There was a lot of talk about Oakmont’s identity earlier this week but what about that of the US Open? The most difficult? This year, certainly. The most divisive? Always.
Nine years on from Dustin Johnson’s victory, it has thrown up a similar leaderboard only that little bit more extreme. There are more of the Scott Piercys and Andrew Landrys and, for the most part, the best players in the sport have either failed or been forced aside, depending on your point of view.
This is a safe space for us to be honest. Golf is and always will be predominantly about two things, skill and luck, and the balance here is shifted. What happens to bad shots and what happens after are more hostage to fortune than usual. That doesn’t mean skill has been removed altogether and it doesn’t cheapen the event unless you want it to. It’s simply true.
Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland have both holed out from off the green with shots that might’ve left them plenty to do had they not found the hole, Hovland more than once. JJ Spaun’s tournament began with a chip-in which simply might not have been possible had his ball come to rest in a different combination of blades of grass. For now it’s stuff like this which helps separate them.
Whereas we can all point to examples of players who haven’t had things go their way, including those like JON RAHM and Scottie Scheffler who have not always helped themselves. Rahm has putted hopelessly, worse than all bar two others who will make the cut, though he left the course on Friday fuming that what he felt were good putts didn't go in. Scheffler has had to give up a measure of control and fight hard to stay in touch.
That Scheffler is a single-figure price to pass 20-plus players and cover a seven-shot gap says so much about where we are with two rounds to go. He can win this. Rahm can win this. So can Adam Schenk. Or it could from here play out straightforwardly, with Burns facing his biggest challenge from Hovland. Reader, I don’t think I have any way of working it out.
But I do believe 2/1 that Rahm ends the week as the top LIV Golf player is worth a top-up, after recommending the same bet at 11/4 pre-tournament. He's two behind Brooks Koepka and one behind Tyrrell Hatton but remains a very worthy favourite, having been one of the very best ball-strikers in the field so far this week. I'm happy to go in again and let this week boil down to whether he can pass those two, which I think he will.
Back to the real quiz and there is one thing potentially in favour of Burns and Hovland, which is the heavy rain which fell overnight. Oakmont will be soft today and were I heading out in the final few groups, I think I would quite welcome that – particularly if I was a longer driver who perhaps isn’t as accurate as say Spaun.
Then again, there are other factors to consider. Will the softness of the greens enable an earlier starter to go really low and conjure a rerun of Shinnecock, where Saturday turned the tournament on its head? Will wet rough make fairways even more important and actually, somehow, make Oakmont even more difficult?
Will it rain again, and when? There’s certainly a good chance and if earlier starters do escape it, then we could be in for an interesting day where scoring varies significantly according to tee times which have not yet been determined. All this before we even contemplate the threat of thunderstorms and delays in play, which really would make this feel oh so very 2016.
Again I don’t know as I have the answers so for now it’s time to try and enter that state of contented fascination enjoyed by these neutrals I keep reading about. And to start thinking about who might win next week instead.
Posted at 0800 BST on 14/06/25
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