Saturday's third round at the US Open was in many ways exactly what we all expected. The Country Club, helped by a stiff breeze from the first tee-time until the last putt, became a fearsome and unrelenting examination – any loss of focus or control and a big number was the price. Come the end of the day scoring had leapt up over a stroke and a half from Friday, and that's despite the field now featuring only those who'd played well to that point.

In other ways, it wasn't. Few if any would've expected the mistakes we saw from Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, just as they had respectively appeared set to take command. There were reasons to worry about Collin Morikawa, but a seven-over 77 despite a solid start was nevertheless shocking. With Rory McIlroy fighting for dear life, the prospect of one of these four winning has gone from 1/2 to something like 6/4; odds-on to odds-against.

From my perspective, Rahm's six at the final hole was a disappointing way to end the day. Having sided with him at 16/1 prior to the tournament this outcome would've been gratefully received at the time of publication, but with eight realistic winners including some of the world's best players, that double-bogey exposed the fragility of backing anyone win-only.

Nevertheless, I've felt all week that he's looked the man to beat and whoever does might well win the US Open. Rahm was for the most part excellent in round three, what we saw of him at least, and had his drive up the 18th hole been a yard to the right I would be writing about how high he sets the bar. More to the point, I'd likely have been advising we have a couple of savers on Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick, but those two are now ahead of the Spaniard in the market.

This is a familiar position for both men, and a familiar question for us to ponder: is it right that Fitzpatrick is ever so slightly shorter than Zalatoris in the revised betting?

At the US PGA Championship, it made no sense to me. They went into the final round on the same score. Zalatoris had been shorter odds pre-tournament. Fitzpatrick was the one who had to deal with playing in the final group. Zalatoris was the one who had already felt what it's like to play the back-nine of a major championship with a chance to win. The American ought to have been shorter and, in the end, events reflected that.

Here, I'm less sure. Splitting them isn't easy and the current gap (4.3 to 5.0) on the exchanges might be a bit too wide, but at 100/30 and 7/2 respectively and with those advantages Zalatoris had at the PGA no longer in play, I'm happy to suggest MATT FITZPATRICK as the bet for those who already have Rahm on-side.

Fitzpatrick of course won the US Amateur here at Brookline and there's just a sense that he's far more at ease than was the case at Southern Hills. That's perfectly normal, given that he'd never been in that situation before, and so often we talk about major champions having learned – often very quickly – from such an experience.

"I think up until Southern Hills really, I didn't really appreciate how hard it is actually to win a major," he admitted on Saturday night. "Yeah, I've not challenged really up until then. I think, myself included, and people on the outside maybe think it's easier than it is.

"You just have to look at Tiger. He knocked off so many in such a quick span. That's why I think people think, oh, it's a piece of cake; it's like a regular Tour event. But it's not.

"It brings a lot more to the mental aspect of the game than other regular events, and for me I think it's been a big change from US PGA to come here to a golf course I know so well, and it's given me extra confidence."

Fitzpatrick had already been asked about the support he'd received, whether it related to what he achieved here in 2013, and whether he genuinely believed an amateur tournament nine years ago really could be the difference when it comes to winning not just his first major, but first title on US soil.

"I certainly think it gives me an edge over the others, yeah," he said. "I genuinely do believe that. It's a real, obviously, positive moment in my career. It kind of kickstarted me. To come back here and play so well again, it kind of just gives me growing confidence round by round."

All of this feels significant to me, as does the fact he has friends and family with him and is even staying with the same family who looked after him when he won the US Amateur. Just as Keegan Bradley had this tournament circled in the calendar for many years and is delivering now it's here, so has Fitzpatrick managed to do that, and to some extent it's because of things off the course as well as on it.

When it comes to the golf, we've all seen how well he's driven the ball throughout the week, with only Rahm and Gary Woodland ahead of him in the strokes-gained stats. His approach play has been solid, his work around the green has been spectacular, and of those in the mix he's the one who has relied least on his putter. All things being equal, he is the best putter on this leaderboard, so there's plenty of headroom.

On balance then, under these specific circumstances I believe he's the one to beat, though I must stress that Sunday bets are influenced by those placed before the tournament. If you don't already have a position then things are more complicated, and bets like Fitzpatrick and Rahm in the dual forecast market (17/2) with a saver on Fitzpatrick and Zalatoris (15/2) would have to be considered.