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If Jordan Spieth is to win the Fort Worth Invitational for a second time, chances are he’ll need to find a different path than the one he followed in 2016, as he chipped, putted and giggled his way to victory on home soil.

Two years on and having been second in his title defence a year ago, Spieth isn’t demonstrating the confidence in his short game that we’ve seen on display here as much as just about anywhere. Instead, he’s getting by on some of the best approach work on the PGA Tour and while that’s a really good starting point here at Colonial, it may not be enough.

On the other hand, the last time he played a course where he owns a comparable record, he danced his way through the field to third place in the Masters. Having finished no worse than 14th in five visits to this course, it’s fair to draw comparisons when it comes to his comfort levels in these two events specifically and that underlines why he must be considered a big danger at 9/1.

Nominal putting improvements alone would likely earn Spieth a place in the frame here and he’s a much more tempting option than Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler or Justin Rose, none of whom look as well-suited to the layout. This is Spieth’s turf and he’s the man to beat.

Yet the nature of Colonial – a flat, twisting par 70 which demands shot-shaping precision – lends itself to each-way value, because there are players here who are entitled to step up markedly on fairly modest recent form now presented with a more suitable test.

One such example is Russell Knox, narrowly nominated as the headline selection in a staking plan made up of confident (relative to prices) selections.

Knox finished 21st and 24th on his first two starts here, both of which came prior to his first victory, and during those efforts demonstrated a love for the layout – he ranked fifth and second respectively in greens in regulation, immediately executing a game plan.

During his first visit, Knox spoke of his sadness at the loss of mentor Mike Flemming, who had told him this course would suit. “It’s cool to play a course the greats like Hogan played,” he said. “It’s kind of surreal, actually. It’s a real honour and I would love to join that Champion’s Board on the first tee one day.”

Of the layout itself, Knox confirmed that his mentor had been correct – it is a layout he feels suits him to a tee. “This is definitely one of my favourite courses,” he said. “You have to hit it straight and curve it both ways – it really is a gem.”

The shot-shaping requirements are similar to those presented by TPC River Highlands, site of Knox’s second PGA Tour success and a course where Spieth went on to win.

Last week, the pair played together during the final round of the Byron Nelson and there were some positive signs for Knox on the greens, where he ranked ninth for strokes-gained putting – a huge step up on his season-long ranking of 171st.

Interestingly, this upturn comes just weeks after Knox told sister Diane on the Secret Golf podcast that he’d been “holing putts for fun” in practice thanks to a putting aid his caddie has developed. “I hole everything,” he said, lamenting his inability to take that to tournament golf.

Knox was prepared to be patient, though.

“I know it’s in there, I know I’m capable,” he said. “My game is right where I need it to be. I’ve just got to keep doing what I’ve been doing. Tee-to-green, I know I’m good enough to win – but I’m going to have to make some putts.”

It must have been enormously encouraging for Knox to see the ball go in so frequently last week, then, and Colonial is a far more suitable venue when it comes to allowing the long-game to shine – a fact demonstrated by those two top-25 finishes in two visits which came before he elevated his game.

Knox ranks 36th in driving accuracy, 16th in proximity to the hole and 28th in par-four scoring average this season, stats which tend to make a Colonial winner, and if he putts as he did in Dallas last week there’s every hope he’s in the mix on Sunday.

Perhaps the price which surprises me most this week is the 50/1 offered about Xander Schauffele, who has to go in the staking plan despite a slight reservation as to the suitability of this course.

In fairness, he made the cut at Colonial last year and that alone is enough to suggest that he took to the place, when viewed through the prism of his miserable start to the year.

Schauffele had missed seven of nine cuts, only surviving until the weekend in Puerto Rico and at the Wells Fargo, and one week prior to visiting Colonial for the first time had again failed miserably in the Byron Nelson.

Yet he came here, drove it superbly, scored reasonably and started to build the foundations for a remarkable summer, one which saw him bag two victories at traditional, tree-lined golf courses including the TOUR Championship to earn rookie of the year honours.