It's 60 years since Baltimore welcomed the PGA Tour to town, and patience has been tested further by the tropical storm which caused The Northern Trust to run into Monday. It'll be forgotten about come Thursday but is unfortunate for organisers who've been made to wait for the biggest names to arrive, and the fact that Caves Valley Golf Club is new to almost everyone means few in the field will have prepared in the way they'd have liked.
Perhaps Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson, two of the handful of stars who missed the cut last week, will be advantaged by not having to wait a day for the final round at Liberty National. Johnson has also played the course, though if pressed he may pretend not to remember. It was back in 2007, when America dominated the Palmer Cup and Johnson more than played his part, and really doesn't help to unravel a tricky puzzle.
The course is a 7,542-yard par 72 designed by Tom Fazio, who is also responsible for Quail Hollow, Shadow Creek, Conway Farms, the Seaside Course at Sea Island, and a few courses which have hosted PGA and Korn Ferry Tour events. His design signature isn't easy to see, but a virtual walk around at least offers some hope that Quail Hollow form in particular might be a worthwhile guide.
One of the two longest hitters on the PGA Tour along with Cameron Champ, who is also worth a second glance, DeChambeau has done well when asked to get to grips with a new course, winning on his first look at Detroit and Winged Foot last year.
When reflecting on his US Open victory at the latter, he mentioned that for all his reputation for leaving no stone unturned, he actually arrived late and didn't do a great deal of preparation. There were no scouting missions, and instead he was interested in making sure his bag set-up was right for the conditions.
That ability to adjust quickly is a potential asset but it's his power which could be most significant. Back at the International Crown, an LPGA Tour team event played here in 2014, big-hitting Lexi Thompson said "it's definitely a longer course", while the 2017 Senior Players Championship went to Scott McCarron, who ranked second in driving distance for the week and was a seriously big-hitter in his pomp.
Low-scoring was on offer there, as it was in relative terms at the 2002 US Senior Open, and a bomb-and-gouge course is plainly the ideal for DeChambeau. As for his form, there was very little wrong with his long-game at Liberty National (third off the tee, 20th approach), a course which can be penal and probably isn't ideal for him, while before that he played in the final group at the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational where it was his short-game which let him down.
Two years ago, he followed an almost identical path to the BMW Championship, winning at Muirfield Village and later playing well at Liberty National without threatening the lead, and then went and pushed Justin Thomas the distance at Medinah. He'd previously been ninth at the aforementioned Conway Farms and was 12th at Olympia Fields, so he's produced wherever this event has gone save for a quiet week in a shootout at Aronimink, and he the biggest victory of his career came on his first competitive try at Sherwood.
Cantlay, whose driver is a real strength, looks sharp as he bids to confirm his place alongside his close friend likely partner Xander Schauffele at Whistling Straits, having seen several other wildcard hopefuls stake a claim over the last couple of weeks.
If this does prove to be a test of driving, he can feed off Schauffele's success and grab himself another piece of silverware before playing an important role for Steve Stricker.
What I am really drawn to though is the fact that he was down the field purely because of his short-game at Liberty National, where he seemingly relished a quiet final two rounds in the company of McIlroy. Casey hit the ball as well there as he has in all bar two of those top-10s so far this season and is worth marking up as a result.
Crucially, he's turned things around on the greens in a heartbeat many times over the last couple of years. He did so last September when nearly winning the PGA Championship having been 71st of 78 in putting at Southwind, and more recently went from a horror show at the Travelers to one of his best Open finishes and as recently as two starts ago was the best putter in the field.
His Valspar win in 2019 came after a missed cut at Sawgrass, where he lost almost five strokes on the greens in just two rounds, and just before that he'd putted well for third in Mexico having putted awfully but led the field from tee-to-green at Riviera.
Put another way, last week's display on and around the greens isn't much of a barometer when it comes to what's to come this week, and if he's anything like field average his long-game should take care of the rest.
Wise broke through at Trinity Forest in 2018, but a week earlier had been second at Quail Hollow, where he's since finished 18th and ninth. Later in the year he made a brilliant debut in the WGC at Firestone, a long, parkland course in Ohio, and he's since managed a top-10 finish at Muirfield Village.
Despite that win in Texas he may prefer this to be a little tougher than a shootout, especially if he does struggle again with the putter, but he's been pounding greens all year and is selected in the hope that these unfamiliar ones serve as something of a leveller. His best effort in 2021 came at PGA National, originally co-designed by Fazio, and he's a big talent worth chancing.
His win came at PGA National, and on all three visits to Quail Hollow he's been in the mix at some stage. Earlier this year he played in the final group having led through 54 holes and if form there does translate to this week, he has to be a player at a big price.
Mitchell has become known for his putting exploits on bermuda but he's translated it to bentgrass lately and arrives here both in form, and having achieved what he set out to at Liberty National.
Finally, HUDSON SWAFFORD stands out among the absolute rags given the way his long-game has fired over the last couple of weeks.
Strong driving has always powered his best form, which while up and down has yielded two PGA Tour wins, and he was the best in the field having barely missed a fairway and remained competitive from a length perspective last week.
Fourth and 11th for strokes-gained approach over his last two starts, the fact he's finished 37th and 11th reveals that he's putted poorly, but he's capable of better and one of those two wins came at a Fazio design in the Dominican Republic.
His best form has undeniably been at a lower level but he was just outside the places at The Northern Trust and in the mix at the Wyndham before that. Runner-up as recently as June and with a couple of marginal missed cuts since, odds of 300/1 are generous in a 69-man field and so many of the top players not quite firing right now.
Posted at 1700 BST on 24/08/21
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