Ben Coley previews a long-awaited Ryder Cup, where expected USA dominance doesn't mean a home player will necessarily top-score. Get his best bets.
- Selections first posted via our free Ryder Cup guide at midday on Friday September 17; prices subject to change
- Scroll down for top combined, top USA and top European scorers
Outright and correct score
1pt USA to beat Europe 17-11 at 14/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt USA to beat Europe 16.5-11.5 at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
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At last the Ryder Cup is upon us, but while a one-year delay might've helped the spectacle, it could be against Europe. For starters, ongoing travel restrictions mean there will be very few away fans at Whistling Straits. Secondly, the emergence of Collin Morikawa is now complete, and Jordan Spieth is in the side. He almost certainly would not have been had the event taken place on schedule.
The impact on Europe, from a playing perspective, is harder to assess. It's possible Bernd Wiesberger would not have featured whereas perhaps Victor Perez or Danny Willett would; Padraig Harrington would've still had to decide which of his elder statesmen to leave out, though it's fair to speculate Justin Rose may have made the side perhaps at Ian Poulter or Shane Lowry's expense.
The positive of course is that in Jon Rahm they have the sport's best player. I'm just not sure it'll be enough.
All of this is hypothetical but the absence of meaningful support really is a worry. Yes, their Solheim Cup counterparts overcame it and will serve as inspiration, but it's still a factor in favour of the hosts in a competition which is already tilted in that direction. The USA have not won on European soil since 1993. Europe's apparent dominance meanwhile is not necessarily reflected overseas, where they lost in 2008 and 2016, and should've lost in 2012.
Top combined points scorer
4pts Jon Rahm to be the top combined points scorer at 8/1 (General)
1pt Xander Schauffele to be the top combined points scorer at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
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It would be easy to think that to find the top combined points scorer at a Ryder Cup, first you have to decide who will win it. But that isn't necessarily the case: several individuals have produced leading performances on losing teams. In 2016, rookie Thomas Pieters scored four points from five, more than any American, despite a runaway win for the hosts. Five of the last 10 players to win this market outright did so despite being beaten.
Instead, the key is to be able to predict who will play in all five sessions. Back in 1981, three US players won four from four and topped the combined scorer charts as a result. Since then, every player to have done so played in all five (or four at Celtic Manor) with the exception of one. Remarkably, Ian Poulter was left out of the Friday afternoon fourballs at Medinah, one which went badly for Europe. It goes to show how fine the margins are between being considered a great captain, and one who made a fatal mistake, because Jose Maria Olazabal's recall of a fresh and motivated Poulter to inspire Europe on Saturday looks retrospectively like a stroke of genius.
Rahm has come a long way since playing a bit-part in 2018 and will surely be involved in every session unless he asks not to be, assuming as I'm prepared to that last week's minor stomach bug is nothing to worry about. The question is with whom, and I can only guess, which is not a comfortable position to be in. Most likely is that Rahm does not have a permanent partner, whatever happens; that he perhaps gets a run-out with someone like Paul Casey or Poulter, but maybe with Fleetwood or even Hovland, albeit surely not with Sergio Garcia.
Whoever he's with, Rahm can be relied upon to deliver and I quite like his controversial decision to play on the PGA Tour the week before, something nobody else has chosen to do. It not only means he should be sharp, but that he has something to keep his mind away from next Friday and that leading role he'll be expected to perform. That he didn't perform as he has been may not be by accident; either way it's not worth dwelling upon.
Schauffele bagged three points from five at the Presidents Cup and now makes his Ryder Cup debut, where he'll surely tee off with his friend and Presidents Cup partner, Patrick Cantlay.
If that's the case, I struggle to understand how you reach prices of 10/1 Cantlay and 18/1 Schauffele, as Paddy Power have done. They're very similar, remarkably so in fact, and sit next to each other in the world rankings. Cantlay has more wins lately, but Schauffele has performed much better in majors, and took Olympics gold in Tokyo.
Yes, Cantlay won the FedEx Cup, but Schauffele pipped him by a shot in the final event. Before that, Cantlay won the BMW Championship courtesy of a brilliant putting display and serious grit, but while that might give him a form edge it is paper thin, particularly after Schauffele's performance at a more suitable course in East Lake.
If they're beaten in that first session there's still a good chance they're given a second bite of the cherry in a different format. Either way something will have to go badly wrong for Thomas to play fewer than four matches and a winning start on Friday, which these two will be odds-on to produce, can set him up for another huge week in which he dances every dance.
Plenty can still go wrong but Thomas is worth a bet at the prices, having not only top-scored for the US in Paris, but in Australia at the 2019 Presidents Cup, too. In fact he's played three professional team events for his country, hasn't yet missed a session, and has scored a minimum of three-and-a-half points in each of them. Of the 33 players he's lined up alongside, only Dustin Johnson has outscored him, and that was in 2017 when Thomas was a rookie.
It's an outstanding return for the real Captain America and he's key to their chances.
Those seeking a second pick should strongly consider Schauffele, but he's essentially the same price as Cantlay here and not considered especially good value.
COLLIN MORIKAWA, who is 10/1 in a place and yet alongside Schauffele in the combined betting, is more tempting, and surely the Open champion is sent out on Friday morning. At the time of writing he is a big enough price to go in as a saver, but not at anything shorter than 9/1.
Regular readers will know that siding with favourites is not my first instinct, but Rahm was virtually the same price to win a full-field event on the PGA Tour a week prior to this. Winning three or more points from five matches in a Ryder Cup isn't easy, but it's far easier than winning a 72-hole tournament against 155 rivals, and given that McIlroy is yet to miss a session, I don't see why Rahm should be expected to now.
Another factor here is that there are four 40-somethings in the European side. Paul Casey is particularly fit but even he might struggle to play five matches, and we're talking about one of Europe's standout performers in 2021. That furthers my belief that the big guns will have to go to battle again and again, and perhaps SHANE LOWRY will prove to be one of them.
Those two beaten Europeans who top-scored, Pieters and Poulter, were both wildcards, and Pieters was a rookie. Lowry, already a major and WGC winner, thoroughly deserves his place in the team and is a big-time performer who won't fear anybody. His form this year makes him a key man for Padraig Harrington, too.
For those reasons I think he'll go out in the first session, possibly with McIlroy, and if that's the case I'd rather take a chance on Lowry enjoying a dream debut. It was alongside McIlroy that Pieters starred before winning his singles match, and the former has been a bit disappointing in that format lately. He's also less than half the price of his Olympics teammate.
With Hatton and Fitzpatrick struggling, Bernd Wiesberger probably not a key part of Harrington's long-term plans and those veterans needing to be correctly handled, this market should be won by either Rahm, Hovland, McIlroy, Fleetwood or Lowry. Go with the two who have won majors since the last Ryder Cup, and look made for the format.
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Posted at 1200 BST on 17/09/21
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