In last year's preview of the Indoor Golf Group Challenge, I wrote about how a popular (and excellent) golf database has a rare blindspot which would give us a potential edge over the bookmaker. Twelve months on, that blindspot remains, and it's a question of whether you believe it could again lead to something come Sunday.
Form for this week's event is correctly attributed from last year's, but those that the Nordic Golf League played here have been mislabelled. Essentially, the ones which took place at Vesterby Links, this week's course, are missing. Showing where they should be are a string of form figures from an adjacent course, the Classic.
While we didn't land the winner, three of the eventual top six in the 2023 Indoor Golf Group Challenge, all at big prices, had far better course form than you might have thought. Jeppe Kristian Andersen was listed as a debutant but had been runner-up. Charlie Lindh's MC-MC-MC including a round of 83 would've put anyone off, but it should've read MC-MC-5-20, a run he improved further by finishing fourth.
Jesper Sandborg is one option for those keen to take advantage as not only has he won at Vesterby Links, but he did so as recently as June and by a convincing three shots. It's his home course, too, a fact Sky Bet seem aware of given that they chalked him up considerably shorter than bet365, who have since revised their estimate.
Sandborg has now won twice this year and is in much better form than at any stage previously, so while he's a 31-year-old who hasn't yet been a factor on the Challenge Tour, he's got a couple of things in his favour for this latest try and was a big price initially with that course knowledge overlooked.
At what's now a much bigger one, TOBIAS EDEN makes more appeal.
He had a rotten time of things in 2023, when a DP World Tour Q-School graduate so clearly out of his depth. Still, Eden was a decent enough amateur for a time and it's a bit early to be writing him off altogether.
Now trying to make the most of what have been limited Challenge Tour opportunities, he was right in the mix after an opening 66 in Finland last week and backers would've still held onto hopes of a return entering the final round, where he faded slightly.
We can forgive him that given the circumstances (he missed every cut in 2023 and his confidence must've been shot) and four cuts made in six Challenge Tour starts is a decent level of form. As well as that, from just five previous goes at this level, he contended on home soil here in Sweden in the Dormy Open, so there are plenty of signs that he really is good enough.
No doubt an underachiever considering his exploits at Arizona State and generally tall reputation, Lemke turned 40 in April and I'm interested to see whether he can properly reignite the flame after a decent few seasons on the DP World Tour rather petered out last year.
At his best, he played plenty of good golf on largely exposed courses such as Education City, Doha, Santa Ponsa, Dom Pedro and Hillside so while we've no record of any kind at Vesterby Links, I'd be hopeful that it's suitable.
Magnus was 25th at Saadiyat on debut and confirmed his liking for it when ninth earlier this year, while in-between these two efforts he also made his Vesterby debut and finished a very respectable 23rd.
The obvious issue is a run of missed cuts but not all are equal, and his run of near-misses is striking: by one after a bad finish in France, by two after an even worse finish in Northern Ireland, by one again in Ireland, and by one again in Finland where he made just a solitary bogey in 36 holes.
Before this sequence he'd been 29th in France, 13th in Denmark and played OK in Spain following that standout top-10 at Saadiyat, so while it'll have been enormously frustrating over these past few weeks, from our perspective we're backing a player whose best golf is almost certainly closer than it appears at a glance.
I've mentioned far too many players already (always show your working out, they used to say, before people hated words) but what I must add is that this is about as weak a field as you'll find on the Challenge Tour, because a number of the leading players are taking part in the corresponding Danish Golf Championship on the DP World Tour.
Whether that translates to a classy winner like Levy or Pulkkanen, or opens things up for someone at a big price, time will tell, but at the odds I'm compelled to add BJORN AKESSON who sort of covers both descriptions.
I'd expected Akesson to be too short but he's 50/1 with Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power and that looks a bit of a gift. Last week he was shorter at 33/1 generally, shorter still with one firm who put him among the favourites, and he played plenty of good golf only to pay the price for two bad holes to begin his second round.
We were on in better company three starts back at 66-80/1 and while he missed the cut, he was fifth the following week to demonstrate that his game is in generally good shape, as it has been since he won for us in South Africa at the start of the season.
It's been a tough five years for the former BMW PGA champion but since getting four rounds under his belt at Saadiyat he's made seven cuts in eight starts, which represents genuine progress. The exception was in Denmark where he wasn't far away at all.
He's started to take the next steps forward in the subsequent weeks and among his last three Challenge Tour starts, he's been 22nd and 24th in stronger fields, the latter in the Scottish Challenge. The first three home in that event are playing the DP World Tour this week; last week, two of them contended at that level.
Wood also featured in Open qualifying at his home course, where he was sailing along until one loose drive resulted in a lost ball. He was grouped with his friend Justin Rose that day, Rose of course having subsequently qualified and gone on to almost win the thing at Troon.
Here's what Rose had to say about Wood's progress.
"My dream scenario would have been both of us qualifying today," he told Mirror Sport. "Chris has been through a lot in the past five years and it probably feels longer for him. But I saw good signs from him in his game today.
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