Officially, Jon Rahm is a seven-time European Tour winner who is about to play in his 53rd European Tour event. By any standard that's a phenomenal start to a career still in its relative infancy, one which has scaled new heights since last he played in the Open de Espana. Rahm won his home championship in 2018 and 2019, by two and five shots respectively, and returns in search of a hat-trick as both a major champion and the sport's top-ranked player.
Unofficially, we really need to filter those statistics to do justice to the way in which this Basque beast has dominated when he's come over from the PGA Tour. Better would be to strip away the majors and WGCs — how he has played against the best golfers in the world, on the other side of the world, isn't relevant — and doing so leaves us with something quite astonishing. Rahm has played in just 16 regular European Tour events, and he has won six of them. That's not a strike-rate you're supposed to see in this sport.
The first of his victories in Spain came at a course he knew extremely well. The second came here, at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, which he says he doesn't. Yet despite a relatively sluggish start in a marquee Spanish three-ball, Rahm kept tabs on the leaders and then took control of the tournament with a back-nine 28 on Saturday, which he followed by a front-nine 32 on Sunday. Those sixty blows came courtesy of a gear nobody else in the field had — not even Sergio Garcia.
Kawamura takes a while to warm to given his unorthodox swing but he's become one of the better maidens on the European Tour, his game underpinned by strong driving. While the strokes-gained stats we have from 2019 are not reliable, they are likely close enough to offer a decent indication and it wouldn't surprise anyone to learn that Rahm led the field.
Kawamura is capable of something close to that standard and his missed cut in the Dunhill Links just isn't a concern at all. Not only had he also missed the cut in that event two years ago, but his links record so far amounts to nothing, and he appears to be far better suited to this type of golf course.
Before Scotland, his form read 5-3-16-55-21-5-17 and besides, he was par or better for 47 of the 54 holes and coped perfectly well with Carnoustie. One or two mistakes on a links course in no way undermine his prospects here, and at 11th in strokes-gained off the tee in 2021 he is one of the most reliable drivers of a ball in the field.
At 50/1 he rates the best bet but similar prices about ADRI ARNAUS are also worth taking.
This talented youngster has been a little frustrating in what's his third year on the European Tour, and it's largely because his obvious strength has at times been a major weakness. Back in 2019 he was the fourth-best driver on the circuit, yet now he ranks 113th of 181 players.
To fulfil his potential he'll need to arrest the slide and I expect he'll do so, but in the here and now we do have to accept that risk: that as has so often been the case of late, one or two foul balls off the tee will undermine a lot of good work, and negate the big improvements he's made with the putter.
Meronk actually went back home to win the Polish PGA Championship between the two and it's only a month since he finished runner-up in Italy, where his long driving and quality approach play were huge assets on a big, modern course which will host the 2023 Ryder Cup.
Club de Campo provides a very different aesthetic but it might be best attacked in a similar way and when he has conditions in his favour, this talented youngster makes it pay. He's managed four top-10 finishes over the last 12 months, and on each occasion has finished tied for third or better.
He's gone close in Spain at a lower level in the past and simply looks overpriced here, as one of the best drivers in the field (sixth this season), who is 10th among them in strokes-gained total, and could well be up to the task of racking up those cheap birdies and eagles we'll need.
This Thai youngster is far from consistent but that's not necessarily a bad thing when betting on golf, and it's not difficult to forgive him Friday's shocker at Carnoustie. Either side of that ugly 83, Jazz shot 66 and 69 to suggest the game which took him to a top-10 finish in the KLM Open remains in good enough shape.
That performance in the Netherlands saw him rank sixth in strokes-gained approach and it was just a narrow missed cut at Wentworth beforehand, while throughout the season we've seen him demonstrate the improved driving which has been in evidence since he started working with Pete Cowen a couple of years ago.
It may be that this tree-lined, undulating course, one you might say wouldn't be out of place on the Asian Tour he dominated in 2019, brings out the best in Jazz on what's his first start in Spain since he eagled the final hole at Qualifying School to earn his European Tour card.
Certainly, second place in Kenya, third in Malaysia and at Galgorm Castle plus fourth at Fanling in the Hong Kong Open are encouraging form lines with this particular test in mind, and he's up to hitting the frame at a price.
Posted at 1900 BST on 04/10/21
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