Anyone with an eye on golf social media around Christmas will know that it's the time of year when Augusta National sends out its batch of Masters invites, and early indications are that the field for the 2024 edition will be even smaller than usual.
At the time of writing there are 77 players likely to take part, plus any who qualify either through winning a PGA Tour event or reaching the top 50 in the world the week prior to the Masters, and the winner of January's Latin America Amateur Championship.
Whatever the final number, it won't affect place terms. They will, as has become standard, be generous – at least on the face of it. You can expect to be getting paid down to 10th or 12th place, making it one of the best events to bet on even if my own record in the first men's major of the year suggests otherwise.
Those place terms also have the effect of squeezing prices to a quite dramatic extent, making the antepost market – paying down to fifth or sixth – quite different. There are almost certainly a number of genuine potential contenders whose odds come the spring will be considerably shorter, although of course the barometer here is their exchange price.
Those with the biggest upside generally come with the greatest risk, and that's certainly true of WILL ZALATORIS.
A debut runner-up in 2021, Zalatoris flew home for sixth place a year later before missing the 2023 renewal due to a serious back injury which kept him out from the Match Play in March all the way through to December.
That means he boasts impeccable course credentials and why wouldn't he. Augusta has long been among the best examples of a second-shot golf course you'll find in the professional game, and in that department Zalatoris at his best is virtually peerless.
Champ is one of a small number of players who have been priced up despite not yet being in the field. Quite why he's quoted by every major firm I have absolutely no idea but there he is, 250/1 generally and 300/1 with Sky Bet and BetVictor.
Here's the important bit: Sky Bet will make bets on non-qualifiers void; BetVictor will settle them as losers. Before placing a bet with any firm, be sure to check their rules, because when backing non-exempt players they're absolutely key. Most bookmakers will refund anyone who doesn't play but some will not and in certain cases rules are vague at best.
Thomas's 2023 doesn't need going over again but suffice to say it was poor, so poor that for some he was a controversial Ryder Cup pick having failed to reach the revised FedEx Cup Playoffs.
But after playing to a decent but unspectacular level in another away defeat for the USA in Rome, Thomas confirmed his return to form with top-fives in the Nedbank and then the Hero Challenge, and as a two-time major champion he has the requisite upside from this sort of price.
Some firms have Lee as short as 25/1 for the Masters, with 66/1 the very best you'll get, and I can't help but feel the US Open is the better fit. This is the major he placed in last year, at a course with little in the way of rough don't forget, and it might just be his best chance of 2024.
Lee had earlier contended at Sawgrass, playing in the final group alongside champion Scottie Scheffler, and he's gone from strength to strength since, ending the year in fabulous form. He's got a full PGA Tour card for the first time and there's so much more to come from a player with real superstar potential.
And while Kaymer found comfort in being able to putt from around these big greens, I do believe Lee's impeccable short-game could be a real asset, along with his length. His approach play, hit and miss at the best of times, is the concern but it would worry me more at Augusta than here.
With a strong record in majors already, I don't think anyone would be surprised if he turned up to this one at considerably shorter odds – and with the confidence to go ahead and better last season's fifth place. Having him on-side at 66s and bigger might look great business in the near future.
DataGolf currently rank Henley 10th in the world, he boasts a strong enough Sawgrass record, he's a regular contender at Ross's Sedgefield Country Club, and he was 54-hole leader in the US Open at Torrey Pines a couple of summers ago.
Having contended again at Augusta in April on his way to his best-ever major finish, Henley was then 14th at LACC where his arrow-straight but not particularly powerful driving was far from the ideal formula.
If Henley continues to play like a top-20 player (he's officially ranked 24th, too) then 150/1 has to look big at a course that should suit much more than those two out in California, and the fact he's likely to play a couple of events in the run-up also helps. Henley has contended a couple of times in the Memorial, and I'd like to see him play Colonial again after an encouraging top-20 in May.
Few reading this will really believe he's on the cusp of becoming a major champion, but Pinehurst might just be the sort of venue to throw up another slight surprise. These two selections are both playing superbly and could go off considerably shorter.
Brian Harman's Open rout last July in some ways demonstrates the pitfalls in antepost golf speculation. Harman had been 12th in Scotland a week earlier, sixth in the Open a year earlier, yet was still sent off at three-figure prices with up to a dozen places available.
Those backing him in January gained little bar fact that they can always say they backed Brian Harman to win the Open seven months before it happened, and with the weather and the length of time between now and tee-off in mind, this is always going to be the major that makes the least antepost appeal.
If you're looking for a yankee selection then consider reliable former Open runner-up Xander Schauffele at 33s or the still-improving Max Homa at 40/1 after he bagged his first major top-10 finish at Hoylake. Indeed Schauffele in particular does look a touch overpriced given his average SP in majors over the last few years is closer to the 18/1 mark.
At bigger odds, Sahith Theegala could look a decent bit of business and in general US players tend to be underrated, a comment which could apply to Henley once more.
On the latter, I will say there are echoes of Harman, who was performing to a similar standard at around this time a year ago. But as with Harman, you might well get a similar price and double the places come July.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 30/12/23
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