If you read last week's preview of the Open de Espana, you hopefully got the message about Jon Rahm: I wasn't exactly confident of getting him beaten. As it happens the world number one produced a slightly odd performance, one which began so spectacularly as to see him trading odds-on before lunch on Thursday, then remain odds-on when as many as five behind on Friday, only to lose just about all chance after an abysmal start on Saturday. It was precisely at the point we all expected him to go and boss matters that Rahm's hat-trick bid unravelled.
There need not be any great inquest, except to say that Rahm has had by any measure a stressful if rewarding year and is probably ready for a significant break. On the course, he has been involved in some of the most dramatic moments in men's golf: first when told he was out of the Memorial Tournament, then when holing two spectacular birdie putts to win the US Open, and more recently dancing every dance in Ryder Cup defeat. Off it, he has become a father. If he lacked cutting edge last week, that's understandable.
It's to Rahm's immense credit he's here for a fortnight's golf in Spain when many in his position would choose to be elsewhere, and there will be no surprise whatsoever if he rebounds to land a popular win the Andalucia Masters. Perhaps it wouldn't entirely make up for a missed opportunity in his national open, but Valderrama is what you might call the spiritual home of Spanish golf, perhaps even the European Tour, and would significantly soften the blow at least. Sent off 9/4 in the Open de Espana, he looks set to start a 3/1 chance here.
Those odds reflect not only the way he performed in Madrid, but the simple fact that this uniquely claustrophobic course, complete with trees in the middle of fairways and greens the size of thimbles, can destroy anyone's chance very quickly. It's just not the sort of place where taking short prices comes easy, and even Sergio Garcia's love for it had to endure great frustration. Garcia played here 10 times before winning on attempts 11, 13 and 14, and it's easy to argue his more creative style better lends itself to navigating these cruel corridors.
Both men are accurate from the tee, tidy around the greens, prone perhaps to poor putting but capable of doing enough. For Schwab it's yet to translate to a European Tour victory, but if it does come then it will likely be on a course like this one.
Others are Crans, Fanling and Wentworth, where many a Valderrama form clue is buried. Crans champions Richie Ramsay and Thomas Bjorn both love it here, Alex Noren has won at two of those and been sixth here, even shock Switzerland winner Sebastian Soderberg played nicely on his Valderrama debut. So did David Lipsky and Jeff Lucquin, Brett Rumford and Bradley Dredge. The correlation is particularly strong.
Fanling is a tight, generally firm, old-fashioned golf course in Hong Kong and also throws up parallel leaderboards, and many of those who have played well in low-key events here and at Crans have also shown something at Wentworth. Valderrama is unique, but it is essentially a more dramatic cousin to these three courses.
He's missed the cut in all three events so far but only marginally in the Fortinet Championship, before two events which are not suitable — neither course properly rewards his accuracy, and his desert form amounts to little. It's a bit surprising he played Summerlin, except for the fact it was an opportunity he perhaps felt he couldn't turn down.
Beef shot to fame with victory here in 2016, boyishly revealing how he intended to celebrate, and has since underlined how well suited he is to Valderrama by making every cut in three subsequent appearances and twice finishing inside the top 25. It would be a clean sweep of high finishes had he not ranked 70th of 71 in putting on his latest visit, too.
Sixth place at Wentworth last month yet again confirmed that he's a horses-for-courses player, one whose quality tee-to-green game demands a proper test of accuracy. That's why he's also been third at Crans, where he was in the mix again in August, and why so much of his best form over the last five years has come on courses at least someway similar to this one.
Inside the top 30 for both accuracy and scrambling, he has the right game for Valderrama and his record here is almost blemish-free, with finishes of 38th, 12th and 17th to go with a solitary, one-shot missed cut.
Last year he ranked 12th in strokes-gained approach here, a category in which he also shone despite failing to make the weekend in 2019, and his iron play was seriously good over the weekend in Madrid. Otaegui led the field on Saturday, continued to fire his approaches close on Sunday, and ranked fourth for the week.
Granted, he's had two goes at Valderrama and is yet to really figure it out, but he was a European Tour rookie when missing the cut by a shot on debut, and last year putted hopelessly to finish down the field. Bjork ranked seventh in strokes-gained approach but failed to take advantage.
Still, he is generally a strong putter and his driving has tightened up considerably of late, enough to gain strokes in three of his last four starts having done so in three of his previous 20. Bjork is one of the shortest hitters around, but an upturn in his accuracy stats enabled him to stay competitive at Marco Simone, one of those new, modern, big courses I referenced earlier, as well as in Switzerland and Scotland.
That's a really encouraging sign and it therefore wasn't a surprise to read this Instagram post following the Dunhill Links, where he improved on a miserable record: "Super frustrating week. Actually played really well... but burned so many edges it felt unreal. On the positive the swing feels good and I played 4 days for the first time at Dunhill Links!"
No, on the face of it, Valderrama is not an ideal course for this monstrously long hitter with some of the fastest hands in the sport. And yet Quiros has figured things out with each and every visit, getting better here as his form elsewhere has tailed off. From 2008 to 2017 his standout effort in five tries was 34th, and he missed three cuts. Since then he's finished 16th, second, and 17th.
Had this all been the product of some hot putting weeks I'd perhaps have found it easy to dismiss, but the truth is he struck it exceptionally in 2019, ranking fourth off the tee and with his approaches, only to run into Bezuidenhout making everything. A year later, Quiros was more solid through the bag and ranked 10th from tee-to-green, putting modestly and therefore confined to 17th.
He did arrive in excellent form two years ago, less so 2020, but he's also shown real signs of life lately. His best result from January through to the start of July was 61st place in the Canary Islands, and that because he led the field in putting. Since then, he's managed finishes of 16th, 18th, 27th, 35th and 39th (along with the statutory shockers along the way) and two of these were in spite of the putter, with his approach play as good as it has been in years.
Last week Quiros ranked third in the field with his irons and was far from ragged with driver, but of the 80 players who made the weekend, he ranked 77th on the greens. That's not indicative of a major problem, though, more the volatility which has been a staple of his career. Quiros is in fact a statistically average putter, but his figures are built on extremes which can see him putt well one week and awfully the next.
I'll take that chance, as well as that he hits one too many a wayward tee-shot. As I wrote a couple of months ago, this former world number 21 has hinted that he could call it a day if things don't improve for a return to his old coach, but they have. Hopefully he'll reconsider because there's life in him yet and, having seen his friend win in Madrid last week, he's capable of following suit.
Posted at 1800 BST on 11/10/21
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