There's built-in contrast to this part of the PGA Tour season, as we swap west coast for east, but rarely is it so stark. Last week we had the strongest edition of the Genesis Invitational in memory: the world's top 10 took part, several of them having played in that thrilling Phoenix Open a week earlier. This week, every one of them takes a breather, as the Florida swing begins on something of a low-key note.
For some that will be evidence in the case for a Tour with problems but for me, it's a significant part of the appeal. Here, at PGA National, the list of potential winners is surely longer than was the case at Riviera, and we don't have to weigh the various pros and cons of elite players all capable of winning on any given week. The fact that every single Korn Ferry Tour graduate gets a welcome start is no less significant a positive.
All this might not be what sponsors are looking for, but punters ought to embrace variety and that's exactly what we have at this Jack Nicklaus-designed course, where a big part of the challenge is to keep it out of the water – another contrast from Riviera, which has none of it. Ultimately, PGA National and its infamous Bear Trap almost guarantee drama whoever shows up, unless someone does as Matt Jones did and runs away with it.
The market shapes selections though and I keep coming back to SUNGJAE IM, who could easily have been chalked up shorter for this and looks to me like he could take some beating.
Im won this title in 2020, holding off Fleetwood and a charging Mackenzie Hughes, and made a solid defence when eighth last year despite his approach play badly misfiring. Since then, he's doubled his PGA Tour tally with an impressive victory in the Shriners, and after a bright start to the current campaign he looks one to keep close during the next month or so.
Fundamentally, Im has so far been more effective both on bermuda grass and on this style of golf course than the likes of Torrey Pines and Riviera, where he nevertheless finished sixth and 33rd respectively on this lighter-than-usual schedule he's adopted. All told he's made 11 starts in Florida so far and as well as winning here, he's been third twice in the Arnold Palmer, fourth in the Valspar, and a solid 17th at Sawgrass. Nine of the 11 have been top-30s, something he's achieved just six times in 17 tries in California.
It's true that Noren does appear to really like Riviera, where his left-to-right shot shape is a big asset, but it was nevertheless highly encouraging to see him produce his best strokes-gained approach stats since the same tournament a year ago.
Getting his irons firing is key to Noren contending as he won't win a tournament with driver, but can usually be relied upon to produce the goods in the short-game department. Golf being golf, however, that big improvement with his approaches was undermined by what he did on the greens, going from the single best putter in Phoenix to among the worst in LA.
The left-hander holds a share of the course record having shot an incredible 61 on his debut here 10 years ago, and while yet to crack the top 10 he missed out only by a shot after a final-round 64 in 2015. All told he's made six cuts in nine and done everything to suggest it's a good place for him, except for connecting four rounds together.
This might be the week he does it, because Harman's approach play was excellent when third in The American Express, and very good again in Phoenix, where he endured a poor putting week but still managed 14th in a field which was significantly stronger than this one. If he repeats either of these two performances, he's entitled to be bang there.
A Georgia Bulldog, Harman's putting stats on bermuda show improvement from the bentgrass and poa annua surfaces of the last few weeks and he's definitely entitled to an upgrade for a return to the east coast, while the fact his major record shows second place in a US Open plus top-20s in each of the other three just last year alone is another positive.
Harman has been a little frustrating to follow but his tee-to-green performance last time was his best since he won the Wells Fargo in 2017, and ranks as one of the best of his career. It could well pay to take the hint, with the putter likely to come to the party this time.
It's no surprise to see money coming for Mito Pereira after his 'big brother' (Niemann is actually significantly younger, but far more experienced) won last week. He's one of the Korn Ferry Tour graduates to have impressed and the same is true of Cameron Young, who won a junior tournament here once but, like Niemann, could suffer a hangover.
Instead I'm inclined to give AARON WISE another chance, a fortnight after he let us down a little in Phoenix.
Wise hit the ball terribly there after an encouraging start to the year at Torrey Pines, but while down the field at Riviera, we saw the necessary ball-striking improvements as he ranked a solid 24th with his approaches and gained strokes off the tee.
He'll need to improve again, but there are echoes of 2021 when he arrived here with form figures of MC-66-MC-65, only to shoot a pair of 64s over the first two rounds to hold a three-shot lead at halfway.
Both those two have had a chance to win top-class PGA Tour events over the last fortnight and Smotherman could well emulate them having began this week off the radar, despite finishes of 11th and 33rd in his last two starts.
Last time out he sat fifth at halfway before struggling a little over the weekend at Pebble Beach, before which a closing 66 at the tough South Course saw him finish just shy of the places at Torrey Pines, and he looks to be finding his feet as he eliminates the ruinous rounds we saw earlier in the season.
Donald's approach play was superb in Phoenix, where he was annoyed to miss the cut by a single shot. It was also very good in the Sony Open, where he finished 27th, as it had been last summer when 16th in the 3M Open, and when 13th in the Byron Nelson.
These sporadic performances underline that he's far more likely to struggle than he is to challenge the places, however he's a longtime Florida resident with four top-10s here at PGA National, and it remains the sort of course where he could pop up if avoiding big mistakes at the wrong time.
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