The men's major champions in 2021 provided a full house in betting regret bingo, for those who missed all four. First there was Hideki Matsuyama, who won the Masters at the precise point at which some of us had lost patience. Next came Phil Mickelson, tipped on these pages... to be the top former winner of the US PGA. Following him was the obvious one, Jon Rahm, and then a classic rope-a-dope from Collin Morikawa: awful in Scotland, Open champion in England.
This is all part of the deal. There are only four of them per year, and anyone backing one winner is beating the average. Imagine how players themselves must feel: the good ones play upwards of a hundred rounds in a season, but 16 of them are of significantly added importance. When they sign off at the Open in July, there are fully nine months to wait for the next opportunity to atone for those missed.
We're about midway through that major-less run and with golf taking a rare and brief pause, it's the only real opportunity to have a proper look at the Masters, the US PGA, the US Open, and the Open Championship, a sequence which starts as ever at Augusta and this year ends at St Andrews.
Yes, history suggests winning on debut at Augusta isn't likely, and his overall majors record so far amounts to little. However, the world number 12 is underrated across the board, and there are players alongside or in front of him who ought to be behind. Backing him 16/1 win-only to collect a major at any stage is a nice, straightforward way to get him on-side now.
Look, it's been a few weeks since the SA Open. If you thought I was going to cut to the chase, you must be new. Welcome: you have missed the glory days, but this is a feature all about the future so, for now, let's remain optimistic.
1pt e.w. Abraham Ancer at 80/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak at 125/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
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Ancer is small in stature and lacks the power of those he's trying to compete with towards the top of the game, which is probably why he's underestimated. The theory goes that power is a prerequisite at Augusta but it's not true to anything like the extent of a typical US Open, and Ancer showed as much when contending on his debut here in November 2020.
Yes, that leaderboard had something of the abnormal about it, with no patrons and a soft, autumnal setting making things far less fearsome than can be the case in spring. But the Mexican returned from that disappointing end (he fell from second to 13th on Sunday) to finish 22nd in April and bag some precious experience under firmer, tougher and essentially more typical conditions.
Two appearances still leaves him short in that department, but we can't have everything at this stage and he has the right fundamentals for the challenge. Indeed you could say he's a Matsuyama lite: quality approach work if not up there with the very elite; strong off the tee if lacking the power of some; even capable of being sharp around the greens, if not one of the best of all-time as Brad Faxon somehow labelled him during a commentary stint earlier in the year.
If Ancer does have a weakness it's those missing 20 yards off the tee and a short-game you'd have to describe as inconsistent, but he's firmly camped inside the world's top 20 now and, since last he played in a major, has won his first PGA Tour event. It came in an elite field under tricky enough conditions and on a course where many a Masters contender has thrived. Indeed, Matsuyama was among those beaten with a birdie at the first play-off hole.
1pt e.w. Matthew Wolff at 100/1 (888sport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Talor Gooch at 200/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
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Wolff endured a nightmare start to 2021, which culminated in him taking a break after a Masters disqualification was followed by an abysmal display alongside Morikawa in the Zurich Classic pairs event. All of this was particularly disappointing given that he'd finished second in Bryson DeChambeau's US Open and then second again on his next start late in 2020.
We've since learned that Wolff needed time away to deal with mental health issues, the life of a touring professional – even one of his class – not always as easy as it may seem from the outside. Thankfully, he was brave and mature enough to step away, and such is his talent that he was able to contend for the US Open straight out of the gate upon his return, ultimately finishing 15th at Torrey Pines.
Again, we're relying somewhat on strong end-of-year form carrying through, but Gooch's has substance. He is inside the top 10 in strokes-gained approach, showed what he can do against the elite when fifth in The PLAYERS, and his record both there and in California (third Torrey Pines, fourth PGA West, 10th, 12th and 20th Riviera) suggests he could well make a strong start to the year and cement his position on the fringes of the elite.
Looking through the list of qualifiers, there are hardly any priced this big. Kevin Streelman, winless since 2014, is a 150/1 chance and Henrik Stenson is around the same price. This time last year Harris English had a very similar profile only without the win, and was considerably shorter. Gooch is a bet at 150 and up.
Burns' rise over the last nine months has been impressive but not unexpected and, crucially, it's no flash in the pan. Here we have a one-time amateur stud who was always meant to be special, but whose long driving and excellent putting were undermined by shoddy approach play. Then came a surge from 138th in the 2020 strokes-gained approach rankings to 30th last season, and he's fourth so far this.
Turning a weakness into a strength is always going to make a huge difference, but more so when it's arguably the most important aspect of the game. Burns is close to the complete player now, a place in the world's top 10 just one good week in the Tournament of Champions away. The only thing he's yet to do is stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the game's elite and beat them, but his game is good enough for that to appear close to a formality. He's won twice, it could've been more, and the best is yet to come.
There's not a great deal more to say, except that we shouldn't assume he won't be able to cope with an Open Championship. Burns at least made the cut on his debut in the event back in July, and one week earlier took 18th place in the Scottish Open at The Renaissance, despite a slow start. He's won on a tough course in Florida, where contending for the Honda Classic also reads well, and in general Americans are better at this than we give them credit for.
St Andrews can be vulnerable to longer hitters and is probably less subtle a test than purists would like these days, and above all else the 12th-ranked golfer in the world simply can't be 90/1, with some of the smaller firms even offering three-figures. My suggestion is that Burns ought to be absolutely no bigger than 40/1 for the US Open and US PGA, and perhaps just a shade bigger for both the Masters and the Open, where experience is that bit more valuable unless you happen to be Zalatoris or indeed Morikawa.
Scheffler could well win before July and, combined with eighth place in Kent, he'd become a very popular candidate to add to the Open's Texas connections, which cover Spieth, Johnson, Justin Leonard and even the likes of Dylan Frittelli and Austin Connelly, who have gone well at massive prices recently. Scheffler is on the list for this and the Masters having already impressed in majors before that scintillating Ryder Cup debut, but this time last year you could take three-figure prices for the Open, and 50s isn't quite big enough to tempt me in. Burns is the better bet.
Finally, a word on some non-qualifiers, which would've been more substantial and potentially included recommended bets but for the fact most firms now settle anyone who doesn't play as a loser (Sky Bet and BoyleSports refund bets, as I believe do Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook).
It's not totally unreasonable to settle all in run or not, but choosing to do so should at least ensure they price up qualifiers and those specifically requested, rather than what can appear a random set of non-qualifiers.
I had been keen to put up Rickie Fowler at 66/1, knowing that to qualify for the Open he'd have to either return to the world's top 50 or play well at the right time in a Qualifying Series event. Under either scenario he would likely have arrived at St Andrews, where he's caught the eye on both visits, as a live one.
Fowler was no bigger than 80/1 this summer and to play in the 2022 Open, his game will have had to improve considerably since then. Unfortunately, those offering 66/1 will keep the money if he doesn't qualify, and I can leave 50/1 alone.
Russell Henley is closer to securing a place in the field and played really well after a slow start here in 2015. Good in the wind and a contender by the coast at Torrey Pines last summer, if you are prepared to risk him failing to qualify then the 200/1 offered in a place could look good business. He's a rock-solid world number 57 at the time of writing and will likely make it.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 22/12/21
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