With just three events to go in the 2021 European Tour schedule, one of which is closed to all bar the top 50 on the Race to Dubai, things are about to get serious. There's still no Qualifying School but come Sunday there will be 20 Challenge Tour players ready to accept cards, and while golf's major tours do their best to look after existing members, there are many here in Portugal who are playing for the right to compete at this level next year.
Some will tell you that too much fuss is made of these subplots; that the myriad categories and exemptions and invites and back-doors mean that status isn't everything. They're wrong. Having job security is the number one target for most professional golfers who are not at the very top of the sport. There's a trophy to be won here at Dom Pedro Victoria, not to mention a huge sum of money, but for many in the field such a target is secondary.
Justin Walters is perhaps the poster boy for what it all means. In 2013, soon after the death of his mother, Walters finished second to hold onto his playing rights. Most weeks, losing by a single stroke hurts, but not this time: his tears were of pride, joy, sadness, relief and whatever else, but nothing to do with not winning. Six years later and on the same 18th green, Walters repeated the feat.
It's been two years since Horsfield played here, and he's since won twice on the European Tour. Indeed when 59th on his debut in the event the Anglo-Floridian was ranked 1939th in the world; his form was patchy at best a year later, and unspectacular on his latest appearance. To my eye they really don't tell us much, especially as even in 2019 he was so utterly dependent on his putter.
Now, Horsfield is a quality iron player, the best in this field according to this season's stats. That's translated to first in birdie average, and these two categories, combined with a bit of power, look perfect for Vilamoura. We are still talking about a player who needs certain conditions to really thrive, and the headline selection should have no excuses at a course like this one.
Like Herbert, who finished runner-up here in 2018, MacIntyre has some correlating form in Dubai and he looks made for this test, one which should free him up to play aggressively at last. It's hard to overstate the pressure he put himself under in August and September and playing the BMW PGA Championship followed by the Dunhill Links at St Andrews extended that through to October, before he took in the intense challenge of Valderrama and finished down the field.
Making the weekend there might allow him to draw a line under things and refreshed for the final few events, his place in the DP World Tour Championship already assured, he reminds me a bit of Rory McIlroy over on the PGA Tour, who won a low-scoring event after letting it all go at the Ryder Cup.
MacIntyre, who at 61st in the world could secure starts in everything next year with a big week, won at this time in 2020, and it coincided with a gear shift in terms of difficulty and pressure. Before going 3-1 across a dream fortnight in Cyprus, he'd withdrawn from the Scottish Championship and finished 58th at Wentworth, managing just one top-20 finish in eight starts following his return to action.
One year on, I wouldn't be at all surprised if something similar happened and he's one to watch very closely over the next three weeks. It may take nothing more than an gentler introduction and shifting of the emphasis to unleash the talent we all know he has, and at 33/1 he's further down the market than is usually the case. He was only a shade bigger at Wentworth where Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton headed the betting.
Last year's renewal couldn't have gone better thanks to GEORGE COETZEE and Canter, selected at 18/1 and 70/1 respectively and filling the first two positions as Tommy Fleetwood's world-class ball-striking was undermined by a bad week on the greens.
As mentioned, Canter has stacks in his favour as he looks to gain a deserved breakthrough, but the contrast between his odds and those of Coetzee is quite remarkable, the South African surely having been underestimated.
The reason he went off second-favourite to Fleetwood was not only that he'd won back home a week earlier, but that he adores it here. Coetzee's worst finish in eight starts is 31st, he averages 67.87 which translates to around 12-under per tournament over a period of 10 years, and he also thrives at Doha which is arguably the best form guide.
Hopefully we get something more in line with Coetzee's 16-under, the 2020 renewal having been one of the hardest so far despite yielding a round of 61 on Thursday. Come the end of the week, anyone reaching 10-under bagged the place money and that sort of test would bring Langasque firmly into the equation.
It should be clear to anyone following the European Tour that he's turned a corner recently, first starting well in the Dutch Open, Dunhill Links and Open de Espana, extending that to the halfway lead in the Andalucia Masters, and offering more signs of encouragement with bookend 67s in Mallorca.
Strokes-gained data from the latter event comes with an asterisk as there were no volunteers on the ground and caddies were instead required to provide distances, which tends to exaggerate things at both ends of the spectrum. However, we can be confident that Langasque produced another strong tee-to-green display, and he led the field in the old-fashioned and in this case reliable metric that is ball-striking.
Like MacIntyre, Shinkwin can soon toast the one-year anniversary of a Cyprus win, having taken the first event at Aphrodite Hills. In doing so the Englishman showed that he can compete when scoring is low and he did so on a similar par 71, one which might tie in quite nicely with Dom Pedro if we ever get to see it again.
I'm not really mad on biorhythms myself and the case here is more about one of the best drivers on the circuit, who has been playing well for a while, and need only find a similar upturn on the greens to that which powered his breakthrough.
Olesen's career has clearly derailed since his arrest in 2019 and who knows what will come of that case if the trial goes ahead in December, having been delayed more than once. Clearly it's possible that only once behind him can he really get back on track, and he isn't one for maximum faith.
However, 20th at Valderrama last time was an eye-catching performance, holes seven and nine costing him a crack at Matt Fitzpatrick (seven-under for the other 66 holes; Fitzpatrick won in six-under). Crucially, Olesen produced his best strokes-gained approach figure since his European Tour suspension was lifted and he made 16 birdies at one of the toughest courses on the circuit.
A five-time winner at this level, Olesen has always been better served by low-scoring conditions and while yet to put it all together here, he's made all seven cuts since narrowly missing out on debut a decade ago, shooting rounds of 64 and 66 in the process.
Last September he was fifth after round one and Dom Pedro is a course which allows him to get away with the odd errant drive, which he's always had in his locker. It's similar in many respects to Doha, where he's been second and third, and the Portugal Masters title is one Olesen is capable of contending for.
Despite being 141st in the Race to Dubai, Olesen is exempt through the 2022 season regardless, but he's a class act who can do damage here if kicking on following one of his most encouraging performances of the year.
Posted at 1740 GMT on 01/11/21
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