Viktor Hovland marked himself down as the Prince of (Seashore) Paspalum with victory at last year's Mayakoba Golf Classic, since renamed the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, as he holed a clutch putt at the final hole to beat Aaron Wise in a renewal which bucked the trends.
Hovland, who had captured his first PGA Tour title pre-pandemic in Puerto Rico, was 23 at the time, just the third 20-something winner of an event in its 14th year — there have been three 40-something winners since Fred Funk won the inaugural edition aged 50. Hovland was also seven strokes behind at halfway, a gap which had never previously been overcome. Every so often a rule-breaker appears or, in this case, a class full of the rascals.
El Camaleon is a short par 70 situated not far south of Cancun at Playa del Carmen. Mangrove forests guard fairways made artificially wider by typically soft, tropical conditions which extend through those Seashore Paspalum greens, themselves slow and receptive. Unless the wind blows, those who avoid costly mistakes off the tee can go to work with their shorter clubs and threaten to break 60.
Courses like this one, a comment which extends 12 hours west to Waialae, home of the Sony Open, plus to those which host the RBC Heritage, RSM Classic and Bermuda Championship, often lend themselves to experience, to accuracy, to the skills some will tell you are getting lost in a sport which saw the powerful Lucas Herbert defy similar trends last week.
Varner has done that twice before at El Camaleon, finishing fifth on debut and sixth in 2018. On the first occasion he was an out of form PGA Tour rookie who had just about scraped together enough points for a card; on the second he was in good nick, but nevertheless ranked 164th in the world.
Last year he'd missed the cut in the RSM Classic and in 2018 he'd been off three weeks since playing in Japan, both times still ranked outside the top 100. Now, he returns to Mexico at 79th in the world, close to his career-high 73rd, and having been playing really good golf for quite a while — even if form figures of 11-12-16-11-32 in some way illustrate the Varner experience.
The Canadian doesn't have quite as robust a form book as Dahmen, who enhanced his profile with victory in the Dominican Republic back in the spring, but two finishes of 10th from his last three visits confirms he likes it down here in Mexico.
Hadwin is a short, generally straight hitter, very much in the Mayakoba mould, and as a member of the PGA Tour's 59 club is certainly best under low-scoring conditions. His sole victory came on a tree-lined course in Florida where power doesn't necessarily do the trick, and last year's missed cut here was his third in succession as his form dipped wherever he played.
Kirk has made all four cuts here and showed an immediate liking for El Camaleon when leading after round one on debut. Though yet to match that seven-under 63 in 15 subsequent rounds, he's done plenty to suggest that he can better seventh place back in 2016.
As well as a logical liking for a course which doesn't stretch his powderpuff driving, Kirk has an emotional attachment to the event as it was here that he made his comeback following time away to battle alcoholism. That was two years ago and, to his immense credit, Kirk has since reignited his career.
Second at the Sony Open was the pick of last season's efforts and that's not the first time he's gone close there, with his form in the RSM Classic, at Southwind, at Harbour Town and even in Malaysia correlating well with the Mayakoba. He's plainly comfortable by the coast and, when his putter is firing, loves a shootout.
Like Kirk, Duncan has made all four cuts here, his best a five-under 65, and his success has been built on his trademark accuracy. So reliable is he off the tee that Duncan gains strokes consistently despite an absence of power, and that's a nice platform at the right sort of course.
Duncan ended last season contending for the Wyndham Championship, where he shot a second-round 62 only to suffer a nightmare Sunday. After a month away he returned with a rusty 74 at the Fortinet Championship, but since then has carded rounds of 68, 68, 68, 69 and 66, generally looking like he's playing his best golf for some time.
Villegas started off with a six-over 77 but by Friday night was level par again thanks to a six-under 65, which he supplemented with weekend rounds of 69 and 68 to finish 34th. It was a mighty effort in the circumstances and came on the back of 35th place in the Shriners, where his iron play was sharp.
Now he comes to Mexico, where he once talked at length about how comfortable the Latino players are and how welcome they're made to feel. It's shown to some degree in his results, the Colombian having made five cuts in six, often been on the fringes of contention, and been second after the opening round in 2016.
We know thanks to victories in the Honda Classic and Wyndham Championship that these are the courses where he's most effective, and his best recent efforts have come in both the former event and the RSM Classic. Also a winner at East Lake, Villegas wants an old-school, ball-striking test, and we can only hope the odd wide off the tee comes at the right time and isn't too harshly punished.
With his 40th birthday on the horizon and having won the Mexican Open as a 20-year-old, there are a few sneaky pointers towards the chances of someone who shot 11-under for their final 54 holes in Bermuda, not far off the field-best 15-under from Scott Stallings. Villegas has a big week in him.
J.T. Poston is playing better than a run of missed cuts suggests and has several low rounds to his name here, as well as an impressive win in the low-scoring Wyndham Championship. Only his putter let him down last time, without question his strength, and if he can get everything married up then quotes of 200/1 might appear generous.
However I'll finish with HUDSON SWAFFORD, who continues to be underestimated despite plenty of good stuff from summer onward.
Swafford finished second in the Palmetto Championship on the eve of the US Open and found form again in time for the FedEx Cup Playoffs where, in world-class events won by Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay, he finished 11th and 17th. On the latter occasion he was right in the mix for most of the week and threatened to steal a late invite to the TOUR Championship.
That's form which is well ahead of almost everyone at similar odds and a good few at far shorter, and we're talking about a two-time PGA Tour winner whose three professional victories — those two plus the Stadion Classic — all tie in nicely. Todd won the Stadion and this, McDowell has won the Corales Puntacana where Brice Garnett and Dahmen have helped advertise links to the Mayakoba, while Adam Long, Si-Woo Kim, Gay, Mark Wilson, Pat Perez and Charley Hoffman confirm that the Bob Hope Classic is worth a check, too.
Swafford's form to start the season doesn't leap off the page but he's improved with each start, going MC-MC-56-32, and he was fourth after round one in world-class company last time we saw him. That was at the CJ Cup where, just as he had been in the Wyndham (12th), Northern Trust (17th) and BMW Championship (sixth), he was still in the mix at halfway.
With his missed cut in the Sanderson Farms on the number, the message from me is that this talented player is in good form, and as a Sony Open specialist who has won on Seashore Paspalum, that puts him on the radar. The fact he's made five cuts in succession here and led after round one in 2014 adds to the case for another live outsider in an event where getting stuck into those at short odds makes little appeal.
Posted at 1020 GMT on 01/11/21
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