Four players remain under par in the US Open heading into today's final round, and they're the only four players priced at less than 20/1. At the end of a long week, it now seems close to certain that we'll have something of a surprise champion.
Leading the way is Sam Burns and, as an elite golfer who was runner-up last week, some may feel the word 'surprise' is too strong. But Burns was upwards of 50/1 largely on account of a poor majors record which includes a missed cut here from his amateur days. So far it's played 20 and just one top 10, that a staying-on share of ninth at Pinehurst a year ago.
After JJ Spaun's closing bogey saw him fall out of the lead, Burns will have a new partner in Adam Scott, who has hit the ball beautifully this week. I won't have been alone in wondering whether Scott's days of contending for majors were behind him but now, a month shy of his 45th birthday, Scott has a fabulous opportunity to win a second some 12 years after he won his first.
Spaun may benefit from having fallen out of that final group and will play with Viktor Hovland, who also bogeyed the 18th and is three behind. Hovland is, on the form of the last few years, the classiest of these contenders, the one for whom a major has for a while seemed likely, and he's also the only one of them who has won a golf tournament recently. Spaun almost did, but settled for second at Sawgrass.
You could argue for any one of the three pursuers: Hovland's class, Scott's experience, the fact that Spaun's game is so tidy and that he's no longer in the final group. You can also make a strong case that 7/4 about Burns is value on a scattered leaderboard and that's the one I find the most compelling. In the end, this tournament may play out in an obvious way and this for sure is a fabulous chance for the leader.
LIV duo Carlos Ortiz and Tyrrell Hatton can't be totally discounted in the third-to-last group. Ortiz has hit the ball supremely well for most of the tournament while Hatton and his arrow-straight ball-flight would've been tempting had he been just that bit closer, say one-under instead of one-over. Both are going to need help and it was notable how narrow scoring dispersion was yesterday, with nobody breaking 67.
I'm looking forward to watching and will be hoping to see Scott defiantly become a two-time major champion, but if you come down on the side of the 7/4 favourite at the end of a long and expensive week, and that player missed a five-foot putt to win for you last week, it's probably time to draw stumps where the outright betting is concerned.
Before we come to the two-balls, one market that does interest me is the low final-round score. Reading the USGA's weather forecast handout, they're prepared for some rain and potential storms from 11am-2pm, then a breezier afternoon from there. The earlier that rain comes the more players would have to deal with it on the tougher front-nine, by which time the very earliest starters may be well into the back.
Of course, the earliest starters have struggled and there will be those who have checked out, but I don't mind taking a chance on big-hitting TAYLOR PENDRITH at 50/1. Twice this year, including at last month's PGA, he's defied tough conditions on big golf courses to climb into the top 10 on Sunday and from the fourth group out, he makes more appeal than an admittedly streaky Matthieu Pavon.
Rory McIlroy is overpriced at 20/1 with Sky Bet but he's only 10/1 with Paddy Power and BoyleSports so the other I'll side with is NIKLAS NORGAARD, a player with similar skills to Pendrith whose driver and putter were both good yesterday. More of the same and this powerful Dane could be another to take advantage of what seems to be a preferable tee-time.
The two of them plus McIlroy make for a 9/2 treble and, under calm conditions, we're asking these three prodigious drivers to put those skills to use on a course which did play easier as Saturday wore on. Denny McCarthy is a dangerous opponent versus Norgaard but he's actually been less accurate and less prolific on the greens, the areas in which he holds a theoretical advantage.
Later on, I'll side with European trio MATT WALLACE, ROBERT MACINTYRE and TYRRELL HATTON.
Bar perhaps Wallace I doubt the other two will be thinking about the Ryder Cup, but for all of them today's round could have a big say in their attempts to qualify. Hatton for instance lies fifth and there are limited chances for him to earn more points, though in his case selection is a formality. I do like how he's playing though and this is new territory for Ortiz.
For the other two, Ryder Cup qualification is far from a given and I liked how both spoke after their third rounds. Wallace clearly feels he's set up for a big summer push at achieving a career goal and he did everything well on Saturday. He can put his experience to use against promising rookie Ryan Gerard and for my money should be favourite rather than a marginal underdog.
MacIntyre is favourite and rightly so versus Cameron Young, whose putter carried him into the tournament but noticeably cooled yesterday. The Scot can kick on for his first US Open top-10 and while of course Young is capable of doing the same, I'm not sure I would trust him to. It wouldn't surprise me at all were he to fade, whereas I expect MacIntyre to hang around.
Posted at 0830 BST on 15/06/25
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