Darren Fichardt's miserable Open record means he was the first name I looked for on the tee sheet. The 50-year-old has played in seven of them and six have featured a round of 80-plus. The first five ended in missed cuts, then last year he finally made it, only to fall down to last place come Sunday evening. Rounds of 80-78 might've had him wishing he hadn't made the weekend after all.
Hand on heart, his young compatriot DYLAN NAIDOO wouldn't have been first choice in terms of a player with whom to take Fichardt on, but I do think he ought to be clear favourite. For starters, he's close to a shot per round better than John Axelsen at the moment, the Dane not yet fulfilling his potential on the HotelPlanner Tour. Last week, playing on the side of the mountain in Europe, worlds away from this, he wasn't far off last.
And as for how Naidoo stacks up with Fichardt, the head-to-head reads 5-0-1 in his favour this year, or 11-5-1 if you break it down by round. In other words, two-thirds of the time he's outscored Fichardt over 18 holes; never has he lost to him over 72. Naidoo is proving a better golfer right now and the SA Open champion, a victory which came by the sea, has played some decent golf on the DP World Tour more recently.
Fichardt has been doing OK on the Legends Tour but this is completely different and while I understand why he might be given some credit by the market for his experience, one look at his Open record tells you that it is not merited in this case. Again, the asterisk is there to explain why this selection isn't in my staking plan. The double with Oosthuizen pays just shy of 4/1.
Backing a debutant from the US isn't necessarily the way you'd want to be heading into the afternoon on day one of the Open, but MATT MCCARTY impressed in Scotland last week and looks the right type. His short-game is good, he's accurate off the tee, he's contended recently on the PGA Tour, and he adds an intriguing layer to the top left-hander market. Top debutant is also one in which he can compete.
But my interest is in this three-ball where he's in with Shaun Norris, whose Open record is very poor, and Angel Hidalgo, who has been struggling. Hidalgo came through qualifying just as he did last year, but that ended in rounds of 77-76 for a wide-margin missed cut and his long-game last week was troublingly poor. It's hard to see how he turns it around even if I could see him improving at a lower level soon enough.
Norris looks more of a threat but shot 73-76 to miss the cut here in 2019 and his best Open finish in five tries is 61st. His best round one position is only slightly superior having been 58th after a 71 at Birkdale a long time ago, but essentially he's been out of this very early every single time. The same looks likely come Thursday evening.
As a final note on this one, McCarty is close to the top 50 in the world in DataGolf's rankings. Norris is outside the top 200, Hidalgo is outside the top 400, and siding with the best player at odds-against is an easy decision despite the unknowns surrounding the fact that he's never been tested in this way before.
I was somewhat keen on Aaron Rai a month or so ago, partly because of a Scottish Open win in rainy conditions, but also a strong record in Ireland and at Harry Colt's Wentworth. The thing is he's definitely not playing as well as he was a few months ago and as he's a somewhat rigid player, who thrives on surgical golf, deep down I don't have him marked as the type who is genuinely suited to links golf.
HARRY HALL might be, as he grew up playing a cliffside course in Cornwall and has since developed one of the very best short-games in you'll find. That short-game has powered a run of seven top-25s in succession, one of which came in the PGA Championship, and it was not at all surprising to see him qualify for the Open with no fuss at all a couple of weeks ago.
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