG, a debutant but one with the right game for the course.
Five par-fives and a driveable par-four explain why some fabulous drivers have shone here and while Young's form has seemingly dipped since summer, his iron play at the CJ Cup was as good as it's been almost all year long.
If he gets his driver purring at this far more straightforward layout then he'll have a lot of scoring opportunities, and as for playing by the sea at a course where hitting driver upon driver is encouraged, he was runner-up in the Open Championship last time he had such conditions.
Putting is also an issue for Young but he's had enough good weeks on bermuda greens to offer some hope and at 20s he's a player I can see really taking to Albany, and perhaps deservedly landing a breakthrough win albeit one which would count as unofficial.
Selections posted at 1930 GMT on 28/11/22
Finished third on his debut in this at the end of a breakthrough 2021 and it could've been better: beaten three shots in the end, he made back-to-back par-five bogeys during round four, plus a seven at the driveable 14th. Having been level with the eventual winner with five to play, it was a chance missed. Form coming in had been red-hot but this time returns under something of a cloud following withdrawal in Houston, while his previous seventh was courtesy of a red-hot putter. Could bounce back to form under what appear to be ideal conditions, though.
Canadian gets in as a late replacement for Presidents Cup teammate Hideki Matsuyama. Had a debut to forget at Quail Hollow in that competition but back to form since, with three top-25 finishes in his three subsequent starts. That none of them saw him challenge for what would be a second professional win says plenty and while that overdue follow-up will surely come, the price you pay for his consistency can be a high one. Could be sharper than some but not convinced this course is ideal for all that some of his best putting displays have come on bermuda greens. Will likely need one of them.
Reinvented as a prolific winner now having bagged three titles in his last seven tournaments, more than he'd managed in a years-long career at the top level beforehand. Runner-up finish here was in keeping with his profile at the time whereas it's now hard to argue against his prospects of yet another victory having perhaps wisely chosen to skip the RSM Classic. Five par-fives plus a par-four that can be driven make it an obvious fit and there are no issues around the prospect of wind, either. Faded following a strong start last year but still maintained what's a strong course record, and must be among the favourites.
Made a steady debut last year when 12th with four under-par rounds and has come a long way since, cracking the code to win both his first PGA Tour and first major title in one go at the US Open. Disappointed not to make a better go of adding the Race to Dubai when fading from first to fifth but it was on balance a step back in the right direction. Nevertheless, a little disconcerting to see him drive the ball poorly at a course he loves and you'd have to say this one is likely less suitable for all he boasts a quality all-round game. Can't rule him out of course but would just be wary of the tank running empty having been so invested in topping the DP World Tour points list.
One of the form picks having taken a shine to Albany when third in 2017, and recently rediscovered his best with a win in South Africa followed by fifth place in Dubai. What's most pleasing is that there's real substance to the way he's gone about achieving these two results, with his best fortnight of iron play in memory and much improved consistency off the tee. Yes, he had a bit of luck in South Africa but to win and then finish close behind Jon Rahm while putting poorly on both occasions tells you his long-game is well and truly back. Wouldn't be a surprise if he contended again.
Two more wins in 2022 and a Presidents Cup debut earned him an invite for his first Hero Challenge and he's now very much on the fringes of the game's best. Enough to like about his two performances since Quail Hollow after impressing everyone there, although it's fair to say he's won at very different golf courses to this one and there's a chance he's outgunned on this open terrain on debut. Might just be compensated for a quiet week by playing with Tiger Woods at some stage which would make for some lovely stuff on social media.
Never a factor on his sole previous start at Albany, starting the final round in 17th place among a field of 18 and still finishing well adrift of the contenders despite closing with a 67. Doubt it's a great course for him and while he's one we can probably rely upon to arrive here fully focused, has to be said he was disappointing under more suitable conditions in Mexico. Bottom-half finish predicted.
Won this on debut with a brilliant final-round 66 which exploded with back-to-back eagles at holes 14 and 15. First was a slightly fortunate hole-out but the second was Hovland at his ball-striking best and, to date, remains arguably the most impressive single moment of his career. Still to win in mainland USA but has ideal conditions by the sea in the Bahamas and has already defended one title, so there's enough to like on the face of it. Form can be viewed one of two ways: he's not really hit the ball as we know he can for some time, yet he's finished in the top 35 of every start since the Open in July and been in there with a chance on three occasions.
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