At around 3pm on Friday, everything looked good for a fascinating Open Championship, particularly for those in the clubhouse like Brian Harman at eight-under, or those closest to him at five-under, like Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton. Even Rory McIlroy, three-under after another battling round, would surely have felt pleased to exit just as the heavens began to open.
By the time Scottie Scheffler had poured in birdie putts at the 16th and 17th holes some five hours later, all that had changed. Now, for the first time in his Open career, he is in the lead. The world number one is just 8/13 to win the Claret Jug and move within one of a career grand slam to match McIlroy's.
With Harman a former winner and just two behind, Matt Fitzpatrick in possession of the one major Scheffler may still be left looking for just one behind, suddenly those at five-under look in need of a miracle, never mind those further back. And they do not have the potential trump card of significantly earlier tee-times, which would raise the prospect of Scheffler being caught in weather they were able to avoid.
The Open has been won in runaway fashion three times in the last 15 years, but I don't recall ever seeing the betting this lopsided at halfway. There are only three players whose odds are shorter than 25/1. According to the market, Scheffler will win, and if he doesn't then it'll be Fitzpatrick or Harman. Haotong Li, tied with the latter, can still be backed at big prices despite his lofty position.
Those looking for reasons to believe this will turn into anything but a Scheffler-led procession can cling to his driving statistics and the fact that he's ridden an extremely hot putter, just days after that club cost him in the Scottish Open. If that rings a bell it might be that you're thinking of Collin Morikawa four years ago, who did the very same thing. Scheffler is a better player in a better position. It's hard to believe he won't win.
There is a bit more rain due to fall but not much, which is also true of Sunday's forecast, while there's no more wind that we've had already. Chaos can ensue in an Open when the weather gets involved and nobody is immune to that, but what lies ahead looks excellent news if you took the Monday 6/1 about Scheffler winning. What a price that now looks.
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