The European Tour has just about had time to recover from an emotional victory for Richard Bland at the Betfred British Masters. Playing in his 478th event on the circuit, the 48-year-old defied all logic to finally get off the mark less than a fortnight ago, before heading home for a lamb dinner on Tuesday. It was a fabulous spectacle on a famous course, a demonstration of how fine the margins are between success and failure, and how much fortune plays its part in this sport.
It was notable that Fred Couples and Vijay Singh extended their congratulations, not something you typically see after a gruelling Sunday of trademark European Tour drama. There was no such message from Phil Mickelson and I doubt very much he owes Bland his thanks, but it has undeniably been an inspired fortnight for the elder statesmen of a game which no longer has an initiation process, where there's no such thing as being old enough, and the only question is are you good enough.
Bland now heads to Denmark for the renamed Made In Himmerland with the weight lifted and he's a realistic contender here given what was an imperious ball-striking display, by no means his first recently. Whether he can go again or not, it's very much worth noting that a British player won the British Masters, after South Africans had dominated in the t-shirt weather of the Canary Islands, as well as in Kenya before that.
Here at Himmerland, a resort course just south-west of Aalborg, a bright weekend is forecast, but there will still be some chill in the air and just enough breeze to keep them honest. Expect then the Scandinavian contingent to thrive as they so often do, or else the British and Irish players to prove as comfortable here as they are back home. Indeed in a fortnight of Challenge Tour action in Sweden we've had a Scottish champion, and a Swede who lost a play-off to 1000/1 outsider Felix Mory, born close to France's border with Belgium.
Fox missed the cut here in 2019 but that's just not worthwhile evidence, as it was the third of seven tournaments in succession in which he failed to make the weekend. At the time, he was plainly suffering from some kind of post-breakthrough hangover, and there's nothing to be learned from that run of performances.
Fast-forward two years and the last time we saw him on the European Tour, Fox struck the ball extremely well to hit the frame in the Saudi International, a significantly stronger event won by Dustin Johnson. Granted, he loves that course, one which allows him to open his shoulders, but I've a feeling he'll like it here, too.
Himmerland is a par-71 whose intensity is directly related to the wind. Right now, it's only set to play a significant role on Thursday, but the course is so exposed that, just as at Kiawah Island last week, anything more than a zephyr can make a significant difference. That looks ideal for Fox, who has produced much of his best golf under cool, breezy conditions on seaside links courses in the UK, but doesn't want a situation where everyone is being blown off course and short-game skills become of greater importance.
All of that suggests we can take a favourable view of 20th in the Canary Islands Championship, where he might've been by the coast but would've much preferred a stiffer test. Subsequently, he finished 34th at The Belfry, improving on a missed cut there last year, and throughout both of these his long-game was excellent.
The same was true here in 2019. Southgate led the field in driving and ranked fourth in ball-striking, and while strokes-gained numbers from that event are not entirely accurate, they're probably close enough to serve as a useful guide. Southgate gained strokes off the tee, on approach and with the putter, only to lose a handful around the greens, arguably the most volatile of the four new-world strokes-gained metrics.
The last two of those came here and in 2019, he was bang in the mix at the weekend only to fade away as his putter began to misbehave. At 18th on Tour for strokes-gained putting he's back to his best in that department and shouldn't be far away from the top of the leaderboard if he can avoid the odd ruinous drive, which should be much easier to do than when producing a tidy weekend at the Brabazon a fortnight ago.
Course specialist Chris Paisley, who was third in 2017 and fourth in 2019, has to be considered at 100/1. He's another who demonstrates that putting has been really important here (it isn't always, honest) and I'm hoping he hasn't put us all away by confessing that his long-game was "a shambles" in the British Masters.
Richie Ramsay has let slip some promising positions this season and could be close to putting it all together at a course he should enjoy, but I am drawn to the potential of MIN WOO LEE at around the 80/1 mark, with 100s on offer in a place.
This young Aussie is a big talent who could go far if he can find some consistency, which has been made difficult by his status and the events of the past 18 months. That said, two starts back he produced some quality golf to finish 28th in a World Golf Championship won by Collin Morikawa, and his sole start since then ended in a share of 21st at The Belfry.
The Frenchman has made eight of 10 cuts this season as he works his way towards a big performance, his best so far coming last time when 30th. Guerrier was fourth at halfway there and it's the second time since last summer that he's had a big chance after 36 holes, having been clear in the Portugal Masters.
At this level, anyone making cuts as consistently as he is merits respect and if he can improve his iron play a shade, he's good enough to complete the transition to European Tour winner having won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2017. Both of those titles came under similar scoring conditions to those expected, and his best form at this higher level has come on exposed courses in Portugal and Oman.
Again, he has form here having signed off with a six-under 65 for 20th in 2015, and his best European Tour finish came in Sweden, but it's Gonnet's recent efforts which catch the eye. He was fifth in Kenya and has made two cuts in three starts since, and it's been courtesy of quality iron play, very much his strength when one of the better maidens on the circuit a decade or so ago.
After a long time in the wilderness, I've been quietly impressed by what he's done since returning to the Tour last year, and he signed off with a four-under 68 at The Belfry despite making a double-bogey on the final hole. Given how well he played here and the underlying positives in his ball-striking, 400/1 looks over the top.
More recently, he was 20th two starts back, 33rd in Austria despite a horrendous putting week and also 33rd in Kenya, his iron play consistently strong. This follows on from a good end to 2020, as he chased ninth in Cyprus with 25th in Dubai, where he led the field in approaches and ought to have been inside the top 10.
Last time he narrowly missed the cut at The Belfry and I think he's a better player than the one who finished 28th here in 2017, and then contended in the Challenge Tour event played at Himmerland the following summer having made his move with back-to-back 67s under difficult scoring conditions.
As with several of my selections, he has form in the UK and Ireland, winning at Mount Wolseley and finishing 15th and 25th on Scottish links courses and in far stronger fields when last he played there. This looks a good test of where he is, and ultimately I suspect he's better than the market says he is at a course he does know well.
Posted at 1900 BST on 24/05/21
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