The Scottish Championship may not have survived, that seemingly one-off event confined to a Wikipedia page where Adrian Otaegui's name will remain until the world ends, but Fairmont St Andrews is back to host its second European Tour event. Just south of the famous one, this course proved something of a cakewalk as Otaegui reached 23-under despite two rounds of 70, and unless the worst of the forecast rain arrives we might get something similar before settling in for evenings of relative struggle over in the USA.
Measuring 7,230 yards, Sam Torrance's design is in fact the approximate equal of Southwind, home of the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational, but plays to a par of 72 and as well as four shortish par-fives, the par-four seventh doesn't even require driver for many of the field to hit the green off the tee. It was and is easy, designed really for tourists, and looking back it makes perfect sense that it boiled down to a battle of precise iron play and deadly putting.
Links golf, or a form of it, always comes with those weather-related caveats and there's a small hint in the forecast that an early start on Thursday could prove beneficial. Still, it was cool and breezy at times last year and only on Saturday did nobody in the field manage a round of 64 or better, of which there were five in total during the week. That being said the cut itself was not extraordinarily low by any means, with one-under making it, and there are enough blue and black numbers on the European Tour leaderboard to confirm that there's trouble lurking for the extremely wayward.
Andy Sullivan is favourite for the second week in succession and this time is very tempting at what's left of the 16/1, almost twice what some were quoting seven days ago. One of if not the classiest player in the field, he's hardly had a bad day since the PGA Championship and should do better than in the ISPS Handa World Invitational, where he failed to capitalise on an eye-catching start.
Ryan Fox and Eddie Pepperell are the other two at the front of the market who have competed at a far higher level, both having been second in Rolex Series events, and Pepperell is the best iron player in the field on this season's form. Given that he's so often raised his game in the UK and Ireland, something we saw in patches last week, odds of 33/1 are perfectly fair for all it's hard to imagine him lighting up the greens in the way that may be required.
All things considered there's no need to deviate too much from last week's plan, that is to say that 'if in doubt, leave them out' is a necessary maxim at this level, not least when we're so close to the sea. Yet this time I do have a very strong fancy at the odds, with JB HANSEN considered hugely overpriced.
Hansen has been very much in-and-out this year but that's far from out of character, and all three of his top-10 finishes give us something to work with here in Scotland, from the ability in a breeze showcased in Qatar and the lights-out scoring of Gran Canaria, through to sixth place in Sweden, where Otaegui ought to have won, and Jonathan Caldwell did.
Caldwell was seventh here last year, tying things together nicely, and if there's one leaderboard to study closely it might just be that one from the Scandinavian Mixed. Hansen, who finished sixth despite arriving on the back of two missed cuts, is the one who stands out and though the journey here from the Olympics perhaps isn't ideal, I also like the way he played in Tokyo.
In amongst some of the best players in the sport, Hansen was in fact the best iron player in the field, shooting three rounds in the sixties and suffering one difficult day to finish mid-pack. It was a hugely eye-catching performance, not least because he does rely on quality approach play and did so when beating Wilco Nienaber on his turf to win the Joburg Open in November.
Simply put, Hebert is one of the best iron players in the field — indeed he ranks fourth among them for the season — and while others have their figures boosted by some questionable takings in Austria or else by the odd flashy performance, the Frenchman has somewhat typically been ultra consistent.
Each of his six starts prior to the Open yielded positive strokes-gained approach figures and nine of 12 going further back, while at Royal St George's he finished well for 33rd, which would've been at the upper end of even his expectations.
Although his career hasn't quite taken off since, he was a shot away from winning a Rolex Series title in South Africa in 2019, the most valuable event in European Tour history, and there were signs late last year that he wasn't far off once more. Significantly, all four top-20 finishes post-lockdown came from six such opportunities in the UK, versus a nought-from-seven return elsewhere.
As far as 2021 goes, things have been very different. Kinhult has played in eight events in total and hasn't finished inside the top 50 as yet. However, there is a reason he took April, May and most of June off, and it's that he collapsed in a hotel room in the spring and was subsequently diagnosed with a form of epilepsy. When it came, his return was surely designed with the Open in mind, as he played three times prior to missing the cut at Royal St George's.
Stone has been in generally poor form, with six missed cuts in eight starts, and only shares of 40th and 75th outside of those. The worrying aspect to this downturn is that it largely stems from his approach work, as he's generally driven the ball well and his putting has been serviceable, too.
Given that last year's Scottish Championship was a game of irons, that's a big negative but it's outweighed by the fact he's capable of high-class form such as second place to Paul Casey in the Dubai Desert Classic, which came after a fairly hopeless missed cut in Abu Dhabi and was followed by another big effort in the breeze in Qatar.
Here we have a player who ranks inside the top 20 in this field for both approach play and putting, one of just a handful to do so. In fact that underplays Woods statistics: he's seventh in strokes-gained approach and fifth in strokes-gained putting of those who make up this field.
There's a caveat with the irons as his figures in Austria likely need downgrading, data having been collected by caddies that week, however there can be no doubt that his iron play has been consistently good and that he's being held back by some pretty horrific driving numbers, which also explain his long-term malaise.
about his struggles back in May, on his way to 11th place at the British Masters. "I’m proud of myself,” he said of his battle against form and fitness issues. "I’m not sure how many in my position would have kept going. I’ve had to dig deep... but it’s in me. I’m not a quitter. I just can’t walk away. I don’t want to be looking back in 20 years time wishing I had gutted it out."
Wood also said that he was 'pretty close now' and though his results since have failed to back that up, his approaches and putting have been strong and he did fire a final-round 65 to finish 32nd at Celtic Manor last time.
Clearly, he's going to need more but this former BMW PGA Championship winner is a fine links golfer who is the forgotten man of the 2009 Open, where he finished third, and who was fifth as an amateur at Carnoustie. His first professional win came in Qatar, at a course which favours those who are good in the breeze, and if Wales gave him the required injection of confidence he could well build on it.
As with a couple of mine there's plenty of if and but here. A coastal, European Tour event on a course we're still learning about demands as much.
Posted at 1930 BST on 02/08/21
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