Whichever way you dress it, Jon Rahm's withdrawal from the DP World Tour Championship robs the event of a player who really ought to be there. That isn't to criticise the Spaniard, still no doubt adjusting to fatherhood at the end of a whirlwind year which saw him become a major winner, and then prove unable to carry his side to victory in the Ryder Cup. Week after week he's been involved in the story of 2021 in men's golf.
But Rahm is Europe's best player, and he's passed up the opportunity to win the Race to Dubai for a second time. He is a student of the sport's history, a brilliant ambassador for golf in Spain, and has spoken of his desire to emulate Seve Ballesteros in whichever ways he can. If the European Tour cannot attract him to an event which would've allowed him to close in on his idol, who won the money list three times, there's a problem.
Viktor Hovland is also out. Officially Europe's third-best player, unofficially its next big hope in terms of winning major championships, the Norwegian was willing to fly in from Georgia to take part in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, but not to come to the Middle East. Like Justin Rose, who has chosen the RSM Classic over this, Hovland will play the invitation-only Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas two weeks from now.
Fleetwood hasn't had the best of years by his own admission, largely because he's not been as reliable with driver in hand as had been the case previously. At Bay Hill in the spring he finished 10th while ranking 68th off the tee, giving winner Bryson DeChambeau fully 10 shots in that department and losing by seven.
When any player's main strength becomes a weakness alarm bells start to ring, but things have been looking up lately. Fleetwood drove it particularly well when seventh in the Dunhill Links, followed that up promisingly in two PGA Tour events, and was good again last week when finishing 13th in the AVIV Dubai Championship.
His iron play has also improved, these two departments generally linked where Fleetwood is concerned. His two best approach play performances of 2021 have come across his last three measured starts, and while there's no data for the ZOZO Championship, in securing his best PGA Tour finish of the year we can assume his long-game was good.
This long-game quality, which also sees him lead in strokes-gained approach, powered Wiesberger to a second win in Denmark, and ought to have seen him double up in Switzerland. Despite that blow he went on to make the Ryder Cup side and was far from the weakest link as Europe suffered a mighty thrashing.
Undoubtedly spurred on by that experience, he's finished 12th, 11th and second in three subsequent starts, despite putting poorly throughout all of them. Yes, he might've been flattered a little last week, the leaders clearly stalling under pressure, but Wiesberger was again exceptional in all departments bar putting.
He'll have to improve with the flat stick to win this better event, but a general toughening of conditions will help. He has a round of 65 here to his name, on the way to fourth place in 2016, and is at the top of his game right now. That was not the case last year and, like Fleetwood, there's no Race to Dubai pressure. Wiesberger has every chance.
Perez putted the lights out for eighth place in Portugal, then again closed with a round of 65 over on the Fire Course last week. Crucially, this time his long-game was the driving force as the Frenchman ranked first in driving accuracy, fourth in greens, 12th off the tee and 21st in approaches.
That's the game which for so long seemed likely to earn him a Ryder Cup debut and it's perhaps not a big surprise that, having been under such pressure for an extended period of time, he's now playing with greater freedom and getting back to where he ought to be.
We were on MacIntyre in this last year, odds of 25/1 reflecting better form and a weaker field. He was one of several who entered Sunday in the mix after a brilliant third-round 66, only to plummet from a shot behind to finish 23rd with a shocking and expensive 77.
That disappointment aside, the Scot did confirm that the Fire Course is a really good fit. He'd suggested as much in his rookie season with rounds of 68 and 69 over the weekend which were enough to earn him Rookie of the Year honours. That he started poorly can be put down to the fact he was paired with rival Kurt Kitayama and admitted he couldn't focus on his own game.
The American is an enormous talent whose ball-striking has powered five top-10 finishes this year, including when eighth last week. He ranked fifth off the tee and 10th with his approaches, but a shootout was always likely to leave him with too much to do as he again struggled on the greens.
That said, Crocker putted better than average on his previous two starts and has been much more solid of late, so we can cling to hope that he makes his share. Certainly, he has more wriggle room here, and the fact he finished 14th when statistically the worst putter in the field last December shows the damage he's capable of doing.
One year on, he's right up there with Wiesberger when it comes to strokes-gained ball-striking and his record here at Jumeriah Golf Estates reads a progressive 22-14-8. Breaking through in an event like this is difficult, but Crocker's long-game is good enough to take him far beyond the levels he's achieved so far and, in a small field, he looks worth the risk.
It's likely this tournament ends with an American flag at the top of the Race to Dubai. Perhaps Crocker can upstage Morikawa and Horschel in the event itself.
Posted at 1710 GMT on 15/11/21
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