It's a little early for regrets, but there are two facts about the 2016 US Open I wish I'd paid even more attention to ahead of the 2025 renewal, which is already threatening to play out in a similar fashion.
One is total driving but it really is too soon to talk about how highly-ranked JJ Spaun is in that area, especially as he putted so well on Thursday. The other though is how few of the world's best players contended at Oakmont nine years ago. Arguably the best player in the game won that week, but most of the big names were well out of things.
Something somewhat similar unfolded in 2007 and if you compare these two renewals to say the last couple at Torrey Pines or Pinehurst, Oakmont has produced more varied, less predictable leaderboards. My inclination was to believe that would change, especially with the top of men's golf so strong at the moment, but there are some indications to the contrary.
Still, there are 54 holes still to play and enough world-class players within hailing distance of the lead for us not to rush to judgement. All we really know so far is what we knew before it all began: that Oakmont is hard, and that accurate drivers have a chance here, arguably more than they have had in any US Open since the last one at this course.
Much now will depend on the weather. There is a chance of rain every day from here, but not a guarantee of it. Without rain, Oakmont can be as difficult as the USGA want it to be, and an over-par winning score would feel perfectly plausible. Should significant rain fall, enough of an edge will be taken from this course to push us back towards the four-under total which got the job done in 2016.
Of my selections, two were excellent, two were not. Unfortunately, one of those who was largely excellent, Ludvig Aberg, let a very good score get away from him and will have work to do. Jon Rahm's should've been better as he missed a couple of very short putts, but one-under was very much job done in the evening and if he continues to hit the ball as he did in round one, he won't be far away.
The trouble is what happens if and when he doesn't and it does feel to me like there's more random in this course than I allowed for. That's why I'm not rushing to add Brooks Koepka, into 12/1 after a two-under 68, after which he spoke and looked like the version of Koepka who won two of these. I find it hard to believe he's so far behind Scottie Scheffler in the betting, but Rahm looks the right favourite and we'll stick for now.
This is a comfortable grouping for BEN GRIFFIN and Andrew Novak, winners of the Zurich Classic pairs event, but it's Griffin who has kicked on from that and he can win this three-ball of potential Ryder Cup candidates again.
Griffin produced his now typical through-the-bag performance in round one, perhaps not quite as strong off the tee as he has been but excellent in all other areas. His precision approach play and tidy short-game are weapons he can use in this US Open and he has added distance lately, too.
Novak and McNealy were both seven shots worse than their in-form playing partner and this is simply one of those occasions where I'm surprised the blend of recent play and those first 18 holes haven't had much of an effect on the market, where Griffin can still be backed at a generous 6/4. He merits shorter odds.
I wouldn't usually be in a rush to take on a player of Rory McIlroy's brilliance nor even 2016 contender Shane Lowry, but JUSTIN ROSE looks value against them at around the 3/1 mark.
Rose shot 77 on a miserable day for this group but his long-game was good. In fact, he gained strokes in all departments bar putting, where he ranked stone last of 156 players, so there really was only one issue.
Hopefully he can put that right in round two and while McIlroy's driving numbers were eye-catching, the rest of his game was decidedly poor. Given what he's said about dedication lately, I wonder how interested he is in a near six-hour battle to scrape a weekend tee-time.
Lowry lost his cool more than once on Thursday and was as bad as Rose with the putter. His poor year in the majors is almost certain to be extended by another missed cut and with his suspect close-range putting put firmly in the spotlight here, he could get in his own way.
Back to the point made earlier about the sense of the unknown here, I doubt I'll be getting stuck into anyone in match bets this week. I'd much rather have a small go on a double like this at 9/1 and what will be will be. Respect for Oakmont is paramount, whether you're playing or watching.
Posted at 0730 BST on 13/06/25
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