The DP World Tour began with chaos as players awoke last Friday to news of travel bans in response to the discovery by South African scientists of a new Covid variant. It became clear that UK players had to withdraw from the Joburg Open immediately if they wanted to make it home in time to avoid a long and expensive quarantine. Withdrawing was the easy part: caddies and players have since told stories of complicated journeys through various territories in attempts to beat Sunday's 4am deadline.
Others who stayed then began the third round of a tournament already shortened to 54 holes, only for that round to be abandoned and an official result declared at the 36-hole stage. For Thriston Lawrence, that was enough for a life-changing win; for DP World Tour membership this year and next, and a major debut in the Open Championship, all without having to answer the questions which would have been asked had even just one more round been possible.
Although there's no set formula — hence Nienaber being in the same preview as David Drysdale, who I'll come to later — we've seen many of the best drivers in Europe and beyond thrive here. Sun City was always Lee Westwood's patch, but Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Ernie Els and Robert Allenby are also past champions. Fleetwood led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee here in 2019.
Nienaber in fact didn't drive the ball as well as he can when 11th in last year's SA Open, instead relying on some of the best approach work of his burgeoning career. Combining the two, he hit the ball to an extremely high standard and just needed a little more help from the putter to challenge the places.
Van Tonder won for us in Kenya back in the spring, and the circumstances here are similar. One week before that victory, he'd driven the ball especially well but misfired in other departments and failed to make the weekend only narrowly. At Randpark, the same was true: in fact both his driving and approach play were of a very high standard.
De Jager is a five-time Sunshine Tour winner, including both in tough conditions and here albeit on the adjacent Lost City layout, which is also designed by Gary Player. His record on the signature course is equally strong, with second place in the Sun City Challenge one of three top-sixes which came before he took 14th behind Bezuidenhout last year, costing himself a top-10 finish with bogeys at the final two holes.
That was a big effort considering his opening 75 and De Jager's brace of 69s at the weekend made him the third best scorer in the field. He also ranked third in strokes-gained off-the-tee, 13th in approaches and 14th around the greens, but gave up too much ground with putter in hand. That's a club which at times during his career has been his biggest weapon.
De Jager's form coming in was poor, having finished 42nd and missed the cut in the two previous South African events. This time, he's followed 26th place in Mallorca with third in the South African PGA and then 32nd last week, scoring well on the par-fives and all thanks to similarly impressive long-game stats to those he produced in Spain.
A lofty 17th in strokes-gained off-the-tee on the European Tour last season, De Jager's iron play has really clicked lately and if that continues, he looks sure to go well. His chance has been strengthened by the misfortune of others and looks better than the odds.
Maas modelled his swing on Adam Scott and Tiger Woods, and among his long list of excellent amateur performances is second place here at Sun City earlier this year. He's won six titles in 2021 and was 12th when stepping up to the Sunshine Tour a month ago, just a couple of places behind last week's winner, Lawrence.
Burke meanwhile gained internet notoriety earlier in the year when he shot a 16-under round of 56. It's been a breakthrough season for the youngster, who won on the Big Easy Tour last week, as he'd done in June. While low-level stuff, those are wins in pro tour events and he was 15th, just behind Maas, on his Sunshine Tour debut.
He's not been in the best of form lately but ranked first in greens, 11th in approaches and 12th off-the-tee last week, and it's not long since he finished seventh behind Calum Hill, Alex Levy, Richard Bland, Rasmus Hojgaard, Callum Shinkwin and Sun City runner-up Jamie Donaldson at the London Club.
That's form which is a good way beyond the standard most of these have produced and he'd committed to staying in South Africa very quickly after the news broke last week. He doesn't have children which probably makes things a good deal less complicated and his decision to stay could well be rewarded with a handsome cheque.
Van Meijel won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2019 and has a top-10 in Johannesburg to his name. His relative ability looks a little bit stronger than odds around the 125/1 mark would suggest and any three-figure prices are worth taking.
Finally, there would be something cruel about it were DAVID DRYSDALE to win this week, having played in over 500 European Tour events without yet getting his hands on silverware.
That won't be lost on him but has little to do with the case, which is that he played well at Randpark and remains dangerous on a select group of courses, more so now we're down in grade. Sun City might not look like one of those based on the scorecard yardage, but the ball travels a long way here and accuracy has always counted for something at this penal golf course.
He missed the cut on the number here last year but he'd missed his previous three, too, so I'd be more inclined to focus on a previous top-10 finish at a course he first visited almost 20 years ago. If his approach play remains solid, as it was at Randpark, and his putter continues to behave, Drysdale can plot his way to a top-10 finish and perhaps even more than that.
Unlike many of the DP World Tour regulars who remain, the 46-year-old didn't have much to stress about last week as he and his wife had planned to stay with friends in South Africa until after Christmas anyway. The fact he played well in Joburg isn't a surprise either as he'd just breathed a huge sigh of relief having secured the last card via the Race to Dubai, and he should be totally at ease.
That counts for something and while home advantage is not insignificant in these South African events, there's no substitute for a touch of class. Drysdale has it versus those like Kruger who are priced similarly and need only take a small step forward from last week to threaten the places.
Posted at 0950 GMT on 30/11/21
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